Name: Investors Will Hear From the Fed and Get Earnings From Meta, Microsoft and Google
Uploaded: 2023-07-24T14:30:00Z
Duration: 8 min 39 s
Description: Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and other big names in tech will report their earnings this week. We’ll also get the latest report on U.S. economic growth and hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Photo: Justin Sullivan

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Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and other big names in tech will report their earnings this week. We’ll also get the latest report on U.S. economic growth and hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Photo: Justin Sullivan

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Investors Will Hear From the Fed and Get Earnings From Meta, Microsoft and Google

What's going on, what's going on? Welcome in. Welcome everybody to another edition of "Market Takes." I know you could have been anywhere in the world, but you're here with me and I appreciate that. I'm your host, Dion Rabouin. Thanks for tuning in to "Market Takes." We are talking about the three most important things you need to be watching out for this week. And it is a big, big week of earnings, Big Tech, lots of the market leaders reporting. But of course, we're gonna talk you through what's going on. We've got earnings reports from Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Snap, I'm talking 3M, Verizon, eBay, Chipotle, Intel, Ford. We're not gonna talk about all those. We're gonna tell you which ones are really going to be the most impactful or have the biggest impact on what's going on with the market this week. We're also gonna talk through the Fed meeting. The FOMC meets this week and they'll give us their decision on Wednesday. And we're gonna talk about the second quarter US GDP report. That could really move markets in a big way. That's out on Thursday. So first things first, we're talking through Big Tech and the earnings that we are expecting to see this week. Wanna put a chart up here on your screen to just show you what we're looking at in terms of the market performance. Now, that green line you see up there on your screen, that's Meta, formerly Facebook, really leading things up, over 136% so far year-to-date. Microsoft also up about 44% year-to-date. Alphabet up more than 35%. So all really leading and doing a lot more in terms of returns than the overall S&P. The S&P up about 20%, a little less than that, about 19.6% so far this year. But you see the leadership has all come from Big Tech. Everything else is kind of holding the S&P 500 down. And the overall returns have been pretty indicative of what we have seen from Big Tech. So as those companies come out and report earnings this week, they're gonna be really very highly watched because of just how much they have outperformed and led the market, and that has really happened all year. We have seen the NASDAQ up big, it's up 35%, while the Dow only up about 6%. S&P 500 right in between them, about 19%. So that number you're seeing right there, that red line, the S&P, doesn't look like much when you're comparing to those other Big Tech names that are reported. But we will hear from them this week, and if their earnings disappoint, well, this big rally that we've seen that's got the S&P 500 up 20% year-to-date could be in danger. And this chart really just illustrating the importance of Big Tech in that rally, and we're gonna get those readings this week. Tesla and Netflix, last week, they really disappointed in terms of guidance going forward and we saw the reaction. The NASDAQ was down 2 1/2% on Thursday, and then Friday we saw more losses on the NASDAQ on the tech side. The NASDAQ, we know, is the tech-heavy index. Really, we've seen struggles. The Dow has continued to do well, up 10 straight days on Friday, up right now for the 11th straight day. This would be the longest streak since February of 2017 if the Dow ends higher today, but like I just showed you, the Dow is only up 6% year-to-date. It really is all about those tech names. The earnings that we see this week could stop the rally in its tracks because we are expecting, or analysts are expecting a 9% decline in earning based on what we've seen in earnings so far. That would be the third straight negative quarter for earnings and it would be the most negative quarter for earnings since Q2 of 2020, so going back three years since we've had earnings this negative. And it's really hard for a rally of 20% to continue where you've already got priced earnings ratios, stretch, which is the historical measure of how much company stock price is versus what they're actually selling, versus what they're actually earning, right. So the stock price compared to the earnings that a company is getting, that's that PE ratio and it's pretty high right now, above both the five and 10-year trends on the S&P 500, the Dow, and the NASDAQ. So this really could be a big week in terms of those earnings that we get, particularly from those big companies, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet. Those are the Big Tech names, the Big Tech leaders, and you're gonna wanna watch for those. All three of those are out this week. Also Snap, also Intel have outperformed, but those are the three big ones you wanna watch. Next up, we're gonna talk about