Name: Real Estate, Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators: 3 Things to Watch
Uploaded: 2023-09-25T14:31:00Z
Duration: 9 min 54 s
Description: Inflation is rising and investors are betting that interest rates will go higher. This week's readings on the housing market, consumer confidence and leading economic indicators offer clarity on how the market is holding up. Photo: Mike Blake/Reuters

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Inflation is rising and investors are betting that interest rates will go higher. This week's readings on the housing market, consumer confidence and leading economic indicators offer clarity on how the market is holding up. Photo: Mike Blake/Reuters

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Real Estate, Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators: 3 Things to Watch

Welcome, welcome, welcome in to another exciting edition of "Market Takes". We are looking ahead to all the big data releases coming out this week, and we have a lot. I'm Dion Rabouin reporter at the Wall Street Journal. Thank you so much for joining us here on "Market Takes". Listen, a lot of stuff going on this week. We've got a number of housing reports. We got the August New Home Sales Report. We have the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the pending home sales report. I'm gonna tell you what all those are, why they matter, what you need to look for in each of those. We have two big consumer confidence indexes coming in this week. One from the conference board, one from the University of Michigan. That's the Consumer Sentiment Report. We get both this week. I'll tell you what those are all about, why they'll matter this week. Those are gonna be big, I think. And we also get some big economic indicators. We get a revision for the GDP report. That one I think is undercover, low key gonna be a big one. Also get the PCE report and the Advanced Economic Indicators report from the Census Bureau, so you're gonna wanna watch out for all three of those. We will talk through why each of those is important, why they matter, what to look for. Let's start it out with the real estate market and what we're looking for in terms of housing. So first report that we've got coming up is the New Home Sales Report for August. That's out on Tuesday. Let's throw up here on your screen just a chart going back of what we're looking at in terms of new home sales. Now, I wanted to go back 10 years to give people a better idea of the environment that we're in right now. We've seen new home sales picking up pretty consistently since the start of the year, since late last year, and then rising up, getting that big peak you saw there a couple months ago, then moving down, but moving back up. We have consistently been moving higher in terms of the number of new homes sold. Historically, we are at a very high level of new home sales. We are down from those 2021, 2022 levels which were very high historic levels. Over a million new homes sold in a month but we are still very high, approaching 800,000 homes. We're expected to get down a little bit from that this upcoming reading. For the next reading that we have we're expecting sales to decline by 2.2%, see about 698,000 new homes sold. Listen, the big picture here of what we're looking at, as you see, we are historically high and this chart just really illustrating the way that new home sales have picked up over the long term, over the long term, over the past 10 years. Cooled down a little bit since those big peaks after 2020 when the pandemic hit and everybody wanted to go out and get a new house. But we are still going high, we are at high level. Well, that's important because we have seen home builder sentiment decline recently for the first time in several months and we saw construction levels dip to a three year low. So this is the first time we've really seen that dip in home builder sentiment. Means home builders aren't good. We've seen a big pullback in terms of home builder stocks and we have seen a decline in terms of that real bullishness that we saw in the home building economy. Why does that matter? Big picture matters for inflation, also matters for the price of housing, which of course pushes up the highest of inflation. When we've seen a big glut of supply, right? No one with an existing home really is selling right now. We're seeing very few existing home sales and those houses that were already built being on the market. People who have low interest rates they locked in at 2 or 3%, they don't want to come out here and sell their house and then have to buy a new one at 7, 7.5% mortgage rates. So we've seen that supply decrease but we've seen new home sales in terms of new homes being built, pushing up and that's pushed those home builder stocks up. We've seen that really rise in a big way and that's kind of kept a lid on home prices. Well, if those new homes aren't being built, you could see that demand has been consistent. If the supply declines, prices could pick back up. You're gonna want to keep an eye on that. We've seen home builder stocks which had been booming all year, really pull back and an index, an ETF of home builder stocks put together by BlackRock saw its biggest outflows since April of 2022 last month. Housing starts also down 11.3% last month. We have just seen a real big move in terms of toward the negative side on the home building front which had been a a big bullish tailwind for the economy. One thing, let's throw up another chart right here. Let's talk about the markets. I wanna put up here on your screen what we are seeing in markets. The big piece there is it's all about bonds. You see the 30 year bond, that's that 30 year keynote rising, that's up by with prices down by almost two full percentage points or two full points. That is a huge increase in yields. We're seeing the 30 year rise well above the seven year, the five year. It had been below those for a long time. So we are seeing big moves in the bond market and the 10 year note, which is the most traded which has some direct correlation with those