Name: The Dollar Is Making a Comeback — That Could Be Bad News for the Stock Market
Uploaded: 2023-09-27T15:32:00Z
Duration: 3 min 20 s
Description: After weakening earlier this year, the U.S. dollar is pushing higher and could be headed back toward the 20-year high it touched in 2022. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains why this could be bad news for investors. Photo illustration: Noah Friedman

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After weakening earlier this year, the U.S. dollar is pushing higher and could be headed back toward the 20-year high it touched in 2022. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains why this could be bad news for investors. Photo illustration: Noah Friedman

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The Dollar Is Making a Comeback — That Could Be Bad News for the Stock Market

The dollar is getting stronger as it's starting to look like the US has the strongest economy in the world, but that's probably bad news for US companies and the stock market. I'm going to explain what's happening in markets that's pushing the value of the dollar higher, why it's happening now and is expected to continue, and why a stronger dollar typically means tough times for US stocks. Let's get into it. After rising to a 20-year high in September 2022, the dollar started falling and largely kept falling until July of this year. The currency weakened pretty consistently, declining along with inflation as the stock market rose, especially tech stocks. But all that changed in July, as US government bond yields started to rise, and stock prices started to fall. Higher government bond yields make currencies more attractive to traders because they need a country's local currency to buy its government bonds. When traders think a country's bond yields are going to keep rising, they typically buy up its currency, and that pushes up the value. This is an especially lucrative strategy for traders who buy when a currency's value is low, and it appreciates. Not only are they rewarded by the high bond yields but the currency's higher value gives them an additional return. Currencies also tend to rise in value when a country's economy strengthens in comparison to other countries. That's what's happened to the US over the past couple months. July was when China's economy first started showing signs of stress. Weak retail sales, a big slowdown in its real estate market, and rising unemployment have all slowed down Chinese growth. That has had a negative impact on many Asian and European countries because China's appetite for their goods was helping fuel their economies. As Chinese demand pulled back, economic growth in countries that used euros, pounds, and dollars, other than the US, started to weaken. The US economy is mostly supported by spending on services, like doctors, lawyers, and Uber drivers. So a slowdown in global trade doesn't hurt quite as much as it does in places like Germany or Vietnam. Win Thin, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, recently said, "If we look everywhere around the world, the US is sort of like the last man standing, and the dollar is coming strong this year." With a stronger economy, the central bank of the US, the Federal Reserve, is expected to hold rates higher for longer than other central banks. Unfortunately, this is not typically a good thing for the stock market. When the dollar hit its highest level since 2002 last year, half of all S&P 500 companies mentioned the strong dollar in their earnings reports, and most of them weren't celebrating. The S&P had its worst year since 2008. Certainly, that wasn't all about the strong dollar, but as lots of CEOs told us on their earnings calls, it didn't help. A strong dollar makes items more expensive in other countries, so American companies often sell fewer goods when the dollar's value rises. They also make less money because when they convert their foreign sales back to dollars, they often wind up with less. In Q2, Apple saw its revenue decline for the third quarter in a row and said that if it weren't for the strong dollar, its revenue would've gone up. With the dollar strengthening again, look for more and more companies to talk about it in the upcoming earnings season. It could also lead to more companies reporting lower earnings in the third quarter, and with the economy starting to slow down and fears about a recession rising, that could really dent the stock market.