Name: Eyes On the Oil Market As Government Reopens
Uploaded: 2025-11-18T15:24:00Z
Duration: 3 min 57 s
Description: Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at OPIS, joins Barron’s Laura Sanicola to discuss the return of key data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the forecast for oil production.

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Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at OPIS, joins Barron’s Laura Sanicola to discuss the return of key data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the forecast for oil production.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251118/6e255652-8641-4e16-85b2-e14d523ceb29/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Eyes On the Oil Market As Government Reopens

Hi everyone, this is Laura Sanicola, author of "Barron's Energy Insider," and I'm here today with Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Opus. Denton, thanks for joining me.

Hi Laura, how are you?

Good. So with the government shutdown finally ended, oil traders who've been really operating in the dark on certain key data that they use to kind of determine positioning are finally gonna start getting some more data going forward. You know, we're kind of flat to end the week on oil, but again, it's kind of tough to trade it when you don't have all the data that you need. Can you give us an understanding of what I'm talking about?

Yeah, sure. Well, the good thing is during this whole shutdown, we had the supply and demand data from the Energy Information Administration, but what we were missing, and we may have talked about this before, but data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, this gives us a good idea of the positioning of hedge funds and producers, et cetera. Now, granted for the Brent contract and through the ice you were able to see a commitments of traders report, but again, that's only half the picture. So now as the government reopens, that should start to, you know, kind of catch up on the CFTC side. So that'll give us a good idea of how hedge funds, et cetera, and the speculators in the market are positioning themselves.

And there hasn't been as much money chasing oil in the past year, considering a lot of the activity has been in commodities like gold and in big mag seven stocks. But, you know, we are expected to kind of stay at these levels or maybe even fall a little, right? We have some demand forecasts and some new Brent forecasts, you know, trickling down?

Yeah, one of the things that caught my attention this week was the International Energy Agency kind of boosting their demand forecast for 2025 and 2026. They're still the lowest as demand growth is concerned, and it's still below kind of historical levels, but that spread between say, them and OPEC who has the largest demand forecast growth, it's starting to narrow a little bit, but price expectations for 2026 are still relatively low. For example, the Energy Information, Energy Information Administration is forecasting Brent for 2026 at $55 a barrel. That's six, $7 below where we are right now. But that forecast has been raised by about $3 from the last short term energy outlook. And I think it's a little bit more of, hey, this flood of oil that we've been expecting, it may not emerge because demand might be a little bit better than we expected. We still have the Russian sanctions, drone strikes, things like that. And obviously, geopolitical tensions that are just kind of hanging over the market's head.

Something that caught my eye this week was at Chevron's Investor Day, they announced plans to increase production. The big oil majors are all increasing, but is it fair to say, you know, they've got low enough break-evens in their key regions that even if oil falls a little bit from this, you know, 60, 59 level right now, they'll still be in a good spot?

Yeah, they're amongst the handful that are considered best in class when it comes to pulling oil out of the ground in places like West Texas and the Permian Basin and other places. But also, you know, obviously you have long lead times and huge upfront investments in deep water, Gulf of Mexico production, but the cost per barrel are pretty low there. But, you know, those are projects that take 7, 8, 9 years to, for, you know, the first drop of oil to come to the market. Whereas, the lead time in shale oil is a lot shorter.

Right. All right, well thanks Denton, for joining me and thanks everybody else. We'll see you next week.