Name: Three Charts That Help Explain What’s Behind the AI Bubble Fears
Uploaded: 2025-10-24T21:04:00Z
Duration: 2 min 53 s
Description: Investors have grown more concerned over the run-up in tech stocks and valuations of private AI companies, stoking fears of a bubble. WSJ’s Hannah Erin Lang uses three charts to explain what’s behind Wall Street’s jitters.

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Investors have grown more concerned over the run-up in tech stocks and valuations of private AI companies, stoking fears of a bubble. WSJ’s Hannah Erin Lang uses three charts to explain what’s behind Wall Street’s jitters. Photo Illustration: Ryan Trefes

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251024/bc3f1f01-cdc5-43d0-8728-ad1b4bbfe34b/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Investors have grown more concerned over the run-up in tech stocks and valuations of private AI companies, stoking fears of a bubble. WSJ’s Hannah Erin Lang uses three charts to explain what’s behind Wall Street’s jitters.

Three Charts That Help Explain What’s Behind the AI Bubble Fears

We're hearing more and more concerns on Wall Street that the surge in AI investment is starting to resemble a bubble.

Are we in an AI bubble?

Of course.

These companies are considered major drivers of the AI trade, and they make up about a third of the S&P 500. When one of these stocks moves up or down, they can take the entire market with them. We're taking a look at three charts that help explain what's going on. This first chart takes a look at the concentration of the S&P 500 in the information technology and communication services sector by market cap, and you can see here that the concentration has reached levels last seen during the .com era. One worry is that this creates really high expectations for these companies. Something like a negative earnings report or even a positive earnings report that isn't considered positive enough could have an outsized impact on the stock price of a company like Tesla or Nvidia, and therefore an outsized impact on the whole market. Let's take a look at the late 1990s into the early 2000s, an era known as the .com bubble. This was a period when the NASDAQ composite climbed 500% over the course of five years. Small investors stampeded into speculative technology stocks lured by the promise of another innovative technology at the time, the Internet.

Reporter: The worst hit shares around the world have been the technology stocks, including the.com companies. Unfortunately, that bubble burst and it took several companies down with it. That brings us to chart two, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft. This takes a look at their capital expenditures by quarter, and as you can see, it's increased a lot in recent years. A lot of the spending is on infrastructure like data centers, a very costly, speculative bet that this technology will rapidly improve, remake the economy, and eventually start turning a profit. The big question here is when and how all this AI investment will pay off. One estimate from Bain & Company found that AI infrastructure will require two trillion in revenue by 2030 to justify current levels of spending. That's leaving investors wondering when and how they're going to start to see profits. That brings us to our last chart, which shows us profits and free cash flow for those same four companies. Free cash flow is an important metric for investors because it shows what's left over at a company after they pay their operating expenses and capital expenditures. One key difference between today's market leaders and those of the .com era is that these are mature companies with profits and cash on hand. By contrast, 25 years ago, a lot of the most popular bets were companies without profits that were burning through cash at any cost to grow. It's hard for anybody, even professionals on Wall Street, to tell when we're in a bubble. But thinking back to 25 years ago, investors remind me that the thesis was right. The Internet did change everything and it remade the economy, but it could take years for this dynamic to play out now. And until then, we might not know if the enthusiasm around AI is just that or if it has crossed into a rational euphoria.

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