Name: This Week Highlights the Jackson Hole Meeting, Real Estate and Business Surveys
Uploaded: 2023-08-21T14:18:00Z
Duration: 10 min 48 s
Description: The Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium will bring central bankers from around the world to Wyoming. They will certainly be focused on this week’s U.S. existing and new home sales reports as well as new manufacturing and services data from August. Photo: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg News

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The Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium will bring central bankers from around the world to Wyoming. They will certainly be focused on this week’s U.S. existing and new home sales reports as well as new manufacturing and services data from August. Photo: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg News

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This Week Highlights the Jackson Hole Meeting, Real Estate and Business Surveys

Welcome, welcome, welcome into Market Takes. I'm your host, Dion Rabouin, Reporter for the Wall Street Journal. Listen, I know you could have been anywhere in the world, but you're here with me and I appreciate it. There is a lot going on this week. A lot happened this week, but I'm gonna tell you the three most important things you need to be looking out for this week as we move forward through the economic calendar. Listen, if you were paying attention last week, you saw a big sell off in stocks. You saw a big sell off in bonds. This week a lot could happen and we expect a lot of market movement because of just what's going on in the economic calendar. I'm gonna tell you all about that. The biggest thing you need to watch out for, number one, that is the Central Bank, the Jackson Hole meeting of the Fed or the Fed Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. That's coming up this week. It starts on Thursday, August 24th. The Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, will be speaking on Friday and everyone, and I do mean everyone who's anyone in economics and the markets will be tuned in and listening to hear what the Chairman has to say. We also get new and existing home sales reports this week. Really, those have been a lot more highly watched because of the impact that housing and really all the things that people are paying for in terms of rent, housing prices, mortgage costs, all those things have been very watched because the impact they've had on Inflation. And finally, we get surveys on the US services and manufacturing sectors. They could tell us a lot about what's coming up next for the stock market. So, listen, let's dive into it. Let's start with talking about Jackson Hole. That starts this week on Thursday. Of course, like I said, we get the Fed speech, or the Fed Chairman speech on Friday. It's the Fed's annual gathering of central bankers from around the world and usually the Fed Chair in his speech, in his or her speech, right, in previous times, but this year in the Fed Chairman's speech, he's gonna be laying out his vision for where we've been and also where we're going. And that's gonna tell us a lot because a lot of the changes that we've seen in markets have been dictated by expectations for what the Fed's gonna do next, how high they'll raise policy, how long they'll hold policy high. And that's really what's driving a lot of really just about all of what you see in the markets, especially stock and bond markets right now. And we're gonna hear from the Fed Chairman on Thursday, or on Friday, excuse me, but we're also gonna hear from lots of other central bankers from around the globe, like I said, when they gather together at this meeting. Usually, there is a sort of central bank, you know, they all come together and they say, "Hey, here's what we think is going on." There's a lot of agreement. Right now, there's a lot of uncertainty, a lot of not being really sure of what comes next or where we are, or how we got here, especially when we look around the globe. Right now, we've got Inflation really staying high in Europe, not coming down the same way that it has in the US and Latin America, where central banks have really been able to pull that Inflation down from about eight, 9% here in the US, down to about three, three and a half percent where Inflation currently is. Over in Europe, and especially in England, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are dealing with higher rates of Inflation than really we are over here. And so, the questions are, because central banks know that Inflation isn't just a standard about, oh, what happens here, happens here. Those things travel, Inflation travels and Inflation and investors and central banks know this and they know that Inflation moves globally. So, we're gonna talk about all those things. Also, you gotta talk about Japan. The Bank of Japan has not only not raised rates the way the rest of the world has. They're still buying, they're still buying government bonds and keeping those interest rates down. So, how do all those things relate to one another? We're gonna hear about that and we're gonna hear from the Fed Chairman since there is no Fed meeting this month, not till September, 20, 21st, that's when we get the next Fed meeting, but this symposium this week will be just as highly watched, and in fact, probably more so because the Fed Chairman's gonna analyze the economy, where it's been and where it's going. Really, another thing they're gonna talk about, hopefully, is financial conditions and how those are affecting small businesses. We've seen really the stock market ratchet up higher over the past, really for most of this year. And then, this week it's really just, or last week, sorry, last week, the market just kind of tanked off, but we will see how things are going or how they think things are going. for small businesses. It's been a tough time. It's hard to get money for loans, hard to borrow, hard to sell a lot of things, hard to find employees. All those things small banks, or small businesses, excuse me, are dealing with because of a lot of what's happening in the banking sector. One thing I wanna put up here on your screen, the first chart I wanna do is I wanna throw to what's going on in the bond market. So, I wanna put a chart up here on your screen right now, just to show you what we're looking at, and what's on your screen right there is the 10 year yield. That's the most traded, the most well-known of all the treasuries. Now, you see that spike there at the edge, we are up the highest level since 2007. Now, those bond yields are over 4.25%. We've come down a little bit on the yields, but we are still well above 4.25%, over 4.3%, as you see there on your screen. That's the highest that yields have been since 2007. That is really all about Fed policy. And when you see that spike there that we saw last