Name: WSJ Poll Reveals Three Warnings for Republicans Ahead of 2026 Midterms
Uploaded: 2026-01-16T23:56:00Z
Duration: 4 min
Description: WSJ’s Aaron Zitner breaks down three warning signs from the latest WSJ poll for President Trump and the Republican party ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

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WSJ’s Aaron Zitner breaks down three warning signs from the latest WSJ poll for President Trump and the Republican party ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Photo: Umit Gulsen; Evan Vucci/Associated Press

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260116/592eb6e7-1d43-403b-a8d0-1757f8a157eb/3/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

WSJ’s Aaron Zitner breaks down three warning signs from the latest WSJ poll for President Trump and the Republican party ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

WSJ Poll Reveals Three Warnings for Republicans Ahead of 2026 Midterms

Our new Wall Street Journal poll has some warning signs for the Republican Party as we head into this midterm year, and a lot of them have to do with deteriorating views of how the party is handling the economy. So let's talk about three cautions we see in this new poll for the Republican Party. Caution number one, voters are very unhappy about the economy. As you can see in this chart, when we talked to voters back in July, negative views of the economy outweighed positive views, but only by four points. In the new poll, these negative views outweigh positive views by 15 points. 57% of people in this new poll say the economy is either not so good or poor, well ahead of the share who think the economy is in good shape or excellent shape. Caution number two, when we asked voters to compare the two political parties on which is better able to handle the economy, the Republican advantage is shrinking. Back in July, voters preferred the Republican party over the Democratic party as stewards of the economy by 12 percentage points. In the new poll, that's fallen to six points, and when we asked which party was better able to handle inflation, the Republican lead of 10 percentage points back in July has also fallen to six percentage points today. Caution number three has to do with President Trump himself and his handling of the economy. Now, we asked voters whose policies are most responsible for the economy we have today? President Trump's policies or those of his predecessor, Joe Biden. And 58% of voters said this is Trump's economy. 31% said Biden's policies were most important in considering the economy of today. Having said this is Trump's economy, voters are telling us that they think he's taken his eye off the ball. When we ask about various parts of Trump's agenda, a majority says he is not looking out for the middle class. A majority says he's not focusing sufficiently on the economy, and a majority says that his attention overseas on places like Venezuela and Greenland is distracting. One consequence of all of this is that when we ask voters which party they think they'll vote for, for House and Senate in the coming elections, Democrats lead by four percentage points. Now, that's not a big lead, but when we asked this question before the last election, the presidential election of 2024, Republicans led on that question by four points. Now, there are some caveats to all of this, and the Democratic Party is facing some significant challenges. First and foremost, the Democratic party image is tarnished. When we asked people how they view the party, negative views of the party outweigh favorable views by 19 percentage points. That's marginally better than back in July. Back then, the Democratic party recorded its worst ever image rating ever in Wall Street Journal polling, dating back more than 30 years. Now, last time Donald Trump headed into a midterm election, that was in 2018, during his first term in office, by this point, we saw more momentum for the Democratic Party than we're seeing today, and Democrats made big gains in those midterm elections. Back then, when we asked voters which party they intended to vote for, people were favoring the Democratic party over the Republicans by between six points and 10 points, compared with the four point lead today. And even though 54% of people in this new poll disapprove of Donald Trump's job performance, back then in 2018 at this point, it was even higher, 57%. President Trump has put out a number of proposals lately aimed at making life more affordable.

Healthcare costs will come down very fast.

Aaron: He's talked about capping credit card interest rates and helping people who are buying homes. We'll just have to wait and see whether any of those proposals make a material change in voters' lives and whether it changes their views of the two parties ahead of the midterm elections.

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