Name: WSJ Opinion: Trump Blockades Iran Again, While Saying the U.S. Will Guard Hormuz
Uploaded: 2026-07-14T19:24:00Z
Duration: 23 min 18 s
Description: Donald Trump reinstates his naval blockade of Iran and pledges to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, with or without its help. Yet his initial talk of charging a 20% toll confused his message, and if oil prices rise will he make his case to voters?

https://www.barrons.com/client

“It is possible - there is luck involved in this business, too,” Aradhana Sarin, chief financial officer of AstraZeneca, tells Barron’s Andy Serwer while discussing their goals for 2030.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260814/4d10e498-5878-4050-a620-369a90991088/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

AstraZeneca CFO Discusses Ambitious Revenue Targets

Aradhana Sarin, chief financial officer of AstraZeneca, tells Barron’s Andy Serwer how they are standing out amid competitors in the GLP-1 space.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260814/b652e560-2365-40ad-8b19-b043248b9a80/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

AstraZeneca Says the GLP-1 Market Goes Beyond Just Weight Loss

Aradhana Sarin, chief financial officer of AstraZeneca, spoke to Barron's editor at large Andy Serwer.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260806/98e599b1-e2aa-4ebb-8324-8d90add6d77b/2/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

AstraZeneca's CFO on GLP-1 Drugs, AI, and More

Morten Wierod, CEO of ABB, discusses how the boom in data centers is increasing energy and renewable power demand despite backlash.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260728/85b6af1d-d61f-4d41-91cf-63e1e957ce36/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Fueling AI Data Center Growth With Green Energy

"The hunger to break new records is always there," Morten Wierod, CEO of ABB, tells Barron’s Andy Serwer.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260728/369d1582-3491-488b-b72d-233a798cc8bc/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

This CEO’s Approach to Operating in Top Markets

Morten Wierod, CEO of ABB, spoke to Barron's editor at large Andy Serwer. This interview was recorded June 4, 2026.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260723/08a6efaf-8ddf-45c1-915f-501a00cc0dae/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

This CEO Explains the Value of Being a Global Company

“The main job of a leader is to help their people become better,” says Farooq Kathwari, CEO of Ethan Allen Interiors.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260721/190408e8-a9f9-4910-a66c-5fcc196e482f/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Ethan Allen’s CEO on Effective Leadership Strategies

Farooq Kathwari, CEO of Ethan Allen Interiors, tells Barron’s Andy Serwer how he’s protecting the brand’s "high-end reputation" amidst the current affordability crisis and volatile housing market.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260721/673802e5-2011-4c0b-9f53-51367e9e9481/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Maintaining Ethan Allen’s Premium Product in a Weak Housing Market

At Barron's

"Your 9-5...is just not going to do it," Nick Magguilli, personal finance expert, said on Barron's Streetwise podcast.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251216/e6897805-d131-4cc4-9c59-ca03b0c0b958/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

How to Scale Your Net Worth

TJ Thornton, Head of Global Research Product Marketing at BofA Securities, talks to Jack Hough about his favorite stocks outside of AI.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251210/f9c1a95c-5a0e-4349-9fe4-73b3ac53bfb8/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

BofA’s Favorite Non-AI Stocks

Jack Hough talks to TJ Thornton, Head of Global Research Product Marketing at BofA Securities about diversifying stocks to hedge AI risks.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251210/8e164ff7-1500-4c2f-8713-e891c640a0f4/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Evaluating Investing Opportunities Beyond AI

Steve Quirk, chief brokerage officer at Robinhood, breaks down the value of tokenizing stocks in different markets.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251126/f86d65ea-bd8b-4777-b6b0-80f7bb12027e/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Unpacking Tokenization for Everyday Investors

Jack Hough talks to Steve Quirk, chief brokerage officer at Robinhood, about trends in retail investing.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251126/a9cbdcc6-f060-4fc9-a15e-396924e25946/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

