Name: John Arnold on Gambling and Vice
Uploaded: 2026-05-05T17:00:00Z
Duration: 7 min 33 s
Description: At WSJ’s Future of Everything in New York City, John Arnold discusses how prediction markets have altered sports betting and regulation of gambling. The full interview with John Arnold will be available this Sunday on WSJ's Take On the Week podcast.

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At WSJ’s Future of Everything in New York City, John Arnold discusses how prediction markets have altered sports betting and regulation of gambling. The full interview with John Arnold will be available this Sunday on WSJ's Take On the Week podcast.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260505/a518b9ca-046a-4f7f-9081-8f6078f1bd70/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

John Arnold on Gambling and Vice

I think in any market, whether it is you're trading stocks, you're trading commodities, or you're trading, you know, sports betting, anything, there's a difference between are you trying to make money or is this a form of entertainment? Right? And putting $20 down on the football game tonight, you know, makes that game more interesting. I think that is, you know, entertainment, I think, you know, that's what much of sports betting has been, you know, but that was kind of the first generation or the last generation of what sports betting was. And the sports betting today is not, "I'm gonna put $20 down on the game and wait, you know, five hours and see whether I won or lost." It is, "I'm gonna bet on the coin flip, I'm gonna bet on every play. I'm gonna do a 10-way parlay bet that pays off, you know, 2,000 to one if I hit, but you know, it was actually 10 bets in one." And I think maybe we need to kind of as society step back and like think about vice in general and like, first of all, like what's the definition of vice? And mine is, what are those things that we do where nobody's gonna say, "oh, you're doing more of that great job." Right? Like, "Oh, you're drinking more. Good for you." Right? Like watching more porn, you're like, great, you know. "You're gambling more, great." Right? And in those things, right, I think there's been this combination of that the ease of access and the product intensity has changed dramatically over the past, you know, 5, 10, 15 years. And we as society need to catch back up with it, right? We legalized marijuana because like the marijuana of the 80s and 90s was kind of, you know, relatively, you know, similar harm as alcohol, arguably, right? And we legalized alcohol and people could enjoy it responsibly. But the intensity of marijuana is very different today. The access to it is very different in many states, right? Kind of-

You're saying it's similar to gambling, where-

Kinda the same as porn.

The idea of, 'Oh, I'll place a bet" versus-10 way parlays, right?

Exactly, right. So like the friction to access, you know, all these, including gambling, is just changed dramatically. And the business model associated with it has changed dramatically. And if we as society take the friction to all these vices down to zero, and it's as simple as you pull out your phone and do three clicks and you gotta have a bet, then I think there's gonna be some real negative societal ramifications. And so what we've been thinking about is like, not, do you ban this, right? Not like no sports betting, no marijuana, no porn, all these things, right? But what are the right guardrails for these things? How do you try to minimize the harms, right? There is an entertainment component to it. There is an enjoyment component to it for most people, but there's also, you know, some who are irresponsible gamers, right? And how do you try to minimize the chance of that? And we need that framework around it. And it's important that as these industries are evolving and growing, that society's response to that comes along at the same time.

And you've argued that one way to, you know, you, Arnold Ventures looks a lot at gathering evidence, right? Like, how much do we know about the impact of this kind of vice on people's lives? But also you've been saying that currently the CFTC is regulating prediction markets, there's a dispute about whether or not states should continue in their role as regulating gambling in their borders. And you've said that maybe it should be the states who continue to regulate, at least on the sports betting part of things, right?

Yeah, certainly. So there's the question of can the CFTC regulate this and legalize sports betting nationally? And I think this is, you know, a question that is going through the courts today, right? CFTC was created in order to regulate commodity markets that serve two purposes. One is that allow transfer of risk between counterparties. So imagine, you know, the transfer of oil risk, the transfer of, you know, currency risk, interest rate risk, equity risk, right? And many prediction markets, you know, also serve that role. So kind of, you know, weather derivatives, even geopolitical or political events on prediction markets. I think, you know, you can argue that they can serve.

They serve a legitimate hedging purpose.

They can.

Yes.

Yeah. Do they today? Maybe, maybe not, but they can, right? And so I'm more partial to that.

Yeah.

Right. So kind of the risk transfer for hedging as well as price transparency. And what we've really focused on is kind of this kind of sports betting legalization in the prediction markets. And so there's this question, right? Like, is CFTC, like do they even have the power to regulate this and to authorize this sports betting components? And then there's kind of like the major doctrines question component to this, I think. And so there's the legal component that's going through the course today. Then there's like, again, going back to kind of the earlier discussion, if they can, should they, right? Gambling has traditionally been left to the states. There's kind of the 10th Amendment and delegation of powers that aren't enumerated. Go to the states. States have legal, you know, have been responsible for determining what's legal, how to regulate it. So Nevada and Utah share a long border. Nevada has decided to legalize most gambling, Utah has decided to ban most gambling, right? And that's what kind of the policy makers in each state have decided is best for their community, and I think that's fine. I think if this is done at the state level to gear it more towards what's right for the community and that have this history, long history of regulation, of gambling markets, about what products, what are the guidelines, what are the age, you know, what happens if, you know, people are gaming irresponsibly, all these questions have already been answered. There's already organizations set up. I think that's the natural place where this should be regulated. And we feel very strongly about that. Then there's like the second order of like, should states, if they have that ability, should they legalize sports betting, you know, on your device. And I think our communication to policy makers is the revenue, the tax revenue that's associated with that is very appealing, right? And, you know, if you find ways to add more revenue that is not a direct tax, like that'll draw in legislators, get very drawn to them. However, like you need to be aware of the downsides of this. This is not just free money to the state. There are real negative ramifications that come with this. And you should be aware of that. And if you weigh the positives and the negatives and decide, you know, we're gonna move forward with this, with this guardrails, then I think we're fine. But we wanna make sure that the decision makers are educated when they're making this decision. And they're not just talking to the gambling lobbyists.