Name: Oil Market Reacts to Russian Sanctions
Uploaded: 2025-10-27T18:15:00Z
Duration: 3 min 58 s
Description: Barron’s Laura Sanicola talks to Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at OPIS, about new sanctions on Russian oil companies and third quarter earnings.

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Barron’s Laura Sanicola talks to Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at OPIS, about new sanctions on Russian oil companies and third quarter earnings.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251027/2e91917c-5c19-4bba-aef2-980f79d6d500/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Oil Market Reacts to Russian Sanctions

Hi, everyone. This is Laura Sanicola, author of "Barron's Energy Insider," and I'm here today with Denton Cinquegrana, Chief Oil Analyst at OPIS. Denton, thanks for joining me.

Thanks, Laura. How are you today?

Good, so let's talk oil. We've got a new fresh round of sanctions on Russian oil, but, Denton, enlighten us. How is this round different than what's been enacted previously, and what's it done to the price of crude?

Yeah, well, it's certainly driven up the price of crude and refined products, particularly diesel over the last couple of days since those tariffs on Rosneft and Lukoil had been announced. It's really kind of the first time you see individual, you know, Russian companies being sanctioned as well. Maybe it's a ploy to get, you know, Russia to the negotiating table, so we'll have to wait and see about that. But to me, this rally seems to be mostly short-covering. Unfortunately, we're not getting Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, but we are getting data from the CME Group, which runs the NYMEX, and that data is showing that open interest is going down. Now the rule of thumb that I like to use is when the market goes up, open interest goes down, it's short covering, not always, but you know, it's kind of a good rule of thumb and a good way to kind of explain what might be happening. Now the question is how much further can this rally extend? You got your short covering now. Now you need to find some evidence of tightening supply to get kind of more long accumulation in the market. And with all the talk of growing supply glut with OPEC bringing more barrels back, it may be difficult to get the a real, like, kind of juiced-up buying.

Right, so it might be reasonable to expect, especially if these sanctions are lifted in the next few days, if there is more momentum with conversations with Russia that the rally will won't extend.

That's exactly it. I mean, maybe it looks like right now, we're getting a little bit of a leveling off process and kind of cooling off, and probably the market's waiting for what's the next shoe to drop, if you will. Do we go back up? Do we continue to rise, or do we just kind of come back into the, you know, high 50s for WTI and the low 60s for Brent?

Right, and so it's a little too early to think about how this might affect fourth quarter earnings, but for the third quarter , we've got refiners starting to report. Some oil companies as well. Really banner year for refiners. They're up like 40% from January. How'd the third quarter look for them and what are they saying about what's to come?

Yeah, well, we've kind of called it in these videos in the past where we said, "Hey, look, the third quarter's looking pretty good for refining margins." And that was indeed the case. We're starting to hear that. The one thing that stood out to me is Valero has confirmed that they are indeed gonna close that refinery in northern California. One of the things that's been pretty evident in the Energy Information Administration data is that there's more barrels coming into the West Coast, into PADD 5. Now you can't necessarily strip out California from that. It's a little bit more difficult, but you're starting to see more barrels of gasoline come into the California and West Coast markets in general via foreign sources.

Right, and I know that we got some commentary from Valero executives talking about how, so far, it looks like the heavy sour crudes that you ask for refineries process, they're getting cheaper. Asia is not buying as much, and we're starting to see widening discounts. So does this spell more good news for refiners?

Yeah, I think so, especially as you're heading into the fourth quarter, which is typically a low marking period for refining margins. So usually, the last quarter of the year and probably the first quarter gets carried by diesel a little bit. Obviously, if you're looking at a more heavy sour, probably a little bit more distillate rich, so that's obviously a cheaper crude. Good news for refiners.

All right, well, thanks so much, Denton, and thanks everyone for joining us. We'll see you next week.