Name: Bond Funds or Individual Bonds?
Uploaded: 2024-03-05T14:52:00Z
Duration: 5 min 5 s
Description: Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Schwab, says it might not matter. Plus, the outlook for yields and the national debt.

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Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Schwab, says it might not matter. Plus, the outlook for yields and the national debt.

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Bond Funds or Individual Bonds?

Kathy, what do we make of this bond market? We started the year, what, just below 4% on the 10-year yield, and there might be people out there that were thinking, "Darn it, I meant to lock in some bond yields here and I've missed my chance." And now we've got a high-ish or higher than expected reading on inflation and bond yields have backed up a bit. Where are we headed now? Are they gonna stay here? I think the 10-year, I saw is at a 4.30, or thereabouts. What do you expect for the rest of the year? How long will the getting be good on these yields?

Yeah, it has been, Jack, quite a rollercoaster this year. You know, we ran all the way up to 5.02 on the 10-year treasury and fell back to 3.80-something and now we're about four and a quarter. You know, our view is that the overall trend in yields will continue to be lower in the second half of the year. We do expect the Fed to lower rates 'cause inflation's coming down, but that's gonna be a bumpy ride too. It's not gonna be a smooth path.

You need a lot of money to diversify a bond portfolio of individual issues properly. I've heard people say, "Well, I wanna own individual bonds because I have a maturity date, and I know what I'm getting, and I know when it comes due, I'll get this money back," and so on. "I don't wanna have a fund because it's not defined when I get the money back in the front." Is that a legitimate concern, or is that a misplaced concern?

Well, I mean I think it, again, it comes back to the individual investor, right? So if you are the type of person who, say, would look at the value, the net asset value of your fund going down, and say, "Oh my gosh, I'm losing money," and sell when it's down even if you have a five-year time horizon, then you probably would be better off in individual bonds 'cause you'd be more likely to hold them 'cause you know what you're getting, when you're getting, and your principal back at par. But a fund can perform just as well as individual bonds, sometimes better. It all depends on sticking to your discipline and your holding period. So we've done the math to look at performance of, say, a diversified fund versus individual bonds, kinda similar kinda assets in it. And, you know, a bond fund is just a collection of bonds, right? So we've looked at the performance of the two and if you start out and say, "I'm gonna hold this for five years," and they're very similar portfolios, chances are you're gonna end up with kind of the same outcome at the end.

What do you think when you look at the level of the federal debt in the US? Do you think , I mean, I don't, I used to panic about it 20 years ago. Now, I feel like I'm not as panicked, although the numbers say I should be much more panicked. Is there a path to a happy outcome or a benign outcome here? You must think about this as a bond strategist, about, you know, what becomes of that over the next 20 years? What do you think happens? What's the path there?

Well, the path should be that our debt grows more slowly than our economy. And then that debt-to-GDP would level off and start to come down. So, that's, it's sustainable in the sense that the, I think the average yield right now we're looking at on the treasury market's still 2.7%. So, you know, we have a huge economy, generates trillions and trillions of dollars. We have trillions of dollars in assets. There's no question that we can't pay our bills, right? We can, but the trajectory is not very good because that debt is growing faster than the economy. And at some point, either you run into what they call crowding out where we can't do the things we wanna do because we're spending more money on the debt. And if we were to issue even more, would investors say, "Hey, you know, you've run up so much debt, we need a higher yield than that." And it sort of compounds itself. We haven't reached that point. There's nobody who can tell you with any precision what that point, that magic number is, or if we'll ever get there in our lifetimes. But when we talk about sustainability, we worry about just the fast growth rate in debt relative to the economy. Now, having said that, we've had really good news on productivity. So if you're a country that's issuing debt, or any entity, really, and that debt produces faster real growth, then there's something to be said for that being used well. So if that allows us to grow at a faster rate because we have higher productivity, not necessarily bad investment.