Name: Falling Inflation and a Growing Economy: Why Aren’t Americans More Cheerful?
Uploaded: 2023-12-19T10:30:00Z
Duration: 3 min 27 s
Description: Stock prices are booming, the job market is strong and inflation is falling in the U.S. But consumer confidence remains historically low. Dion Rabouin explains why Americans might not be feeling all that confident. Photo: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg News

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Stock prices are booming, the job market is strong and inflation is falling in the U.S. But consumer confidence remains historically low. Dion Rabouin explains why Americans might not be feeling all that confident. Photo: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg News

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Falling Inflation and a Growing Economy: Why Aren’t Americans More Cheerful?

The US economy is on pace to grow six times faster than the Fed predicted at the beginning of the year, and to completely avoid the recession that just about every major investment bank predicted would happen. Stocks are jumping with the NASDAQ up by more than 35%. So why does everyone seem so bumped? It's not just that the vibes are off. There are three big reasons why the US is in economic expansion, but a confidence recession falling, real wages, declining affordability, and a rising imbalance between Americans' debt and their savings. It really is all about the numbers. Consumer confidence is lower than it has been 93% of the time since 1978. That decline in confidence has a lot to do with what's happening to American's pay. The latest data show that American's wages are still rising, but by some measures they're no longer keeping pace to the inflation, meaning real wages are falling. The latest CPI Inflation report showed real average weekly earnings rose in November, but had fallen in October for the third month in a row. US households earning less than $71,000 a year have seen their disposable income decline for five straight quarters. In addition to the stagnating wages many Americans are seeing, some things are getting much more expensive. A new study from real estate brokerage firm, Redfin, found that the average monthly mortgage payment in the US has more than doubled since 2013, and has risen by more than $1,400 since 2020. Redfin's study also found a record low 15% of homes were affordable this year, a 42% decrease from 2022, which had previously set the record for lowest number of affordable homes. Redfin defines a listing as affordable if the estimated monthly mortgage payment is no more than 30% of the local county's median income. Childcare payments have also jumped significantly. According to internal data from Bank of America, the average childcare payment per household has risen by more than 30% since 2019. And buying a car has also reached record levels of unaffordability. Car shopping website, Edmunds, found that a record high percentage of consumers who finance their vehicle were paying more than $1,000 a month. Falling affordability and the decline in real wages have led to Americans taking on billions more in debt while putting less in their savings. The US personal savings rate hit 3.8% in October. That's not only below the long-term average, it's less than half. According to government data going back to 1959, Moody's also found that Americans earning between 21,000 and around $71,000 a year have had a negative personal savings rate for five quarters in a row. So not only have those folks been unable to save for more than a year, most of them have been spending more money than they're bringing in. That imbalance is showing up in debt levels. US household debt balances increased by $228 billion in the third quarter alone according to the New York Fed. And after credit card balances rose by a record $154 billion in the third quarter. Americans now have more than $1 trillion of credit card debt for the first time ever. We're also seeing a significant increase in Americans who can't pay off their loans. Defaults on consumer loans rose to the highest level in more than 10 years last quarter. Put all of this together, and you can see why even with falling inflation, booming stock prices, and a strong job market, Americans aren't feeling all that confident these days.