Name: Retail Sales and Major Companies Earnings Reports Will Come Out This Week
Uploaded: 2023-07-17T14:42:00Z
Duration: 7 min 10 s
Description: Major companies like Tesla, Netflix, Goldman Sachs and United Airlines will release earnings reports this week. We'll also see the U.S. retail sales report and leading economic indicators to give us a fresh check on the economy. Photo: Mike Blake

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Major companies like Tesla, Netflix, Goldman Sachs and United Airlines will release earnings reports this week. We'll also see the U.S. retail sales report and leading economic indicators to give us a fresh check on the economy. Photo: Mike Blake

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Retail Sales and Major Companies Earnings Reports Will Come Out This Week

Hey everyone. Welcome, welcome, welcome into Market Takes. We are starting a little bit late today. Had to get over some technical difficulties. I appreciate y'all being patient with me. I know you could have been anywhere in the world but you're here with me. I appreciate that, I never forget about it. So, apologies for our late start, but let's jump into it. This week we have a big week. Earning season has already kicked into full swing so I'm gonna be telling you about that. But also the three most important things that you need to be watching out for this week. Not all of 'em are Earnings reports, but some of them are. Listen, we've got the retail sales report that's coming out tomorrow. Hope you'll be with us right here at 10:00am on Market Takes. We'll be breaking that down. That comes out tomorrow morning. We also have the leading economic indicators report that's coming out on Thursday. And earning season, we got kicked off with the banks last week. This week we've got Tesla, United, Netflix, Johnson and Johnson, Capital One, Goldman, Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and much, much more. We'll tell you what you need to watch and what to watch out for in those Earnings reports. So, let's start it off talking to you about retail sales and what we can expect from the retail sales report for June that's coming out a little later this month. First things first, wanna throw up here on your screen the latest numbers that we've seen from the retail sales report. And as you see there, some of those numbers are going negative. You see really four the past seven months we've seen negative reports on that retail sales number. So, we have seen over the past couple months a pick backup like we saw in January and a reversal of that early trend. It seemed like okay, the trend was just gonna be negative going forward but the last couple months we have seen positive numbers and economists are predicting that we will see an increase of 0.5% month over month. That would be the biggest increase we'd seen since that January number that we got in February that you see there, that big pickup. So, economists are expecting retail sales to start rising again. And this chart is illustrating that we really did break away from that trend that we had seen of retail sales being negative, folks not buying, staying home, they're clearly coming out and going shopping again. As we look inside the report, it's gonna be interesting though as retail sales pick back up. We're gonna have to dig into the details. So, how hot are the services components, bars, restaurants, attorneys, all those things, barbers, things like that where you're getting a service performed. Is that hot? Because that's what's really picking up and pushing inflation higher and that's the fed's gonna be watching out for. So, you are wanna watch out for that as well. And are they slowing? Goods prices have been slowing. We've seen energy, gasoline prices or as prices at gas stations going down. So, does that continue? And what is really gonna be the key? Is that services component? June will be the last month of the second quarter. So, could have a big impact on earnings expectations as well. Next thing I wanna talk about is the leading economic indicators or the index of leading economic indicators. Let's put a chart right up here on your screen. What we've seen from that. Here's why this is a big deal. As you see on the right of your screen, we have been substantially and significantly negative and every time that the leading economic index has been this low, we've had a recession. So, you see those light gray bars there on your chart, those are recessions and every time that we get to this level, we are right now, when you see the decline, we have a recession. And this chart really just again, illustrates that historical theme that we have seen over time. Leading economic indicators are things like the S&P 500 but also the interest rate, the tenured treasury minus the fed funds rate, credit indexes. They also look at things like business surveys, ISM and S&P 500 or the S&P, excuse me, global index of service or purchasing managers, manufacturers, new orders, how are the manufacturing industry doing, things like that. And those tell us about the economic indicators. Those are indicators of what's going on in the economy. It's been a long-term accurate recession indicator for a long time and it is strongly pointing towards recession right now. Other thing, listen, it's earning season and what I wanna throw up here on your screen right now is what we've seen from the S&P 500 stock index and clearly one part of the LEI that has been moving higher, especially in recent months. You see they're really just the stock market taking off over the last couple months. That's a six month chart going back to March, I'm sorry, this is a three month chart just going back there towards March and you've seen really a big pickup going on in the stock market and especially over the last couple months. That just illustrating again the bullish sentiment that we are seeing from Wall Street on those investor sides. But businesses really have not continued to do that. So, we need to hear from them this week in terms of that bullish sentiment. So, analysts are predicting that we will have the biggest Earnings decline in three years, but they also predict the S&P 500 will go up another 9% over the next year. Those two things really don't go together, especially when the Fed has interest rates high like they do right now. So, what do we got this week? We've got Tesla. Listen, Tesla's up 160% so far this year, year to date. Is that gonna continue? Last earnings or last quarter, the earnings were not so great. We saw net income down 24%. And also, Tesla launched a bit of a price war in the electric vehicle space. So, we are going to see just how that's going for Tesla. We've also got Netflix coming out this week. How did that crackdown on password sharing go? You guys have probably heard about that if you haven't experienced it yourself. That was supposed to deliver a lot of new signups and it's first, you know, when they first announced this back at the end of May, we saw a blog post from Antenna. It's the service provider and they chart things like online signups. They said Netflix got a hundred thousand daily new signups on May 26th and 27th. So, we'll see. We'll find out in the Earnings report if that delivered. You know, there were a lot of big promises made for of 1.3 billion in profit, 3.4% growth. We'll see if they actually delivered on those. United Airlines, another one we will get this week. The stock really has not ever recovered from those COVID or from that big COVID downturn. Stock has picked back up a little bit but we're still hovering in there. How does this season right now, the summer travel season is that gonna get united back on track and are we gonna see data that they really have gotten back on track and are able to make money off of the summer travel season? How much of those canceled flights hurt the airline and are they able to keep charging these high airfares? We have seen in the CPI inflation data that airfare prices have been down across the board. So, how does United deal with that? We heard from Delta last week. Capital One, Bank of America, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley are all out this week. They're gonna tell us a lot about the health of the consumer, but a lot more about businesses or businesses bullish as sentiment picking up, are they making those deals, mergers and acquisitions, are they investing, things like that. We don't know and we're gonna find out, you know, this week when we hear from those companies. Goldman is gonna be big. Morgan Stanley's also gonna tell us about those wealthy high net worth individuals all that. Capital one and B of A are gonna tell us a lot about the consumer. How much are they putting aside for loan loss provisions and things like that. Debit card versus credit card spending. We know credit card spending picked up huge for JP Morgan Chase, as well as Wells Fargo. That's what we found out last week. So, what's going on with Capital One and Bank of America? So, we'll find out this week. So listen, that's gonna do it for us here on Market Takes. I appreciate you tuning in. Be sure and check back with us tomorrow morning 10:00am. We will be here unpacking the retail sales report tomorrow morning. So, if you'll stick with us. And we'll do it again tomorrow morning. I hope to see you there on Market Takes.