How Robinhood Reshaped the Trading Landscape for an Entire Generation

Streetwise host Jack Hough sat down with strategist Scott Wren to discuss how the AI-fueled market run stacks up against the dot-com boom.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251111/bd2e1a5b-1a6e-4543-8133-dcc63f69b5dc/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

AI vs. The Dot Com Bubble

Bank of America’s Haim Israel shares what’s next for Nuclear Energy development.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20250930/ab4fc336-af44-4af2-8e40-9ae6f04a445e/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

The Outlook For Nuclear

Jack talks to Lyft CEO David Risher about growth potential in the company.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20250929/ae62b70e-912b-4ce7-ae63-1b2652628bae/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Lyft's Ride to Profit

The stock market is expensive. What does that mean for your portfolio? Jack sits down with Franklin Templeton’s Matt Quinlan to talk dividend investing, and whether it’s a good move in a pricey market.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20250911/9c85e132-d710-4458-9467-aa69d4f25ae0/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Dividends and Capital Appreciation

Barron's Streetwise

Peter Lee, a founding partner at Summit Trail Advisors, and Jon Nickow, a principal, explain why career advancement is a gradual, multi-year process.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260811/18281a11-abd5-486c-b82a-1671c66b3476/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Developing Homegrown Talent Requires Patience

Interviews with top wealth management professionals about topics including compensation, hiring, marketing, next-gen, and more.

Peter Lee, a founding partner at the firm, and Jon Nickow, a principal, discuss the RIA’s approach to developing internal talent with Greg Bartalos, editor-in-chief of Barron’s Wealth & Asset Management Group.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260804/a04e8685-9b37-45c1-90d4-fc8938ca9dff/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Summit Trail Advisors’ Strategy for Growing Talent From Within

“We want to win the talent game, and you do that by being very clear on career paths, talking to people about what's working for them, what's not, and what are they interested in?,” says Mike LaMena, the CEO of Wealthspire.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260727/a5e5c3ad-2b2b-4daf-bce3-604be5504022/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

The Importance of Career Paths and Loving What You Do

“We haven't done a great job as an industry of giving people visibility into the amazing career paths,” says Mike LaMena, the CEO of Wealthspire. “It's a passion of mine to get engaged with young people and give them visibility.”

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260710/d7a7bbd5-0b79-4e95-a4da-3b49165b14f1/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Bridging the Gap: Attracting Next-Gen Talent to Wealth Management

Mike LaMena, the CEO of Wealthspire, says “If I can acquire a business, I'm bringing people into our culture and saying, ‘How can you have the maximum impact within a broader organization? What's your highest and best use?’”

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260710/ccb7a1d4-b16a-422b-8d03-ff7fdba13a17/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

‘M&A for Us Is Talent Acquisition’

“The winning firms aren't just about size and large numbers,” says Mike LaMena, the CEO of Wealthspire. “It's going to be the really integrated firms that have a cohesive, consistent delivery to the end client.”

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260707/d028f0f9-416b-4c28-a013-c91388459c9e/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Integrated Models Drive Premium RIA Valuations

Having scale helps firms reinvest in the people, processes, and technology necessary to deliver superior client outcomes, Mike LaMena, the CEO of Wealthspire, tells Greg Bartalos, Editor-in-Chief of Barron’s Wealth & Asset Management Group.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260623/a82b8dbb-7bdd-405d-98b1-1d46d9002990/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Beyond AUM: The True Value of Scale for Advisory Firms

RIAs that are looking to sell should start the process early, and ideally when the business is thriving, to maximize leverage and options, says Shirl Penney, the CEO of Dynasty Financial Partners.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260526/d766a2a1-3884-4be6-9190-7a76f5d09f0e/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

‘The Best Time to Sell Is When You Don't Have to.’

