Name: How Rising Optimism Is Supporting Credit Markets and IPOs Like SpaceX
Uploaded: 2026-06-12T22:10:00Z
Duration: 4 min 49 s
Description: Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management weighs in on current market conditions for investors. This interview was filmed on June 9, 2026.

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Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management weighs in on current market conditions for investors. This interview was filmed on June 9, 2026.

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How Rising Optimism Is Supporting Credit Markets and IPOs Like SpaceX

Howard, I want to ask you a little bit about the equity markets, which is not necessarily your bailiwick, but I know you like to weigh in. Given the fact that stocks are record highs, we're looking at these three big IPOs, SpaceX, Anthropic, and Open AI coming with these huge valuations. What's your take on the stock market right now?

Andy, to me, if you wanna gauge the conditions in the stock market and use that to infer what the future holds, and I'm not talking about the future next month or next week, I'm talking about the next two to four years, let's say, intermediate term. I think the most important single indicator is to understand whether the market is currently being driven by optimism or pessimism. Everything else being equal, when it's driven by optimism you get higher prices relative to intrinsic value, which implies lower returns relative to the average. And I think there's no arguing that for the most part, I'll say since October the first of '22, which is a special date for a reason, it's when the Fed turned more dovish. In that period, which is now coming up to three and three quarter years, optimism has been in the ascendancy. Optimism is what permits things like the IPOs we're looking at. You can't have that in a pessimistic environment. So I think that you have to- And by the way, and the stock market has well more than doubled over that period, the S&P 500. So you have to recognize the ascendancy of optimism and you have to behave accordingly. And part of that means with everything you do, some part of your body has to be saying, "Yes, but how do we prepare for less optimistic times?"

All right, I want to ask you about the credit markets then. Where do you think we are in the cycle with the credit markets, and what do you think Kevin Warsh is going to do? And what should Kevin Warsh do? And Bruce, by the way, I'm gonna ask you the same two questions about equity and debt, so be prepared, okay.

Well, the credit markets have been on a tear for the most part of the last 17 years. You know, we came out of the global financial crisis as the stock market hit a low in March of '09. That was the low watermark for everything; stocks, credit, optimism, everything. And we've pretty much had uninterrupted progress since. Oh yes, well, there was this thing called the pandemic, but that was easily solved and it's certainly in the rear view mirror today. We had bout with inflation and we had to hike interest rates, but things have gone quite well. The economy has performed very well, we had the longest recovery in history and a slight setback, but again, performing very well. And I think our economy is the enemy of the world. So you take this all together with rising optimism and you get a market in which it's easy to borrow, the credit market is generous. And when the totality of conditions that I described takes place, fear recedes, skepticism declines, to some extent, due diligence declines, and willingness, eagerness takes over along with fomo. "If I don't cut the price of this loan, my competitor will make the loan and I'll have to look on." So this is what happens, I think the credit cycle has been very strong, it's gone on with the in interruption of the pandemic, probably the longest time in history. And so market conditions in credit are generous and borrowing is easy. And we have to bear that in mind and we have to try to uphold high standards on behalf of our clients.