the Fed decision that's almost been lost in all this earnings talk. But the Fed is coming out, J Powell, aka JP, aka J Powell, aka JP Money is gonna be talking to us on Wednesday afternoon. We'll be right here for "Market Takes" breaking down everything the chairman said, didn't say, all that. Let's put a chart up here on your screen really fast to just show you where we are in terms of the environment. Now, we are there on the right. You see earnings up, right around 5%, between 5 and 5.25%. That is about as high as we've been in the last 20 years. You see, the last time rates were this high was back in 2008 and we all know what happened in 2008. So when rates get this high, usually, the economy starts to get a little shaky. The Fed is hoping to slow things down, kind of cool things off, and not have sort of those similar recession results that we had seen there. But again, this chart's just illustrating where we are right now in terms of the rates environment, and we are at a very high level. The Fed is at restrictive territory, it seems. But the big question is is what is J Powell gonna say about that? And that's gonna determine whether we get a hawkish hike or a dovish hike. Listen, the market is already pricing in a rate hike of 25 basis points at this Fed meeting. In fact, when you look out at the Fed funds futures market it's showing a 99.8% likelihood as of this morning, as of right now when we're talking here, that the Fed is gonna hike. So the market is saying that's a foregone conclusion. What matters is what J Powell says at that meeting, whether he says, "You know what, there's more to do. We think there'll be more rate hikes." The Fed, at its last meeting, projected two more rate hikes this year. If they do this one, now the big question is, are they gonna do another one? Are they gonna hike in September, maybe November? And what are they gonna say to get the market ready for that? Or are they going to say, "Hey, you know what? We think we've done enough. We think we need to pump the brakes on pumping the brakes and no more rate hikes anymore." And so watch out for words like hold or we've done enough or policy is restrictive enough. That's gonna determine whether it's a dovish or hawkish rate hike and the market is gonna have a strong reaction to that one way or another. So you're gonna wanna watch that Fed meeting. You're gonna want to be with us here on "Market Takes" as we break that down at 4:00 PM Eastern on Wednesday. And you'll wanna be here. You won't wanna be anywhere else. Last thing we've got coming this week is second quarter GDP, and that's big because of what... This could really lock in what I've termed soft landing summer and I want to tell you why. So we're gonna put a few charts up here on your screen to just kind of show you what we're looking for in terms of what we've been looking at in terms of data. First things first, the US retail sales report. And we talked about this a couple weeks ago when this report came out. This is the year-over-year change, and you see it just coming down there to where it's still positive, it's still up higher than it was a year before. But it's much lower. It's under 2%. The last reading we got in June was 1 1/2%. And that's just illustrating, again, you saw retail sales increases were very high. People were making a lot more money. That's not taking into account inflation and it's come down a lot. Another chart I wanna put up here is the increase in jobs report, that non-farm payrolls report. This is the increase in jobs we've seen month over month. And so each month you've seen an increase in the number of jobs, but that increase is slowing down. Last couple months, what we saw in June and then what we saw in April were some of the lowest we've seen since early 2021 in terms of jobs added. So this chart, again, just illustrating that cool down, that deceleration, the slowing down. And now I wanna throw up the big one, the most important chart in terms of data, and that's that CPI inflation report. I wanna put that up there on your screen and you see just that very clear pattern of deceleration, slow down. Now, this could illustrate or this chart here illustrates what we have seen in terms of the overall data set coming down and declining and illustrating, like I said, just what I've called soft landing summer, and that's because the things are coming down but they're still staying positive, still seeing an increase. You're still seeing good, positive numbers up there on your screen, but they're slower, they're lower, closer to the Fed's 2% inflation goal. And if we see Q2 GDP come in as expected, which is 1.7%, that could really lock this in. Again, another report showing that, hey, for the second quarter, growth was positive. It was solid, but it wasn't too strong, it wasn't too hot, it wasn't inflationary. It was just showing the US is chugging along, growing as the Fed wants to see. So that's really what we're looking for in this week, and you'll wanna look out for all those things, earnings, you'll wanna watch the Fed, and you'll wanna watch that Q2 GDP number. Be right here for "Market Takes" at 4:00 PM on Wednesday. You wouldn't want to be anywhere else. And listen, that's gonna do it for us. I am Dion Rabouin, reporter at the "Wall Street Journal." Thanks so much for being with us and we hope you'll come back and do it with us next time.