Name: Mohamed El-Erian: AI Could Have Huge Payoff, But Many Are Overspending
Uploaded: 2025-11-20T18:50:00Z
Duration: 2 min 8 s
Description: “AI has pulled everybody up with them, and some names don’t deserve the valuations they have right now,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor of Allianz, told Barron’s Andy Serwer.

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“AI has pulled everybody up with them, and some names don’t deserve the valuations they have right now,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor of Allianz, told Barron’s Andy Serwer.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251120/5e368a28-568d-4e77-b2a5-6b14b81a0b5a/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Mohamed El-Erian: AI Could Have Huge Payoff, But Many Are Overspending

And then there's the stock market. What about that? Is the stock market in a bubble? I've heard you talking about a rational bubble, which is something that's real, but the prices are too high. Is that right?

So yeah. So AI is in a rational bubble. And what do I mean by a rational bubble? That if you analyze it in terms of incentives, whether you are working on AI or whether you're investing in AI, it makes sense to overinvest in it, to overspend in it, because the payoff is enormous. So you've got many people overspending in AI because of the payoff. Now, there will be a small number of winners. There will not be as many winners as are people now seeking the big prize. And the big prize is AGI, artificial general intelligence. So there will be tears. Then you've got a second, but it's rational. If you're an investor in AI or if you're an AI company, you should aim for the big prize. There's a second group that's irrational, and I've seen it all around. These are companies that simply put an AI label on what they do and suddenly attract investments. That's gonna end up in tears. What that has done is it has pulled up other elements of the stock market, and there's two dynamics here. One is index buying. The bigger that the technology names get in indices, the more the indices react, the more they attract money into it. And the second one has to do with the typical risk compression. When things start going up, you look for those that haven't gone up yet. Foreign stocks, the Russell Index. In credit, you go all the way out the high yield curve.

Yeah.

And you try to seek risk compression. So yes, AI has pulled everybody up with them and some names don't deserve the valuations they have right now. Others do.