Name: Iran Cease-Fire Doesn't Mean It's All Risk-On for Markets
Uploaded: 2026-04-09T18:53:00Z
Duration: 1 min 12 s
Description: Barron's Investor Circle newsletter editor Josh Schafer explains why the cease-fire agreement between Iran and the U.S. isn't brining back a "goldilocks" environment for stocks just yet.

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Barron's Investor Circle newsletter editor Josh Schafer explains why the cease-fire agreement between Iran and the U.S. isn't brining back a "goldilocks" environment for stocks just yet.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260409/32c632a9-3afa-4965-a9cf-2eadf5c2923c/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Iran Cease-Fire Doesn't Mean It's All Risk-On for Markets

A two-week ceasefire in Iran has sent oil tumbling and stocks soaring. Investors are hopeful this means the worst of the war is behind us. That would mean oil prices have peaked and tanker flow through the Strait of Hormuz will slowly begin to normalize. And while the rally is certainly a welcome sign for markets, it also doesn't mean everything in the stock market instantly returns back to normal. While down significantly, oil prices are still elevated compared to the start of the war. Piper Sandler Chief Investment Strategist Michael Kantrowitz writes in a note to clients that where stocks go after this initial jolt still likely depends on where oil heads from here. With West Texas Intermediate crude oil hovering near 90 bucks a barrel, Kantrowitz believes both economic and earnings data can continue to broaden from here. That's a positive for stocks. But in order to return to a true Goldilocks scenario for the US equity market, where all factors are just right and the S&P 500 can rally back over 7,000, Kantrowitz says oil likely needs to fall back below 80 bucks a barrel. This is a reminder that while stocks are celebrating the all clear for now, there's still risk out there as the main catalyst for the recent drawdown, that's the rise in oil prices, still hasn't fully unwound just yet.