Name: WSJ Reporter on Why Venezuelan Oil Won't Flood Markets Anytime Soon
Uploaded: 2026-01-05T23:39:00Z
Duration: 3 min 24 s
Description: Oil prices barely budged after the U.S. ousted Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and President Trump pledged billions to revive the country’s oil infrastructure. WSJ’s David Uberti breaks down the market reaction.

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Oil prices barely budged after the U.S. ousted Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and President Trump pledged billions to revive the country’s oil infrastructure. WSJ’s David Uberti breaks down the market reaction. Photo: Matias Delacroix/Associated Press

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260105/ea507f40-2e91-4ac7-8cbf-941096b0aabf/3/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Oil prices barely budged after the U.S. ousted Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and President Trump pledged billions to revive the country’s oil infrastructure. WSJ’s David Uberti breaks down the market reaction.

WSJ Reporter on Why Venezuelan Oil Won't Flood Markets Anytime Soon

Oil markets are muted following the US incursion into Venezuela, the ousted President Nicholas Maduro and that wait and see approach really reflects the amount of uncertainty there is within the global market as far as bringing some of that Venezuelan oil production back online. This chart shows US oil prices and benchmark US crude futures recently traded for around $58 per barrel. This is a normal day-to-day fluctuation in the oil market and doesn't really reflect a huge geopolitical shift. Investment decisions in the oil industry often play out over the course of years and take billions of dollars at a time. Meanwhile, you need political certainty to actually take these investment decisions. I spent the last couple of days speaking to analysts in the oil industry as well as investors on Wall Street and the long and short of it is that they say it's too early to tell on how this will all shake out.

We're gonna rebuild the oil infrastructure, which will cost billions of dollars. It'll be paid for by the oil companies directly.

Now Venezuela, over the course of time, has become a much less influential oil producer due to years of underinvestment and mismanagement by the state run oil company. As you can see with this chart, Venezuelan oil imports to the United States totaled more than one million barrels per day at various points in the 1990s and early 2,000s. More recently, those imports have flowed to a trickle. Within investing for the energy industry you have geologic factors, you have infrastructural factors, and you also have political factors. Now Venezuela boasts pretty incredible geology with its oil reserves, but its infrastructure, the actual metal in the ground that you need to mine oil has deteriorated over the course of time. Meanwhile, its political institutions have also withered, and those last two buckets of factors are really what investors are keying in on as they're evaluating Venezuela going forward. Despite all the uncertainty, investors this week have been fairly optimistic about the outlook for some of these US oil plays in Venezuela, and a part of that was with the actual oil producers themselves, Chevron stock, for example, traded upwards on Monday, but the actual bigger benefit might be within the US refining sector. You have companies such as Phillips 66, Valero, and others, companies that have some of these assets on the US Gulf Coast that really like Venezuelan crude oil, their stocks have traded higher this week. Over the course of decades, various American companies have operated in Venezuela. There was ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and of course Chevron. About 20 years ago the Venezuelan government nationalized some of those assets, particularly those from ExxonMobil and Conoco Phillips. More recently, Chevron has continued to operate in Venezuela through a licensing deal through the US government. They're operating around existing sanctions. That history leaves a big question mark for how these companies will operate going forward. Chevron continues to operate of course, but other companies have been very mum on where they go from here. Oil prices have languished over the last couple of years and recently they've been trading south of $60 a barrel. Now, while oil companies are able to make a profit at that price, it doesn't really incentivize the type of massive investments that President Trump is talking about here. And until there is a runup in prices or some other incentive from the US government, it will be a hard sell to get companies to pull the trigger in massive potentially billion dollar investments.

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