Name: Here's What Wall Street Is Predicting for the U.S. Economy and Stocks in 2024
Uploaded: 2024-01-17T12:00:00Z
Duration: 3 min 19 s
Description: What are the largest banks on Wall Street expecting for the stock market and the U.S. economy in 2024? WSJ’s Dion Rabouin digs into predictions from firms like Deutsche Bank, Citi, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo to explain what they see on the horizon. Photo illustration: Carlo Allegri/Reuters/Storyblocks

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What are the largest banks on Wall Street expecting for the stock market and the U.S. economy in 2024? WSJ’s Dion Rabouin digs into predictions from firms like Deutsche Bank, Citi, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo to explain what they see on the horizon. Photo illustration: Carlo Allegri/Reuters/Storyblocks

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Here's What Wall Street Is Predicting for the U.S. Economy and Stocks in 2024

Big investment banks and money managers didn't get much right in their predictions for 2023. Most were betting on a recession, rate cuts from the federal reserve and a middling year from the US stock market. Instead, the S&P 500 gained nearly 25%. The Fed raised rates, and the US economy grew with the fastest pace in years. So what are the big banks betting on in 2024? I'm gonna tell you what Wall Street is predicting for the economy, what they're expecting from the Fed, and how they're expecting the stock market to perform this year. Let's get into it. More than two-thirds of the economists at large financial institutions that do business directly with the Fed said they expected the US to have a recession in 2023. We detailed a couple of the recession predictions on this channel. Some analysts are saying that the recession that most of Wall Street predicted would hit this year hasn't been avoided. It's just been delayed. But it didn't happen. And in 2024, recession calls are few and far between among economists and market forecasters. Most big banks expect the US economy to grow by around 2% in line with its long-term trend. Citi is one of the few big banks predicting a recession this year, but even they aren't predicting the stock market will fall. The bank is calling for the S&P 500 to end 2024 just under 10% higher than where it end in 2023. Deutsche Bank is also predicting a US recession this year. The firm says the effects from the Fed's unprecedented rate hiking cycle in 2023 will bring about a mild recession this year. But they're also predicting that US stocks rise by nearly 10%. Most big banks are predicting the Fed will be cutting interest rates this year. A few believe it's because the US will have a recession, but most are predicting that with inflation falling below 3% at the end of 2023, it will get close to the Fed's 2% target this year. And that will mean that the US Central Bank can lower interest rates to loosen up the economy. When the Fed cuts rates, it is historically given a boost to stock and bond prices. That's expected to happen this year with most analysts predicting positive stock returns. At the end of 2023, market strategists predicted that the S&P 500 would rise to 5,132. That's about 10% higher than where the index closed the year according to FactSet. That was based on a collection of median target price estimates for all the companies in the benchmark US stock index. The last survey of 2023 by Bank of America Securities found that fund managers were the most optimistic in any month since January, 2022, and the most bullish on stocks since February, 2022. Some of the predictions for the best market returns come from firms like Fundstrat and Yardeni Research, which both called for the US to avoid a recession last year. Some of the lowest market expectations come from J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley. J.P. Morgan sees a challenging backdrop for markets overall and expects that companies will struggle to increase their profits significantly. And Morgan Stanley is expecting an increase in the number of companies defaulting on their loans. Big picture, most banks see solid economic growth, lower inflation, and higher stock prices this year, which sounds pretty good. But remember, big bank's predictions for 2023 didn't exactly pan out. So don't sleep.