Name: How An Energy Shock Could Change The Inflation Story
Uploaded: 2026-03-17T20:34:00Z
Duration: 1 min 12 s
Description: A large spike in oil prices has sparked fears about inflation’s path forward. Barron’s Investor Circle newsletter editor Josh Schafer breaks down what to know.

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A large spike in oil prices has sparked fears about inflation’s path forward. Barron’s Investor Circle newsletter editor Josh Schafer breaks down what to know.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260317/740a983b-9795-42dd-86f0-89dded21af9b/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

How An Energy Shock Could Change The Inflation Story

Inflation is at the forefront of the conversation as the Iran War escalates. Let's break down where things stand right now. The latest data showed inflation was tame in February before the war broke out. Headline inflation rose just 2.4% in February, according to the latest Consumer Price Index, while core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, clocked in at 2.5%. But the issue for markets and the Federal Reserve is, this data just feels a bit outdated now. With the Iran War breaking out at the end of February, the most pressing question in markets right now is where inflation heads next as oil prices have surged in recent weeks. The average cost of a gallon of gas is now $3.58. That's up 22% from the average of $3.08 just a month ago. This is expected to be reflected in the March CPI data, where some economists estimate the surge in energy prices could push up headline inflation nearly one full percentage point. The result is a continually muddled outlook for the Fed. Investors have been hopeful for interest rate cuts, but experts argue those are not coming until the central bank has more clarity on how the war will impact inflation in the months ahead.