Name: Who Has the Upper Hand at the Xi-Trump Summit?
Uploaded: 2026-05-14T12:15:00Z
Duration: 5 min 16 s
Description: As the leaders of the world’s two superpowers meet in Beijing, the WSJ’s Jonathan Cheng and Alex Ward examine the biggest challenges facing both sides– and which leader may feel more confident.

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As the leaders of the world’s two superpowers meet in Beijing, the WSJ’s Jonathan Cheng and Alex Ward examine the biggest challenges facing both sides– and which leader may feel more confident. Photo: Maxim Shemetov/POOL/EPA/Shutterstock

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260514/72d6dfa8-b0d0-41d4-86c3-d188ad18d60a/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

As the leaders of the world’s two superpowers meet in Beijing, the WSJ’s Jonathan Cheng and Alex Ward examine the biggest challenges facing both sides– and which leader may feel more confident.

Who Has the Upper Hand at the Xi-Trump Summit?

Xi Jinping, China's leader coming into this is gonna feel very confident. He's gonna feel confident because what we saw with the trade war last year when Trump returned to office, he unleashed all these tariffs on China, raised them over 100%. And yet, we saw that that wasn't really able to bring China to heel. China responded with these restrictions on rare earth exports and that caused the Trump administration to back down right away. So I think what China's shown is that it does have some very effective tools against the US and that Donald Trump isn't gonna be able to simply show up here in Beijing and push China around.

You're totally right that Xi probably has the upper hand here after those export controls. But Trump never goes into a meeting thinking he's the weaker partner. He's definitely coming in thinking he's the stronger player. The fact, even though the first meeting got canceled because of Iran, I think he's still going, "Hey, Iran, you know, that's a separate issue. Venezuela, Cuba, those are separate issues. I can handle the China relationship largely because Xi is my friend."

So what's happening with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz is definitely a strategic opportunity for China. I think they see a point of leverage here in dealing with the US being bogged down here, but it's also a massive headache for China as well. China relies on Iran for 12% of its crude oil imports. And so this is something that will start to pinch the Chinese economy, even though they've done extraordinary work in the last few years in terms of shoring up these vulnerabilities and making sure that they have redundancies and they're able to access energy and oil from even within its own borders.

I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support.

On Iran, I think you'd rather be Xi than Trump. China doesn't necessarily want this war. It's causing an energy crisis. But at the same time, it's great leverage for these conversations, 'cause Xi doesn't have to necessarily actually broker a deal. He just has to tell Trump that he'll help. And if you're Xi, you go, "Hey, you know, President Trump, Don, my buddy, my pal, I'm happy to talk to the Iranians for you, but I'm gonna need something from you in return." And Trump might be desperate enough on Iran to concede something. One of the more curious things about this summit is whenever a US and Chinese leader meet, Taiwan is usually like the thing, and it feels like a second or even third order issue here on the agenda. I think that's largely because Trump doesn't wanna deal with Taiwan. Whenever he talks about it, he usually talks about geography, "That island is so close to China, it's far away from us." He of course never commits to defending the island if anything were to happen, in line with US policy. But he does talk about the issue as if the US is gonna be a bit hands off. And so if you're Xi, you might try to get Trump to say something like, "Hey, instead of that US policy about, you know, we do not support Taiwanese independence, how about you say you oppose it?"

For Xi Jinping and for China, this is issue number one, two, and three. This is really the one big question in Xi Jinping's mind. And I think that we are gonna perhaps see Xi Jinping try and push Donald Trump on this very point that you raised this question of whether or not you do not support Taiwanese independence or you oppose it. Again, it seems like a semantic difference, but it is a difference that matters to the Chinese.

Good to see you again.

Good to see you again.

So I was in Busan, South Korea for that Trump-Xi meeting late last year. And I remember feeling that that was this kind of moment where both sides created this trade truce, right? They're at each other's throat and now they step back from that brink and are trying to sort of feel each other out, whether it's on the rare earth issue or on tariffs. They're just trying to make sure that that problem doesn't spill over to some grander strategic competition or confrontation issue.

The Chinese, they talk a lot about choke points, preventing the other side from getting a choke hold on you. And so I think if that truces that we saw last year were to lapse, I think what you would see is the US ratchet up tariffs again on China, but then China would immediately implement and respond with these rare earth restrictions, which I think would then put a choke hold on Detroit, on a lot of industries that are very dear to America.

No matter what, Trump is gonna go back onto Air Force 1 and claim victory. And victory doesn't necessarily mean that the US came out on top in economic or trade negotiations. Victory will be that a meeting happened at all and that it went okay. I mean, this is really, Trump just wanted to come say hi to Xi, make sure that their personal relationship is okay. And Trump firmly believes that if personal relationships are good, that extends to the bilateral relationship. So if Trump and Xi are good, US and China are good, it's a big win for Trump as he heads home.

The Chinese are very attuned to the US political calendar and I think they know that Donald Trump is not going to be the president in a few more years. And I think the thinking in Beijing here is placate Donald Trump. Keep him from turning his ire towards us. But otherwise, I think, if we can abide our time, we can continue to build up our capabilities. And I think all they want right now is to ensure that Donald Trump doesn't put them at the center of the crosshairs.

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