Name: U.S. Businesses Feel the Pain This Earnings Season as China’s Economy Weakens
Uploaded: 2023-10-19T15:59:00Z
Duration: 3 min 9 s
Description: China's slowing economy could soon become a major talking point for U.S. companies as they begin to report third-quarter earnings. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains. Illustration: Elizabeth Smelov

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China's slowing economy could soon become a major talking point for U.S. companies as they begin to report third-quarter earnings. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains. Illustration: Elizabeth Smelov

https://m.wsj.net/video/20231019/a2cec56d-3d20-4d2f-8167-26071a7770f4/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

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The slowdown in the Chinese economy doesn't just hurt China. Some US companies do a lot of business there and have counted on the emerging economy to help drive their profits. During the second quarter, S&P 500 companies mentioned China 182 times. That was the fewest number of times since the fourth quarter of 2021. But as the third quarter earning season starts to heat up in the US, there are three big reasons you're likely to hear a lot more about China from American companies. First, companies that generate big chunks of their revenue from China are driving much of the stock market's gains this year. The S&P 500 index is weighted based on how large each company in the index is. And in recent years, tech companies have come to dominate. Companies like Tesla, Apple and NVIDIA have been responsible for much of the rise in the S&P this year and they all do a lot of business in China. While only 7.5% of revenue for companies in the SS&P 500 comes from China, about 16% of revenue for companies in the information technology sector is China-based. For semiconductor companies like NVIDIA, 27% of revenue originates there. And when the Chinese economy slows down, like it has this year, that usually means Chinese businesses and consumers buy less. That includes US products. Second, we've seen rising tensions between the US and China with both countries recently unveiling new restrictions on trade. Sources told my colleague Yoko Kubota in September that officials at central government agencies in China have been told not to bring Apple's iPhone to the office. And Beijing recently instituted a ban on Chinese firms buying products from Idaho-based chip maker Micron. The company said earlier this year that the ban could have a quote, "Double digit percentage impact on its total sales." China has also ramped up bans on foreigners leaving the country, targeting bankers and executives. The US has also made things more difficult for American companies doing business in China, banning the sale of chips and other tech equipment to Chinese companies. NVIDIA's chief financial officer recently said that further restrictions on sales to China would result in a quote, "Permanent loss for the US industry to compete and lead in one of the world's largest markets." Third, the Chinese economy slowdown is having a wide range of negative effects. China's unemployment rate is picking up, especially for young people who are some of the biggest consumers of American-made products. The unemployment rate for people aged 16 to 24 has doubled over the past four years and rose to 21% in June, the highest level ever. China's government suspended the survey after June's record reading and has cut off data releases for corporate registration information, patents, and more. The countries yuan currency also fell to its lowest level in 16 years against the dollar last month. That means products sold in China will be more expensive for local consumers or they'll have to be marked down in dollar terms, which means less money comes back to US companies. Companies may still be able to hit their targets despite these headwinds from China but get ready to hear a lot more about them in the coming weeks.