Name: AI vs. The Dot Com Bubble
Uploaded: 2025-11-11T21:18:00Z
Duration: 4 min 22 s
Description: Streetwise host Jack Hough sat down with strategist Scott Wren to discuss how the AI-fueled market run stacks up against the dot-com boom.

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Sustainable Investing and the Wealth Transfer

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Streetwise host Jack Hough sat down with strategist Scott Wren to discuss how the AI-fueled market run stacks up against the dot-com boom.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251111/bd2e1a5b-1a6e-4543-8133-dcc63f69b5dc/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

AI vs. The Dot Com Bubble

Now, I know don't look a day over 25, but believe it or not, I was alive and working during the .com crash back in 2000. And so, what about people who compare now with then? There are some similarities, right? We've got a lot of tech concentration, a lot of the same stocks running up. What do you make of that comparison between now and then?

You know, we get that question, we've been getting it quite a bit. And I think when I look back on what was going on then, you had similarities. A small number of stocks that were really driving the S&P 500 higher. I think a big part of the difference is is just the quality of companies. And what I mean by that is back in, let's say when the market hit the high in March of 2000, those were companies that were built on future expectations. They were priced for what is probably going to happen down the road, products they were going to develop, services that were going to be in demand. You know, their revenues really weren't that great. They didn't have a lot of cashflow. You know, look forward to now, where these companies, these handful of companies, or maybe a little bit more that have really been carrying the S&P 500 higher, they're real companies. They have real revenues, real products, real cashflows, and so I think the quality of the companies are a lot better today.

Describe for me the trajectory of earnings from here. Not just the growth percentage, but who does it extend to, who benefits? My concern is that right now there's this massive sum being spent to build out data centers. And I read everyday about new kinds of companies that are involved there that are seeing unprecedented demand to the point where maybe they have a six month or a one year backlog of business, and they're struggling to give customers as much as they want. And so the fear in the back of my mind is, maybe the customers out there start double and triple ordering, and there's this big spending frenzy, but at some point, it just kinda slows. Or folks say, "Let's take a pause on the spending and wait 'til we see some of the benefits coming out." And then you see, you know, maybe it slips into reverse because maybe we inventory issues.

Well, you know, we certainly thought we would see some low double digit growth in data centers as we look through, really through the end of this decade. And I think, you know, coming into the year, you heard a couple of hiccups on AI spend as if it was going to slow down, maybe we aren't going to do as much, and that was part of what turned the market down and we had a good buying opportunity in late March and early April because of that. But I think that if you look at, of course, you know, tech companies or the small number, couple of companies that really are in communication services that are really helping push the market higher, those capex numbers have continued to come through. But certainly, we've talked about this a lot of times in the Investment Strategy Committee meetings, if you get any whiff of AI capex spend going down or not quite panning out, and it wouldn't probably have to be much of an adjustment, you know the S&P 500's gonna go down on that. And I think as we look, you know, at least through the end of next year, it's going to be growth tied to AI. That's where most of the capex is going, that's what, you know, you look at other segments of capex within the S7P 500, it's pretty flat, but the AI is just going up. So I think for the time being, the growth looks pretty reliable. And I think when we look at our target for year-end next year for the S&P 500, which is 7,500, I mean, the way we're gonna get there are these big growth companies continuing to knock the cover off the ball.