mortgage rates. We are seeing that rise in a big way, well over 4.5%. And just to give you an idea of where we are, let's take a look at the one year chart you see there, rising up in a big way, even when we go out three years you are just seeing us up here near the peak, same thing. Long dated bonds are rising in a major way. The yields are rising in a major way that makes everything more expensive. Those mortgage rates probably not coming down anytime soon and in fact, probably getting much higher. And again, what we're seeing here just illustrating the overall themes in the market in terms of what we're seeing from the bonds. Case-Shiller Home Price Index is also coming out for July. It's gonna give us some in-depth pricing numbers likely higher, likely moved up. Prices rose in June, but that's continuing a theme. We will see also the pending home sales index. That's gonna give us some important clues on whether home buying is starting to heat up again which would be unusual given that we are moving into the fall and away from the summer. Usually that's when home prices slow down. That's when buying slows down. If we do see a continued pickup that's definitely something to keep your eye on. Again, those home prices have been a cooling effect on inflation over the past couple months. That was expected to continue through year end. If home prices start to rise back up because we're seeing sustained demand, decreasing supply, well, you could see home prices start to push up inflation again, keep your eye on that. Let's talk real quickly about consumer confidence. I wanna put a chart up here on your screen of the conference boards US Consumer Confidence index. Again, going back 10 years you see we are higher than we have been historically. Getting down from some of those levels we saw in 2019 and in 2021, but still very high. But we are seeing those numbers start to decline. We saw last month, home builder, or sorry, consumer confidence decreased to 106. It's expected to decline again this month. Last month confidence fell and the previous month was revised lower. So what you're seeing there is just that starting to move lower in terms of consumer confidence. Dana Peterson, chief economists at the conference board said quote, "August's disappointing headline number reflected dips" "in both the current condition and expectations index." As in people saying right now I don't feel good and I don't feel good about the future. Dana says, write-in responses showed that consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general and for groceries and gasoline in particular. And listen, when you're looking up there on your screen this chart just illustrating the way that consumer confidence has risen recently. It's been strong, but it could be moving back down lower. As we know, those gas prices are rising. We know those food prices are rising, we've seen that. We also get the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index. That's out on Friday. That also declined last month but it is about 15.5% higher than a year ago. University of Michigan's saying it's about 35% above the all time low. 'Cause remember in 2022, we got to those all time lows on the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index. We're well above that, but we are well below the historical average reading of 86. So last month it was 67.7, way below the average reading of 86. We'll see if that holds up and we'll see how consumers feel about their lives. The conference board's index more about how consumers feel about business, the business environment. University of Michigan's, more about how do you feel about your own life and what's going on. Last but not least, let's talk about economic indicators. We are going to get the Advanced Economic Indicators report from the Census Bureau, that is out on Friday. It is a monthly survey that gives us advanced statistics on US international trading goods, domestic retail inventories, and domestic wholesale inventories. Basically, how much are people buying and are they being able to sell it? We know inventories were a big part of the GDP picture in 2022. That's come off and GDP is still expected to rise. So keep your eye on that. Bets on GDP growth are really a big part of that bond story. When I showed you those yields just shooting up that's really about expectations for the US economy continue growing for inflation to potentially pick back up and for the long term, right? You see the 10 and 30 year, those 10 and 30 year bonds, those yields are really rising, taking off. That's all about this GDP growth story. The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now poll still shows U.S. GDP expected to grow 5% in the third quarter. That is huge. So this advanced Economic Indicators Report on Friday is gonna give us a big look at that. We will also get another revision the third revision for U.S., second quarter GDP. That's out later this week on Thursday. It's the last one that we'll get. So that's expected to show US GDP rose 2.3% in the second quarter higher than 2.1%. So basically we're seeing GDP rise in expectations for it to continue rising through the end of the year. This will be a big week for the bond market, and as we have seen that's been influencing the stock market in a big way. We also get PCE, the PCE Inflation Report, Personal Consumption Expenditures. That is released in the personal income and outlays report. That's out on Friday. Watch out for that. That's the big inflation report that the Fed wants. That's their favorite gauge. It's expected to rise in terms of the overall headline number, but decline in terms of the core stripping out food and energy. I know a lot of you are saying what does it matter what inflation's doing if you don't count food and energy? Those are my biggest costs. Talk to the Fed about that. They're talking about core and core is expected to decline. Listen, that's gonna wrap it up for us here on "Market Takes". I'm Dion Rabouin, reporter at the Wall Street Journal. Thanks so much for being with us. 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