Name: Kevin Hassett Compares AI Boom to 90s Computer Revolution
Uploaded: 2025-12-09T15:00:00Z
Duration: 3 min 40 s
Description: White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett draws a parallel between the computer revolution of the 90s, which acted as a positive supply shock allowing the Fed to let growth run despite low unemployment, and today's AI productivity boom.

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White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett draws a parallel between the computer revolution of the 90s, which acted as a positive supply shock allowing the Fed to let growth run despite low unemployment, and today's AI productivity boom. Photo: WSJ Leadership Institute

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251209/23a11c0b-2a2b-4683-aeb8-be8af9018062/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett draws a parallel between the computer revolution of the 90s, which acted as a positive supply shock allowing the Fed to let growth run despite low unemployment, and today's AI productivity boom.

Kevin Hassett Compares AI Boom to 90s Computer Revolution

Tomorrow, Kevin, the Fed will announce its latest interest rate decision and you have said, you said on Fox, you expect a 25 basis point cut. Then you said you want to see the Fed, quote, get to a much lower rate over the long run. How much lower?

Well, I think that what we have to do is recognize that, like in the nineties, we're in a potentially extremely transformative time. In the nineties, we had the computer revolution starting. It really kicked off in the middle of the nineties when, I would say Netscape Navigator is the thing that I view as like the breaking point. And then I was actually senior economist at the Fed working with Alan Greenspan trying to figure out the effect of the computer on the economy. I was in charge of that part of economic activity section. And Alan Greenspan was all over the fact that the computer was a positive supply shock. And so a lot of the board members were saying, we need to tighten, tighten, tighten, tighten because the unemployment rate is so low. But he's like, well, wait a minute. If you get technological change and you have a big supply shock, then maybe you can let it go, but you gotta watch and make sure that the inflation doesn't take off. But he believed in it, and I can remember an example of how in the weeds on this he was. Was that we were just getting, the problem was computers are getting better and better and the way that we measure inflation included the deflator for computers. And since computers are getting better and better, then the deflator would be like minus 15, minus 20%. And since computers were a big part of investment, then a lot of the reason why inflation was down was we're getting these big negative numbers for computers. And Alan asked me once, he said, well, what's happening to the deflator for communications equipment, which is also just computers? And it was going up and up and up and up. And he said, well, you gotta figure out why is communications equipment going up? And it turned out that they hadn't changed the bundle of things that they measured the price of communications equipment with. And they were still using like the analog switches like Josephine, and there were some third world countries that were still buying those things. And so that was the communications deflator, but we were all starting to buy.

Poppy: Okay.

Switches.

Poppy: So lesson learned.

And so we, lesson learned is that, I probably, just finish 10 seconds of the story. So that if you use the computer deflator to deflate communications equipment, then the inflation story was like even, even better. And Alan felt more comfortable sort of letting growth roll.

Poppy: Okay.

And I think that right now AI is a bigger story productivity wise than the computer. And so that it's a time when the Fed has a chance to do what Greenspan did in the nineties.

Okay, how much lower?

You have to watch and see.

Okay. I'm gonna keep pressing on this a little bit because there is a big question about what this does to inflation, which is not lower than when the President took office. It's about at the same place. You're still above the target rate. Where do you see interest rates going over the next year? If this scenario that you're pointing to.

Kevin: Right.

Plays out. Where do you wanna get it?

Well, we have, like, we're running a rate of PCE that we just got on Friday around two-and-a-half. It was like about a percent more than that in January. But the thing that jumps out at me in the latest numbers that we just saw on Friday, that really jumps out is the same thing that we saw during the computer times, is that the real wage growth was really impressive. So we're running right now over the last quarter with real wage increases about 2.5%. And to do that, you basically need lots of productivity gains. And the productivity gains I think are coming from AI.