Name: Bitcoin as 'Digital Gold'
Uploaded: 2024-03-19T13:40:00Z
Duration: 3 min 48 s
Description: On the Barron’s Streetwise Podcast, Jack Hough pushes back against one of Bitcoin’s most popular valuation models.

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On the Barron’s Streetwise Podcast, Jack Hough pushes back against one of Bitcoin’s most popular valuation models.

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Bitcoin as 'Digital Gold' 

Bitcoin's hitting new highs, it's difficult for people to figure out how much further it might have declined because you can't really size it up like you would a stock. You don't have earnings, you don't have cash, flows and dividends, and so on, so that's a challenge for people. J.P. Morgan has come up with a methodology that they use to try to figure out a fair price for bitcoin. Can you tell me about that methodology and what you thought of it?

So, J.P. Morgan's framework, the main assumption being made and then we can dive into the details, is that bitcoin is basically "digital gold," so a store of value in the digital age. And actually if you think about it, the crypto and the metal have a lot of similar characteristics, so they're both in limited supply, they're both durable, they're both fungible. So fungible that means, one ounce of gold is basically the equivalent of another ounce of gold and the same is applicable to bitcoin. They can both be divided into smaller units and so on. And now let's look at the value of gold being held specifically for investment purposes, and what can that tell us about the value of bitcoin? And if you want, we can kind of dig into those assumptions and some of those numbers more, and tell you what that framework spits out in light of current market prices.

Yeah, I'd love to.

So the amount of gold being held privately for investment purposes is 47,400 tons, something like that. And at today's gold price, that is worth about $3.3 trillion. Let's divide that by the number of bitcoins in circulation today, which is something like 19.6 million coins, and we get a theoretical price target of $166,000 per bitcoin.

$166,000, so going off just that number, if you don't take it any further, these new highs that Bitcoin is hitting, that's only the start, it has much higher to climb from here. With an asset where it just defies efforts usually to do any kind of math on the valuation, it's a start. I have some concerns, starting with the assumption that bitcoin should be worth what gold is worth 'cause they're roughly similar things. If they were roughly similar things and you just add bitcoin to gold, you'd be like kind of doubling the supply, there'd be a lot more of this thing you were after bitcoin slash gold, so wouldn't it be worth less? That's strange to me.

So actually what you are seeing is a substitution, what I mean by that is you've actually seen ETF outflows into gold ETFs, and we all know about the strong massive inflows going into the newly introduced bitcoin ETFs. So you actually, you're getting investors pulling money out of gold ETFs and putting it into bitcoin ETFs. Now Jack, you're gonna ask me if that's happening, how did gold just hit a new record? Coincidentally, gold and bitcoin hit a new record. Actually, if you look over the past year, over the past two years, gold demand has largely been driven by Central Bank buying. Countries all over the world trying to reduce their reliance on the dollar, Russia, China, et cetera, they wanna try to reduce their reliance on the dollar, they wanna diversify their reserves and they've been stopping up gold.

So if Central Bank demand cools off at some point in the future, and this trend with investor flows continues, we might ultimately see that substitution effect in the price, like we might ultimately see bitcoin keeps climbing and gold starts falling.

Potentially, absolutely.