week, that really is just one week, you see that spike higher and that's a big deal. And that just illustrates the way that fed expectations and expectations for policy can move the market. This has really been all about that higher than expected CPI report, not higher than expected, but higher than recent CPI report and GDP, which was higher than expected. Now, the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now Tracker is predicting we'll get 5.8% GDP growth in the third quarter. That would be a huge blowout quarter. To put that in comparison, last, in the second quarter, we got 2.4% GDP growth, quarter before that 2%. So, this would be more than double what we've seen and just showing a real acceleration in US GDP growth That's something that generally is good. You want more growth, you want the economy getting bigger, but at a very rapid pace would be at the faith we're going. And that could mean Inflation starts to re-accelerate and the Fed has to do more. So, definitely gonna want to keep your eye on what the Fed has to say at Jackson Hole at its meeting this week. Next up, existing home sales and new home sales. Those are gonna be out on Tuesday and Wednesday. First thing we wanna talk about is the existing home sales report because that's the big one. It also comes out first, so we get to talk about it first. So, let's throw up here on your screen a chart of existing home sales, and what we have seen from that, going back to the beginning of 2022. You see up there, it's up high, more than 6 million homes sold per month. And that's coming down all the way to begin in 2023, and then, you see it pick back up again. And we've been kind of coming down. So, the big question is, do the July numbers continue that decline, that deceleration of home sales, or do they pick back up? Now, this is very important because mortgage rates have hit their highest in 22 years, just last week. Mortgage rates the highest in 22 years, the highest average rate, at least, for the 30 year mortgage in 22 years. And if those numbers do pick back up, if you do see an increase in the number of sales, well, that tells you that people are just shrugging those off and moving on with their lives and still continuing to go out and take those mortgages on, buy those homes. And that's a big deal because, again, it means they're paying a higher price and if they're buying a home and planning to rent it out, they're gonna charge higher rent. So, this chart really just illustrating the movement that we have seen from the existing home sales report and how that could be impacting and how it could impact Inflation. Expect it to decline this next month by 0.2%, month over month. Keep showing that level period, that's what economists are expecting. We'll see if that happens. Last month sales declined by 3.3%, prices fell by 0.9%, but year over year you saw prices start to pick, or month over month, excuse me, you saw prices start to pick back up. So, as those prices rise, as those rates rise, you could see, you know, again, Inflation start to rise, but lots of people have already been priced out of the housing market. Even more people could continue to be priced out of the housing market because we know about 80% of sales come from that existing home sales market. And again, as Inflation is cooled, housing has accounted for 60 to 80% of overall core Inflation of the core CPI that we've seen. So, this is a big deal for Inflation, a big deal for the Fed, a big deal for the overall market, so it'll be highly watched. Let's talk about next that new home sales report and wanna put that chart up here on your screen as well, so you can take a look at what we've been seeing. This chart going back to 2020. I wanted to put this on your screen to just give you a little bit more context about what we're seeing. Now, at the end of 2020, you see those numbers really start to pick up there going into 2021, over a million sales per month. That's big for new home sales. Those are usually much lower. We are not getting back towards that just yet. We're still, if you look out there on 2023, we're close to that 800,000, but we are picking up, we're seeing continued increase in new home sales, and largely that's because there's been a lot more new home supply. A lot of those home builders stocks have been going through the roof because they're building, building building, and they're finding all kinds of folks that wanna buy those new homes because they're saying, "You know what, if I gotta shell out a ton of money "I might as well get a new house." So, this chart again just illustrates the pickup that we've seen and the increase that we've seen consistently in new home sales, as there has not been supply of existing home sales. No one wants to sell their house and move, but there has been an increase in new homes and that has made new homes a bigger part of the overall housing market than what we've seen. Last but not least, wanna talk about the manufacturing and services, PMI reports that we will get this month, that we will get, sorry, this week about last month. Those are gonna tell us just how folks are feeling about the economy on the services side, as in your barber, your auto mechanic, your lawyer, those folks. And then, on the manufacturing side, those big businesses, and this could be big for stocks because right now we're seeing manufacturing really in a lull. It's been low. Folks have saying they're having low confidence, things aren't going well, but it's picked up recently and we need to see if that continues. Is there continued kind of bullishness enthusiasm for the manufacturing sector, or are people still having negative feelings about it and showing that's going down? If those continue to move lower, it could suggest more trouble for the stock market because, again, if you've got, first of all, let's point out most public companies and manufacturers, rather than services companies, when you think about the companies that are public that make up the S&P 500, and especially, the Dow, it's a lot more manufacturers, a lot more businesses that make things, or at least that produce things. Another weak reading could suggest, okay, well if rates have to stay high because Inflation's not coming down, but business sentiment is deteriorating and business conditions are deteriorating, well, that environment could stick around for a long time and that's not a good thing. Services on the other hand, have been strong, but they have started to weaken. So, you're kind of seeing manufacturing been weak, but getting a little better. Service has been strong, but getting a little worse. We'll see what happens on those fronts this week. Hey, listen, that's gonna do it for us here on Market Takes. Hope you enjoyed your time with us. I am Dion Rabouin, Reporter at the Wall Street Journal. We hope you'll come back and do it with us when we're right here again next time.