“Begin with the end in mind and be really clear about what it is that you want and what it is that you don't,” Shirl Penney, the CEO of Dynasty Financial Partners, tells Greg Bartalos, Editor-in-Chief of Barron’s Wealth & Asset Management Group.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260526/6306bad1-ec7d-4a82-a855-871a2a8af24a/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

RIA Sellers Need to Be Specific About Their Goals 

Barron's Advisor The Way Forward

A “willingness to roll up your sleeves and understand the issues that your clients are facing, not just from an investment perspective,” is common among the industry’s most successful, says Kelly Gaur, a Mercer Advisors regional vice president.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260319/318adb2f-a888-4f30-b182-c791e27f98ab/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Best Advice for Someone Considering Wealth Management as a Career

Kelly Gaur, a Mercer Advisors regional vice president, says she was drawn to working for a registered investment advisor partly because they generally offer a more personalized, modern approach to wealth management.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260318/5575e9ca-0b48-4fb9-8e43-82aae1b3e3fc/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

The Appeal of Working for an RIA

“The best client development professionals are those who have served clients in some capacity,” says Kelly Gaur, a Mercer Advisors regional vice president.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260318/c1638929-6b21-4573-9deb-4f78e1ffa1d7/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Client-Facing Experience Can Help Advance Your Career

The Mercer Advisors regional vice president discusses her business development role and tips for breaking into the industry and gaining valuable experience in a non-advisory capacity.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260318/f2c2c9a5-cb67-4167-a48b-7fe4a9285615/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Kelly Gaur: Tips for Pursuing Non-Advisor Roles in Wealth Management

“You want to make sure that everybody's excited and prepared and that you're all pulling the rope in the same direction,” says Nate Fisher, managing director and wealth advisor at Carson Wealth.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260305/20285ef5-c115-435f-9291-e4f2d5b166a9/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

A Successful Transition Requires Honesty and a ‘Heavy Lift’

Young advisors considering a succession plan should maximize engagement with clients because “it can take a long time to gain that trust and build those relationships,” says Nate Fisher, managing director and wealth advisor at Carson Wealth.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260305/236fdaa2-5acb-48e9-b16d-e20b58846487/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Succession Planning and Establishing Trust With Clients

The Carson Wealth managing director and wealth advisor says his decision to partner with the firm was driven by the need for increased capacity for holistic services and a clear succession plan for his retiring father.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260305/33bb1217-c8be-4358-ba17-6238cbab6fa1/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Nate Fisher: Lessons Learned From a Successful Partnership

As trust grows, advisors tend to spend less time discussing investments and more time on clients’ families and well-being, says Nate Fisher, managing director and wealth advisor at Carson Wealth.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260305/d2d3903a-994f-4ae7-82be-706929930b3d/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Trusted Advisors Focus Less on Investments, More on Clients' Lives 

Serving tech founders is a full-time, long-term effort that often requires significant upfront work before a successful, revenue-generating relationship is established, says Katie Partridge, a Morgan Stanley private wealth advisor.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260219/abc63bad-4c7a-474b-b4a8-b4feae461375/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Landing Founders as Clients Requires Patience and Hard Work

Barron's Advisor Next Generation

Government policy shapes retirement regardless of savings or lifespan. With Social Security's trust fund facing a 2033 shortfall, what fixes are coming? Our experts discuss policy shifts and how to budget your benefits.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260410/aea80278-298b-458e-8bcd-f378796d6328/2/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

What's Next for Social Security?

Stocks swoop and soar as investors weigh AI hype against rate-cut "tea leaves." Our panelists explain how to drown out the noise, chart your own winning path,and identify investments that offer true long-term rewards.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260410/586aecf7-117b-4f3e-86f0-6869d907e671/2/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Riding the Market Roller Coaster

The capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and Middle East tensions are reshaping oil supply expectations. The U.S. is intervening in energy markets in decades-unseen ways. Experts break down what’s next for oil, gas and energy stocks.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260212/9779ec13-602a-4a38-bb73-495ff464a24f/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Oil and Gas in a Volatile World

