Name: War Keeps Russia’s Economy Alive, but for How Much Longer?
Uploaded: 2025-08-05T09:13:00Z
Duration: 5 min 32 s
Description: As President Trump turns up the economic pressure to push Moscow to reach a cease-fire, WSJ explains how Russia’s economy has survived and how long it can keep going.

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As President Trump turns up the economic pressure to push Moscow to reach a cease-fire, WSJ explains how Russia’s economy has survived and how long it can keep going. Photo Illustration: Gergo Varga

https://m.wsj.net/video/20250805/e6f83086-efd1-475d-b39c-afdfcd6181cb/3/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

As President Trump turns up the economic pressure to push Moscow to reach a cease-fire, WSJ explains how Russia’s economy has survived and how long it can keep going.

War Keeps Russia’s Economy Alive, but for How Much Longer?

Reporter: Despite more than three years of war, huge military expenses and waves of sanctions, Russia's economy appears to be thriving.

Reporter: But as President Trump threatens harsh economic sanctions-

We just don't see any progress being made.

Reporter: and cracks begin to show, how long can it last?

War has been a huge stimulus for the Russian economy, but they can't continue doing this forever. The reality is, they're likely to run out of money.

Reporter: Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has ramped up its military spending.

If we go back to 2022, Russian defense spending was about $50 billion a year. They are now spending close to $150 billion a year on their military.

Reporter: As the war continues, President Trump has vowed to turn up the economic pressure on Moscow, threatening tariffs and secondary sanctions if a ceasefire isn't reached.

Russia could be so rich right now. Instead, they spend all their money on war. They spend everything on war and killing people, and it doesn't make sense.

Reporter: But Russia has shown it can adapt to economic pressure. Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has become the most-sanctioned major economy on the planet.

We had statements from Western leaders like, "Turning the ruble to rubble." This was intended to bring the Russian economy to a complete halt. It was meant to make the continuation of the war completely unpalatable.

Reporter: Despite this, in 2024, Russia's economy outpaced the growth of most advanced nations, including the US.

There was a deep economic contraction in 2022, it was 2% of GDP. And by the way, that's about the same as the impact of COVID on the Russian economy. But what's interesting is that they bounced back very, very quickly.

Reporter: Analysts say Russia was able to avoid the impact of current sanctions by reorienting its economy.

The EU was lost as an export market almost entirely, the two big export markets for Russia, China and India, effectively they have reorientated towards the export of fuels to China and India. Because that reorientation was possible, that's one of the reasons the sanctions haven't really bit in as much as we might expect.

Reporter: In addition, Moscow turned its economic focus on supplying its war effort in Ukraine, with even the most unlikely companies focusing on war. Russian State TV broadcast a segment about a bread factory that swapped dough for drones.

They're spending a tremendous amount of money on armaments. So this being the expansion of the military industrial complex, that's hoovered up labor. So we've seen unemployment in Russia actually fall to a 30-year low.

- [Reporter] has largely been able to sustain these high levels of spending thanks to its oil and gas sector, which makes up around 20% of Russia's GDP. But analysts warn this can't last forever.

By rights, Russia should have a budget surplus at the moment. That surplus should be going into their national wealth fund. What we've seen is that they're spending far more than they're bringing in. And the way they are supplementing that is by running down their remaining reserves. So at the present burn rate, we see them running out at about 2030.

Reporter: With President Trump threatening to come down hard on Russia, concerns are growing that this could have far-reaching consequences.

There's been a suggestion of 100% secondary tariffs. So those who buy from Russia, say buy Russian oil, would be hit with tariffs entering the US market. China and India are the main buyers of Russian oil. They collectively account for almost half of Russian exports. Let's imagine if they were to stop buying Russian oil completely, that would be catastrophic for the Russian economy. Russia looks to oil and gas receipts for anything from 1/3 to 1/2 of its annual budget. More broadly, this would create a tremendous oil shock in the world. So the price of oil would rocket, it could be recession inducing.

Reporter: Trump's threats also come as cracks in Russia's economy are beginning to show.

Now inflation has been high, but wage inflation has been even higher. So if anything, the standard of living of Russians has improved. The problem, of course, is that this is not sustainable, that eventually Russia is gonna hit the fiscal buffers.

Reporter: Despite the economic risks, experts believe Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his goal of seizing as much of Ukraine as possible, and that Russia will try to sustain its military economy for years to come as they eye conflicts beyond Ukraine.

If you look at Russian defense expenditure, 2025 is likely to be a peak, but that's on the basis that at some point there will be a ceasefire. At that point, we'd expect defense spending to moderate. But we don't see spending going back to the 2022 or 2021 level. It's gonna stay elevated. Russia would say that it still faces threats. It would argue that NATO is a threat, so they need to be prepared. I think they do understand that at some point this war will have to come to an end, but of course, politically, Russia is going to seek to do that on its own terms.

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