Name: How the Government Shutdown Is Impacting Oil Prices
Uploaded: 2025-10-13T14:00:00Z
Duration: 3 min 51 s
Description: Barron’s Daren Fonda talks to Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at OPIS, about changes in oil prices amid a government shutdown and geopolitical events.

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Barron’s Daren Fonda talks to Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at OPIS, about changes in oil prices amid a government shutdown and geopolitical events.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251010/759e764c-dd9c-430c-847b-1e4100923ec2/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

How the Government Shutdown Is Impacting Oil Prices

This is Daren Fonda, managing editor with Barron's. I'm here with Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Opus. How are you, Denton?

Hey, Daren, good to see you.

So let's start a little bit with the government shutdown. There's been a lack of data, and it seems that the market is flying blind a little bit. Can you talk about where you see the markets now and how the markets are sort of reacting to this data vacuum?

Sure. Well, it's a little bit of a mixed bag here because we are still getting weekly supply and demand data from the Energy Information Administration. Back in 2018, the last time we did have a government shutdown that lasted for about 34, 35 days, I can't remember which exactly it was, but the EIA didn't miss a beat on their weekly releases. So that's good. We at least have that to rely on. Now, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, they're currently not releasing data. So we have no idea about the positioning that's been taking place over the last, well, really since the government shut down. So, maybe half of maybe flying with one eye open is a better way to describe it.

Yeah, maybe not flying blind, but the markets just seem to be stuck with crude WTI and Brent pretty much in the 60s.

Yeah.

Very rangebound. Do you see anything that would trigger a breakout in either direction?

Yes, and like you said, we've been really kind of stuck in a range for much of the past three months. Two weeks ago, it looked like we were starting to break out a little bit to the upside that was very short-lived. Even last week, we started to break down towards the downside and kind of pop back into this range. I think the catalyst, or the next step, I should say, is gonna be lower. We might see WTI drop into the 50s. Now, we're priced in the 61-62 area. That's not some great prediction or anything like that. But we are expecting to see a glut of oil come into the market over the course of the fourth quarter and into 2026. You have OPEC adding more barrels to the market. You also have refining maintenance coming up here in the US in the Northern Hemisphere as we get ready for the winter season. Last week, the EIA had refinery utilization rates over 90%. That's a little bit high for this time of year. So gotta think those maintenance, planned maintenance at least is coming in the next week or two.

Yeah, some Wall Street banks have been cutting their estimates for Brent for 2026. I think Citi came out with an estimate of 61 to 63 for next year, which is similar to what Goldman has and some other of the big banks. That seems to be the consensus forecast. Meanwhile, OPEC has been gradually releasing more barrels into the market, but this notion that there's 5 million barrels a day of spare capacity that OPEC could unleash at any time seems to be just dying, that they are not going to be releasing nearly as much as feared.

Yeah. And again, 137 that they announced recently for November matched what they said for October. And obviously, as more barrels come back into the market, your spare capacity decreases. And spare capacity just can't flip a switch if something happens to bring that oil to the market, it does take a little bit of time. But again, something happens, then we could see prices break out to the upside. a spike in demand or more of the geopolitical events take place, obviously, the deal struck between Hamas and Israel remove some of that geopolitical risk premium that we've seen in the market. But the next step is certainly gonna be lower for oil prices probably into the 50s. You might even see Brent get down into the 50s, but it might be short-lived.

Okay. Thank you so much, Denton.

Thank you.