Name: Unpacking Conflicting Supply-Demand Forecasts in the Oil Market
Uploaded: 2025-09-15T14:19:00Z
Duration: 2 min 43 s
Description: Barron’s Laura Sanicola talks to OPIS’ Denton Cinquegrana about the differences in the forecasts, what’s driving them, and what to expect moving forward.

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Barron’s Laura Sanicola talks to OPIS’ Denton Cinquegrana about the differences in the forecasts, what’s driving them, and what to expect moving forward.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20250915/eb8485b4-bda0-4d40-a363-c146d013b09b/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Unpacking Conflicting Supply-Demand Forecasts in the Oil Market

Hi everyone, this is Laura Sanicola, author of "Barron's Energy Insider," and I'm here today with Denton Cinquegrana, Chief Oil Analyst at Opus. Denton, thanks for joining me.

Thanks, Laura. Good to see you again.

You too. So OPEC and the IEA are out again with diverging oil supply and demand forecast. Surprise, surprise. Feels like we talk about this every month. Give us the lowdown on how they're looking at supply-demand balances going forward.

Yeah, the two groups are on just two completely different pages. You have the IEA saying demand growth in 2025, about 737, let's call it 750,000 barrels a day for nice round even numbers. Meanwhile, OPEC is at 1.3 million barrels a day. So really the truth probably lies somewhere in between. The IEA is calling for just a huge surplus for 2025 of 2.7 million barrels a day. I just don't know if that's gonna materialize like that.

Right, and why, is that? Because of the economic data you're looking at or what are traders telling you? What do you think?

I think it's a little bit of both, but also the fact that IEA is playing up or using the increases in OPEC+ production that have been announced monthly. Most recently, they announced 137,000 barrel a day billed for October. But again, some of these barrels just don't seem to be materializing, at least into OECD storage tanks. They're showing up perhaps more in China and in floating storage. So I think until you start to see the US and Europe and, you know, other developed countries see their oil inventories start to really grow, I think this market is gonna remain resilient and kind of in this low 60-ish range for WTI and, you know, mid to upper 60s for Brent. It's gonna take a little bit of time, but I do still believe the next step for oil prices is lower. And I think, you know, that really kinda should take place as refinery maintenance for the fall starts to come into play. So you're gonna have to wait until probably late September, early October. If you just go from August to September, you know, looking at it historically, WWTI and Brent, it's been pretty mixed. You know, some years it's up, some years it's down a couple bucks, so September is probably a little too soon to expect a real drop in oil prices.

All right, thanks so much Denton for breaking that down and thanks everyone for joining us. We'll see you next week.