Name: Here's How High Oil Typically Rises Ahead of Recessions
Uploaded: 2026-03-05T14:31:00Z
Duration: 1 min 31 s
Description: Barron's newsletter editor Josh Schafer breaks down the key oil chart for stock investors to watch as conflict in the Middle East intensifies.

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Barron's newsletter editor Josh Schafer breaks down the key oil chart for stock investors to watch as conflict in the Middle East intensifies.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260305/7c608cf9-4843-4d07-8666-13d1009bbd60/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Here's How High Oil Typically Rises Ahead of Recessions

Rising conflict in the Middle East has shaken markets this week, and oil is at the center of the conversation. In the first two trading sessions following the escalation in Iran, Brent crude oil increased 12% while WTI oil added 11%. Brent crude peaked at about 81 bucks per barrel, while WTI hit nearly 75 bucks a barrel. The prevailing market take has been the bottom might not be in for stocks until the top is in for oil. This has raised a popular question. At what price is the increase in oil a real problem for the stock market? Is it a hundred bucks, maybe 110? I just don't really think that's the right question right now. Take a look at this chart from Morgan Stanley chief investment officer, Mike Wilson. It shows year-over-year increases in WTI crude oil. Recession areas are shaded. Two things stand out here. For one, nearly every recession on this chart is proceeded by a 75 to 100% year-over-year increase in oil. Second, this just isn't a conversation about levels. It's about rate exchange. Markets can handle different levels of oil prices. Stocks have done fine with low oil prices. Stocks have done fine with high oil prices. When stocks start stumbling is when oil moves higher at a rapid pace. Right now, that's just not quite happening. Wilson writes that unless oil prices spike in a historically significant manner and remain elevated, recent events are, quote, "unlikely" to change his bullish views on US stocks. The situation is, of course, ongoing, but for now, keep your eyes glued to those oil prices and just how quickly they're moving.