Name: How The War in Iran is Reshaping Air Travel
Uploaded: 2026-05-08T16:00:00Z
Duration: 6 min 18 s
Description: Global aviation is facing one of the biggest energy crises as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stopped swathes of the world’s jet fuel from making it to the market. WSJ’s George Downs explains.

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Global aviation is facing one of the biggest energy crises as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stopped swathes of the world’s jet fuel from making it to the market. WSJ’s George Downs explains. Illustration: George Downs

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260508/0a9d93b3-3ec2-45dc-8767-518d03483e96/2/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Global aviation is facing one of the biggest energy crises as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stopped swathes of the world’s jet fuel from making it to the market. WSJ’s George Downs explains.

How The War in Iran is Reshaping Air Travel

This is a barrel of jet fuel. It's not to scale, obviously. They normally hold 42 gallons. The global aviation industry needs about 7.8 million of these per day to keep flying, with about 2 million barrels moving around the globe every single day. And 20% of them pass through just one place, here, the Strait of Hormuz, or at least they used to, except right now, it's effectively closed. The US-Israel war on Iran has led to both sides blocking ships from transiting the strait. To make matters worse, some refineries in the region have been damaged or destroyed during the conflict. And that has stopped one-fifth of the world's jet fuel from getting into circulation, but to make matters worse, it's also stopped one-fifth of the world's crude oil from making it to other jet fuel refineries who could potentially alleviate the problem.

So, we're talking about maybe 15 million barrels a day of crude oil and refined products that is disconnected from the global market.

I mean, what is happening now is the largest energy crisis we have ever faced in the history.

That's why the price of jet fuel and the cost of your summer vacation has skyrocketed. But even if this strait were to reopen tomorrow, getting jet fuel production back to pre-war levels and getting ticket prices down could take a long time. How much you're affected by the closure of the strait depends a lot on where you are in the world. Europe has historically sourced around a quarter of its jet fuel from Gulf nations via the strait, so its supplies could soon be running low.

In Europe, we have maybe six weeks or so jet fuel left.

But while supplies may be dwindling, ticket prices in the region aren't yet going too high. That's because here, many airlines hedge their fuel costs, effectively paying in advance for a certain quantity of fuel at a fixed price. Budget carrier EasyJet, for example, has hedged 70% of its fuel needs for the second half of 2026 at a price of $706 per metric ton, less than half the price of the current rate. That might ease the sticker shock for now, but as supplies dwindle, it might not last for long. Low-budget carriers with limited route flexibility could be particularly hard hit.

Like most net importing regions, the challenge is going to be sourcing alternative supply, but those volumes are gonna be increasingly sought after, not just by European countries, but by African countries, by Latin American countries, as the supply situation becomes more constrained.

The US, however, is a different story. Here, airlines do have access to more domestic refining capacity, some of which they even own. But even so, parts of the country are worried about their jet fuel supplies.

If you look at the country as a whole, you see that the US is well supplied, but when you start breaking it down by regions, what you see is a very different picture. The West Coast is importing about 25% of its requirements, and the problem that the West Coast of the US faces is that it's logistically disconnected from the rest of the United States, so you have this big refining center in the US Gulf Coast, which is producing far more than is consumed in that region. It's very difficult to route that product towards California and the other states bordering the Pacific Coast.

So, 85% of the imported jet fuel the West Coast needs actually comes from South Korea, one of the world's top five jet fuel exporters. But to make that fuel, South Korea needs crude oil, which comes from, you've guessed it, Gulf nations. What's more, unlike many EU airlines, US carriers tend not to hedge their fuel, meaning they can be directly exposed to shocks in pricing. That's led to some US budget carriers seeking $2.5 billion from the Trump administration as a necessary and targeted measure to stabilize operations and keep airfares affordable. And in Asia, airlines have already begun to feel the pinch. To ensure it has enough jet fuel for its own planes, China has stopped exporting altogether. And that's no small amount. China accounts for around 15% of all global seaborne jet fuel exports. That's impacted countries like Myanmar and Vietnam who are both major importers from China and are now running out of supply. Several carriers in the region have said they're reducing how much they're flying to make sure they have enough fuel to continue. So, what can airlines do to lessen the blow of skyrocketing fuel prices? Well, very little, given that fuel actually accounts for around 25% of a ticket. So far, some airlines have been increasing baggage fares or reducing the number of routes they fly, or simply passing the rising cost onto customers. In April, Germany's Lufthansa fast-tracked plans to ground some less profitable routes, leading it to scrap 20,000 flights across the summer season. Another trick airlines could deploy is called tankering, the practice of carrying enough fuel with you for the return journey so you don't have to fill up in a costly nation. The problem is, this stuff is heavy. The more of it you carry, the more of it you need to be able to take off, and airlines do complex calculations to make sure they're only carrying as much fuel as they need in order to save weight and save money, so running with a full tank has limited advantages. So, how long could this go on for?

It's gonna be very difficult for things to go back to normal quickly. There are significant lags in restarting the system. Yes, there are ships that are loaded inside the Strait of Hormuz, but we're talking about five or six weeks to transport crude to Asia, another couple of weeks to refine it, another few weeks to deliver that product. And then there's the question of restarting production, crude oil fields, which have been shut in. And also on the refining side, refineries have reduced the amount of crude that they're processing, or stopped operating altogether, or in some cases, sustained some damage.

Some analysts believe we could be looking at six to 18 months before the market fully recovers to pre-war levels, and that's if the war were to end today.

How the War in Iran Is Reshaping Air Travel

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