Name: Is China Experiencing ‘Premature Hubris?’
Uploaded: 2026-10-01T14:50:00Z
Duration: 3 min 7 s
Description: Kevin Rudd, former prime minister of Australia and Global President and CEO of Asia Society, breaks down China's hidden economic struggles and status of its military. This interview was filmed on Sept. 24, 2026 at Journal House during the United Nations General Assembly.

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Kevin Rudd, former prime minister of Australia and Global President and CEO of Asia Society, breaks down China's hidden economic struggles and status of its military. This interview was filmed on Sept. 24, 2026 at Journal House during the United Nations General Assembly.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20261001/f48f85fa-373e-4649-88ce-b4904a8e0007/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Is China Experiencing ‘Premature Hubris?’

What does China want, and exactly how weak or strong is the economy? I mean, I go to China and things look okay to me.

On the surface, most things do look okay in China, but look at rising youth unemployment. That is a massive problem in terms of the Chinese demographic and then social stability, and therefore, ultimately, political stability. And that's before Chinese manufacturing and the total economy has fully absorbed and diffused artificial intelligence, 'cause as we know, one of the productivity yields of AI is labor force reduction in labor-intensive industries. This is the global center of robotics. What happens to all those folks who have been working on assembly lines across China for the last 20 or 30 years? So therefore, the Chinese below the surface have a bunch of economic problems. So therefore, how strong are they? What Xi Jinping has sought to build is a strong China, what he calls a "qiangguo." He says that Mao Zedong caused China to stand up. Deng Xiaoping caused China to become rich or richer. Under Xi Jinping, we're making China strong. And that goes back to the narrative we discussed before about a co-equal strength of the United States. Militarily, beyond the drivers of the economy, including technology, militarily, the Chinese are doing well. They now have the largest surface fleet in the world. Bigger than the United States. Last count earlier this year was something in the order of 370 to 390 surface combatants in the PLA Navy against 270 to 290 here in the United States. Submarine force, U.S. slightly ahead, and certainly, further ahead in terms of the qualitative superiority of U.S. submarines, nuclear-powered attack-class submarines before we get onto ballistic missile submarines. So there are different measures of national power. The Chinese internal calculus is called comprehensive national power, zōnghé guólì, and they factor in the economy, technology, the military and other associated assets, including U.S. allies like ourselves. And if you look carefully at their public commentary year by year under Xi Jinping, they're saying this is getting better and better for us. So their strategic calculus is that they will emerge more powerful than America. I think there's a problem with that analysis because it underestimates the ability for America to reinvent itself and reinvent itself and reinvent itself, for which Silicon Valley is a classic example about how you constantly, frankly, make things new in this country. So I think the Chinese may be having a fit of premature hubris and that's dangerous 'cause it can give rise to excessive political self-confidence.