Name: Mortgage Rates Hit 7 Percent: What’s Next for the Housing Market?
Uploaded: 2026-09-24T16:00:00Z
Duration: 2 min 6 s
Description: WSJ’s Nicholas Miller explains in three charts whether 7% mortgage rates will become the new normal in the housing market.

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WSJ’s Nicholas Miller explains in three charts whether 7% mortgage rates will become the new normal in the housing market. Photo: Laura Fong

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260924/010efc60-a275-46db-a978-8fcd65882a5a/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

WSJ’s Nicholas Miller explains in three charts whether 7% mortgage rates will become the new normal in the housing market.

Mortgage Rates Hit 7 Percent: What’s Next for the Housing Market?

This is a chart of the average 30-year mortgage rate, which hit 7% this week. The last time it was this high was over a year and a half ago. Home buyers and sellers have been frustrated for years with high mortgage rates, which together with record home prices have stunted the housing market and trapped many Americans out of home ownership. Now, many are asking, "Is this 7% rate the new normal?" The first thing to know, the 30-year mortgage closely tracks the 10-year treasury yield. That's because the average mortgage lasts 10 years before being refinanced or exited through a sale. And recently, the 10-year treasury yield hit 5%. The bond sell-off was driven by fears of persistent inflation and soaring government deficits. 2026 was supposed to mark the beginning of the housing market's recovery. In February, mortgage rates fell below 6%, sparking a flurry of buyer interest and optimism that the housing market was on its way back to pre-pandemic levels. You can see in this chart that mortgage applications at the beginning of the year were on the rise and reached their highest point since 2022. But then the war in Iran halted that progress. Expectations for higher inflation drove mortgage rates up. Meanwhile, economic uncertainty made Americans hesitant to make the largest purchase of their lives. In August, home sales fell to their lowest level since the beginning of last year. But there are some positives for buyers in the market. Many sellers who have been holding onto their low mortgage rates from years ago are finally starting to sell. You can see in this chart, the housing inventory is much higher than it was in 2023 and is actually approaching pre-pandemic levels. The total existing homes available for sale in 2023 was 1.1 million. This year, it's up to 1.6 million, the highest level since before the pandemic. That's good news for buyers who have more options in the market than they've had for years. It also shows that people, as they get new jobs and have children, realize they have to move no matter what the mortgage rate says. Many are realizing that after years of waiting for rates to fall, this may just be the housing market's new normal.

Mortgage Rates Hit 7%: What’s Next for the Housing Market?

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