Name: Portfolio Diversification Can Be a Win-Win
Uploaded: 2026-04-07T18:34:00Z
Duration: 3 min 50 s
Description: Given “relatively high” equity valuations, diversifying your portfolio with gold, commodities, TIPS, and alternatives could reduce risk and enhance returns, says Alex Shahidi, co-chief investment officer of Evoke Advisors.

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Given “relatively high” equity valuations, diversifying your portfolio with gold, commodities, TIPS, and alternatives could reduce risk and enhance returns, says Alex Shahidi, co-chief investment officer of Evoke Advisors.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260407/4be2a5b0-2a59-4c25-907f-6f0300ea42bb/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Portfolio Diversification Can Be a Win-Win

To think about diversification, you have to think about where do returns come from, okay? It's not just correlation. Correlation is not a stable measure, it's just the byproduct of the environment and how two assets went up and down together, or the opposite. So for example, very simply, the bond market and the stock market on average are zero correlated. But in the 1970s when inflation was a big problem, they have the same bias to inflation. They do better when inflation surprises in a downside, those two assets were highly correlated. In the 2000s, inflation didn't move, but growth was all over the place. We had booms and busts. They have the opposite bias to growth, so they were negatively correlated. So I think it's a mistake to have some assumption of what correlation is. You have to understand what drives the returns. So if you just follow that methodology and that framework, you essentially should end up with a portfolio that has assets to do well when growth is strong, assets to do well when growth is weak, because it's versus what is discounted. It's the surprises that really matter. When everybody thinks growth's gonna be strong and it's weak, that's when you get the big move. But people think the world is gonna end, and it doesn't. Even if it's not good, that's an upside.

Right. So it baking in all the conventional wisdom at the time, yeah.

Yeah, because if you think about the market is, in some ways it's like the original AI. It's the input of all the players, and their specific perception of what reality is. And that all finds its way into the price. So it's the surprises that move things. And by definition they're surprises. It's not something that people talk about in advance. And our hindsight, when we look back, we forget that they were actually surprises.

Yeah.

Right? So you have to have things that do well when growth surprises, when inflation surprises, which it hasn't for a long time. And then other things that are less correlated. And you put all that together.

And I think that's particularly important when you consider, let's say the timing of when someone wants to retire. I mean, we've had a long running bull market in equities, but the market has had long stretches of dead decades, if you will. And you know, heaven to forbid someone retirees into one of those periods where it could be that or worse. I mean, it could happen, right? So yes, to your point, you wanna have that seesaws as some things are always going up when others are down. So you're never gonna, let's say, land in a particularly disadvantage of time, bad time, yeah.

Yes. Yeah, and that's particularly important today when equity valuations are relatively high, and valuations are very, you know, mediocre if maybe not even good predictors of short-term returns, but they're excellent predictors of long-term returns.

Yeah.

And we're investing for the long-term. And you don't know what the future returns are gonna be, but there's a probabilistic assessment based on valuation. Valuations are relatively high today. So if you're putting all your eggs in the stock market basket, like a 60/40 is, it's a really risky basket to put all your eggs in. And you can be more diversified. And I think one of the hurdles that people have to overcome, and part of it is, is mindset, is there's a general sense that you get returns from equities, particularly US equities. That's the mindset today. And everything else is diversifying, but lowers returns. So there's a trade off. If I want high returns, I just invest in US stocks. If I want to reduce risk, I have the diversifiers. This could be an environment where the diversifiers actually add returns because of where valuations are with stocks. So you could effectively diversify own inflation hedge assets, things like gold or commodities or tips, inflation like bonds, other non-correlated assets like alternatives, and so on. Diversify the equity portfolio, and that may actually enhance returns and reduce your risk. So I think it's an opportune time to think about diversification in that way.