Name: Tanker Seizure, Refining Margins, and New Capacity
Uploaded: 2025-12-15T20:14:00Z
Duration: 5 min 18 s
Description: Barron’s Laura Sanicola talks to Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst for OPIS, about the reaction to the U.S. seizure of a sanctioned Venezuelan oil tanker, the recent drop in refining margins, and the impact of new refinery capacity from Nigeria and Mexico.

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Barron’s Laura Sanicola talks to Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst for OPIS, about the reaction to the U.S. seizure of a sanctioned Venezuelan oil tanker, the recent drop in refining margins, and the impact of new refinery capacity from Nigeria and Mexico.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251215/53222fa0-e929-4c99-809c-f296d574c60d/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Tanker Seizure, Refining Margins, and New Capacity

Hi, everyone, this is Laura Sanicola, author of "Barron's Energy Insider." And I'm here today with Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at OPIS. Denton, thanks for joining me.

Hey, Laura, how are you today?

Good, so let's talk about the big news of the week, which is that the US has seized an oil tanker. First time it's seized. It's a Venezuelan oil tanker that is a tanker that's bringing Venezuelan fuel exports, or crude exports, rather, to the market. Market's not really reacted. Tell me about the significance of this.

Yeah, very muted response by the markets. WTI and Brent are still, well, WTI's in the upper 50s, Brent, low 60s, really hasn't moved all that much. The move this week has actually been down, but overall. There was a small upward reaction, kinda market cut some losses after the news broke about the Venezuelan tanker. But you gotta remember, at the end of the day, Venezuelan crude is sanctioned. They're exporting maybe about a million barrels a day. So it's not, in the grand scheme of things, a huge loss of product, especially as we are anticipating a large oversupply, meaning supplies is higher than demand for 2026 is being forecasted and even into 2027.

Right, so while there's potential for escalation here, you know, the impact on what's already sanctioned crude is kind of estimated to be relatively limited in your view?

Yeah, I think it's, you know, again, about a million barrels a day of exports coming from Venezuela. So in the grand scheme of things, how much oil's being produced out there? It's I wouldn't say a drop in the bucket, but it's not a significant amount.

Great, and let's move on to refining. Some of the refiners ended the week a little lower, and you know, I think part of it is that the margins for refiners are coming down a little bit. Tell me about why that might be.

Yeah, so refining margins have been hit this week and really over the last couple of weeks. So ever since the diesel crack spread using the futures market popped to about $52 a barrel, it's dropped over 30%. It's still at about 33, 34, $35 a barrel. Gasoline has dropped to about $16 a barrel from roughly 20 or so. So again, both of these have dropped by about 30%. What's happened is, obviously, inventories are building. This is a real time of year where gasoline stocks really start to build between now and the end of January. So I would expect more pressure on gasoline. Diesel has really kinda fallen apart over the last really two weeks. A lotta that has to do with European gasoil. So the two markets work in tandem with one another. And really, it was the gasoil market that's really pulled diesel down with it. So that's really kinda what's happened there in the diesel market. But again, while these crack spreads are down quite a bit over the last couple of weeks, they're still better than what they were this time last year for the fourth quarter, and there's still obviously a couple weeks left for the fourth quarter. But the diesel crack for the fourth quarter's probably gonna end up averaging about, you know, 38, $39 a barrel, which is, you know, probably about 10, 15% higher than this time last year. And gasoline's probably gonna be in the 17, $18 a barrel, which last year at this time, the fourth quarter of 2024, averaged probably about $13 a barrel. So, you know, maybe perhaps the demise of refiners has been a little bit exaggerated.

I think that could be the case. There is the potential for some more headwinds next year. I noticed Mizuho, which has Valero as a, you know, a key outperformer in the refining sector, did downgrade the stock from buy to neutral, citing, you know, potentially weaker refining margins next year from current levels, as you said, already elevated as some major new refining projects move online in the first half of 2026 or really ramp up. You know, how would that impact the market and which are those?

Yeah, so when you talk about the Atlantic Basin and new refineries and new capacity coming online, you gotta start with Nigeria's Dangote Refinery. 650,000 barrels a day, not actually hitting that full stride yet, but they're getting a lot closer to being able to make US-spec gasoline and European-spec gasoline. So getting closer, but they do have maintenance in January and February coming up. And then the other one is the Dos Bocas Refinery in Mexico. You know, again, this is one that we've kinda been waiting on for the last couple of years. A couple months ago, they hit 54% of capacity, of refining capacity, which is not great, but for a refinery that's just kinda getting under its feet, getting its feet underneath them, I should say, it's starting to get there. From what I understand, they can make US-spec diesel right now. So it's gonna be one that can has potential to alter some of the supplies, meaning they'll be able to supply Mexico and may not necessarily rely so much on US imports of diesel. So the US may have a little bit of diesel buildup as a result of that.

All right, well, thanks so much, Denton, for breaking this all down. And thanks, everyone, for joining us. We'll see you next week.