Name: Tariffs, Refineries, and Seasonal Shifts Impacting the Oil Market
Uploaded: 2025-09-02T19:04:00Z
Duration: 3 min 26 s
Description: Barron's Laura Sanicola and OPIS' Denton Cinquegrana discuss the impact of tariffs on India and the refining landscape in California.

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Barron's Laura Sanicola and OPIS' Denton Cinquegrana discuss the impact of tariffs on India and the refining landscape in California.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20250902/fe6987e7-e098-48a3-926a-231c81fc4523/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Tariffs, Refineries, and Seasonal Shifts Impacting the Oil Market

Hi everyone, this is Laura Sanicola, author of "Barron's Energy Insider," and I'm here today with Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at OPIS. Denton, thanks for joining me.

Hi Laura. How are you?

So let's talk oil. Tariffs on India are officially in effect, and you would think that this would be having a bigger impact on oil markets. Can you explain to me if markets are moving at all and if not, why?

Yeah, for much of August, WTI was in a range of about 61 to 65, call it, maybe a little bit more than that, 66 or so. We're just at the top end of that range. Add about $3, $4 to that for Brent. I think what's happening here is, you know, there's OPEC barrels coming back to the market, but you also have India perhaps, you know, settling out a little bit of an olive branch and looking for alternative sources other than Russia. Because if, yes, the tariffs is one thing, but if the Trump administration decides on, say, sanctions against India, that could change the dynamic, obviously. But it doesn't look like the tariffs are having too big of an impact on the price of oil today, especially as we're coming out of the summer driving season. Also, the Middle East is not gonna be using as much oil to burn for cooling purposes. So demand should start to trickle lower, and you should, and you also have refinery turnarounds coming up in the fall season. So demand and supply should kind of flip-flop, where there's more supply than demand, and that's why you saw some fourth quarter estimates of Brent in the low 60s versus the 67, 68, where it is right now.

And speaking of refining, paint me a picture of what's going on in California. They've, it's one of the biggest oil consuming states in the country, and a number of refineries have already closed in the region, and a few more I think are set to close this year. What's it looking like in that region?

Yeah, so Phillips 66 is planning on closing its Wilmington refinery in Southern California. Valero has plans to close its Venetia refinery towards the end of the first quarter, beginning of second quarter of next year. So the upcoming one is Phillips 66 at Wilmington, Southern California, Los Angeles area. You know, it takes time to shut down a refinery safely, particularly for the community at a whole, and the workers there as well. You gotta consider that. So it, you know, it's probably gonna get started within the next week or so. The timeline originally given was about October 1st. So it does take time to shut down a refinery safely and soundly. So that process getting started within the next week or so is probably not much of a surprise, but with a pretty heavy turnaround slate in Southern California, or in California in general, gasoline might get a little tight. And RVP, which means the transition from winter grade to summer grade gasoline, and vice versa, as we go into the fall, California's the last to go. They don't go until the end of October. So there could be, and again, emphasize could be, some real issues as you get towards that tail end of the low RVP summer season.

All right, thanks breaking that down, Denton, and thanks everyone for joining us. We'll see you next week.