Name: Fed Keeps Rates Steady as Iran War Clouds Outlook
Uploaded: 2026-03-18T19:26:00Z
Duration: 1 min 58 s
Description: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed uncertainty about how the conflict in Iran will affect forecasts for rate cuts.

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed uncertainty about how the conflict in Iran will affect forecasts for rate cuts. Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta/Associated Press

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed uncertainty about how the conflict in Iran will affect forecasts for rate cuts.

Fed Keeps Rates Steady as Iran War Clouds Outlook

Is the rate forecast not changing because you think the oil shock is gonna be temporary or because you want to be sure your position in case growth starts to slow?

And the thing I really want to emphasize is that nobody knows. You know, the economics effect could be bigger. They could be smaller. that could be much smaller or much bigger. We just don't know. So people are writing down something that seems to make sense to them, but have no conviction. You know, to your point, you know, if we have a long period of much higher gas prices, that's gonna weigh on consumption. That'll weigh on disposable personable income, and it'll weigh on consumption. But we don't know if that's gonna happen. It could be something quite different than that. We might have much lower than expected pass through. So, you know, this is one of those SEPs where a number of people mentioned if we were ever gonna skip an SEP, this would be a good one because we just don't know. So I wouldn't say there's a conviction that this is gonna go through quickly or not quickly. It's just you gotta write something down. And this is something that people wrote down. And you know, we don't debate how long. How do you do that? We wouldn't be able to debate what the length of or size of these effects would be. We just have to kind of make an individual statement. And you also, you know, what you've written down before, you'll be reluctant to move too far away from that just because you don't know. It's so unclear what the direction from this particular end will be. Meanwhile, the growth has been solid, and inflation, the overshoot is mainly from the goods and tariffs and, you know, the labor market, the unemployment rate, of course, is little changed since September. You have very, very low break-even rate, apparently, for new jobs with little growth in either demand or supply. But the U.S. economy is doing, you know, pretty well. It's just we don't know what the effects of this will be, and really, no one does.