Name: Marsh CEO John Doyle Lays Out the Biggest Risks of 2026
Uploaded: 2026-01-19T21:22:00Z
Duration: 6 min 24 s
Description: WSJ Leadership Institute President Alan Murray speaks with Marsh CEO John Doyle on how geopolitics, climate-related insurance losses, and AI disruption are reshaping the risk landscape in 2026.

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WSJ Leadership Institute President Alan Murray speaks with Marsh CEO John Doyle on how geopolitics, climate-related insurance losses, and AI disruption are reshaping the risk landscape in 2026. Photo: Michael Claudio/WSJ

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260120/f5719c34-ad75-45ec-969c-f5f723894c99/3/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

WSJ Leadership Institute President Alan Murray speaks with Marsh CEO John Doyle on how geopolitics, climate-related insurance losses, and AI disruption are reshaping the risk landscape in 2026.

Marsh CEO John Doyle Lays Out the Biggest Risks of 2026

I am Alan Murray. I'm here with John Doyle, the CEO of Marsh. We're standing on the balcony of Journal House in Davos. John, thanks for taking some time.

It's great to be with you, Alan. What a beautiful shot.

It's nice. It was a beautiful day here in Davos. So look, your business is all about risk. As we sit here at the beginning of the year, what do you see as the big risks of 2026?

Well, as you know, Alan, we've been a longtime partner of the World Economic Forum, risk partner of the World Economic Forum, and they've just come out with their report for this year. Geo-economic confrontation, unsurprisingly, is at the top of the list. And so, you know, I would imagine that's gonna dominate many of the discussions over the course of the next few days. But concerns about AI-related risk, misinformation, disinformation, climate continues to be on the minds of leaders all over the world.

I thought we weren't talking about climate at Davos this year. There's one guest who prefers to downplay that.

Well, more and more of the world's economy and society is exposed to extreme weather. And you know, whether you're a proponent of the science buying climate change or not, there's no question the economic impact around the consequences of severe weather. And you think back a year ago, you know, in the United States, the impacts of the Southern California wildfires on that economy, for example. Society, of course, but the economy-

How much have the costs of weather-related risks in the world gone up over the last five years?

Well, the insured losses have been in excess of a hundred billion dollars for every year of each of the last five or six years maybe now. When that first happened a few years ago, us in the insurance industry, you know, we're quite startled by that number, thinking that that was a big number. That's now the new normal.

Wow.

And so again, the economic consequences are quite-

So business can't ignore what's happening with climate and weather.

Absolutely not, absolutely not. And not just property damage, but the impact of these events on supply chains and business interruption. So there's a lot for businesses to come from-

I wanna go back to where you started, which was with geopolitics. Borge Brende, who's the president of the World Economic Forum, said that we haven't had as complex a geopolitical environment in the world in 50 years or more. How is that affecting business?

It feels that way to me. It is incredibly complex. That's the word I use to describe it. And it's not just geo-economic confrontation. We talked about extreme weather. We've got a technology revolution that we're in the early days of big social issues confronting some of the world's largest economies. And so it is a very, very complicated world. And so, you know, we have a business that is positioned to help clients navigate uncertainty, unpredictability, and think through these scenarios and invest with confidence. And so that's a big part of how we'll be spending our time over the course of the next few days.

Yeah, so when you walk down the promenade here, you see where all those cars are lined up on both sides of the street, there are these corporate pavilions, one after the other, all the big technology companies, service companies, consulting firms. They're all talking about AI. That is topic number one. You mentioned risks associated with AI. What are you focused on these days?

Well, we're actually hosting a breakfast for clients tomorrow morning, and a big part of that session is about workforce transformation and the impact of AI on workforces. And so while we're not a technology company, we are a professional services company that helps businesses think about how to deploy these new technologies in their workplaces. And so clearly, there's risk. I mentioned misinformation, disinformation earlier. That's certainly an outcome of these new technologies. I also, I'm quite worried about cyber risk. AI-driven cyber risk wasn't at the top of the WEF's report.

Yeah.

But AI-driven cyber risk, I think is a real concern as well.

So I was a little earlier today with Cristiano Amon at Qualcomm Haus, which is just right down the road here. I asked him the question of what he sees as the biggest risk. He says the biggest risk is the companies don't recognize how transformative AI is gonna be. Do you buy that or is he just selling product?

There's gonna be a lot of change. You know, I don't think I've heard some say that, you know, it's all about 2026. I think the transformation's gonna be longer than, you know, than 2026. But thinking through how to deploy these technologies is critical, and I think businesses can be left behind for sure if they're not thinking that part through.

How about the economy? What do you see for 2026 standing near in January?

Yeah, the economy has been remarkably resilient, given all the complexity and the geo-economic confrontation that, you know, that we've talked through. So as obviously been a bit of a reordering of the world's economy, but you know, I'm relatively optimistic, you know, for a good year ahead. AI has obviously driving a lot of investment, and you know, there'll be winners and losers, of course, with that investment. But I think it should be a decent year ahead.

So we've been talking a lot about risk for the last few minutes. What do you see as the big opportunity of 2026? Give us the upside.

Well, I'm quite excited for our own business about AI. You know, as I said, it'll be a multi-year journey, but for us, we are an early mover in our industry. We've deployed many productivity tools, so getting more of our colleagues to adopt those tools and drive some productivity. But more and more of late, we've been introducing revenue growth opportunities. So we talked about supply chain risk as it relates to extreme weather earlier.

Right.

We have an AI-powered tool that's in the market and, you know, gaining traction called Sentrisk that helps clients think through how to navigate those kinds of risks and also even trade conflicts as well. So there's a lot of opportunity.

Good year for your business?

It should be a good year for us. Yeah. I'm optimistic about 2026. We're a resilient business, and I'm excited about what's ahead of us as a company.

You've had a few good years here.

We've had a terrific run. We're 155-year-old business, and we're very, very fortunate. I think we're more relevant than ever.

Yeah. John, thanks so much for taking the time. I hope you have a great week in Davos.

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