For the first time in decades, U.S. power demand is rising - driven by AI data centers, EVs and electrification. Utility and clean-energy stocks are climbing, but costly buildouts threaten affordability. We explore what’s next for the power trade.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260212/81a81fdd-47b4-44f6-93d1-7597a7fab032/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

The Gold Rush in Electricity

Will Nvidia and other technology companies keep powering the stock market in 2026? We'll speak with two veteran money managers about their views on tech and their favorite stocks for the coming year.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251212/5683d7a0-ed1f-4e3c-b913-bb3367ea3abd/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Finding Bargains in a Pricey Market

Explore what could go right for investors, and what could go wrong, in a year that will see the AI trade evolve, the Fed's leadership change, and global competition for resources increase in this 2026 Outlook.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251212/573f5954-c4ab-43e9-804d-f1ea93fbb70c/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Meeting the Challenge

Stocks are expensive, risks abound, and AI is about to change the world. Other than that, building a calamity-proof retirement portfolio should be a cinch. Tune in as two veteran money managers size up the markets and share their investment ideas.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20250211/17a5e7d6-7c36-44b0-a35e-bf5ac3a24194/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Saving for a Sunny Day

Research shows that people greatly underestimate the healthcare costs they’ll face in retirement. Learn from experts how to estimate those costs, prepare for potential long-term care needs, and manage healthcare expenses in retirement.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20250211/e7c022d9-badf-4e95-8e7c-0b6fce9f7823/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Are You Fiscally Fit?

Surging power demand, new energy sources, and growing competition have spurred the utility industry to become more innovative than ever before. Our panelists will unpack the changes afoot and explore what lies ahead for companies, customers, and investors.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20240917/001ea098-1fcc-4da5-9f0e-a3b149bbb2fb/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Not Your Father's Utility

Barron's Roundtable

Whether you're leading a transition, building a scalable team, or just trying to stay ahead of the curve, this episode will give you practical insights to lead smarter and grow stronger.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251010/fd26d60b-d1e6-409b-b51b-101da4aaa368/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Next-Gen Leadership Meets Smart Innovation

Electric vehicles sales are growing but not at the pace some expected. Some would-be buyers worry about the range of EV charging, and others are swayed by politics. But innovators from Detroit to Silicon Valley still envision a dramatic shift in how we get around. What’s going on and what’s next?

https://m.wsj.net/video/20240603/5784fa60-791c-47ad-9740-42e4553de5c4/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Forces Shaping EV Adoption and the Future of Driving

Success in improving the power grid to accommodate the electricity demands of the future will be a boon for companies doing the work and utilities that succeed. Explore the investing risks and opportunities.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20240522/2b825c69-2687-4d88-923b-0c8f523a2f67/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

How to Invest in Initiatives to Bolster the Power Grid

Joanna Rotenberg, Fidelity's president of personal investing, discusses ways to make investing more accessible and how to bolster your own financial security.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20231025/8ad733df-ac90-41fd-9655-7761b3e0532c/2/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Mind the Gap: Demystifying Investing

Reshma Kapadia sits down with Cozy Wittman of College Inside Track to discuss how to tackle all things college, from what admission officers are seeking today, to navigating the different ways to funding higher education and evaluating the ROIs.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20230515/b7229011-05cc-42ec-9c16-1d7752ec668d/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Decoding the College Search and Financing Puzzle

Nicole Webb, financial advisor and SVP at Wealth Enhancement Group, shares ways to navigate the real estate market this spring whether you are a first-time buyer, a retiree downsizing or someone who is relocating or looking for a second home.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20230424/93eb00e1-caf0-4e83-9fc7-b502a57dc546/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Pro Tips on Buying and Selling a Home

Reggie Fils-Aimé, former president and COO of Nintendo of America, joins Barron's deputy editor Alex Eule to discuss his unlikely rise to the top, and the risks he took once there to beat the odds and achieve success.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20220630/61e2296d-ab1a-4216-ae65-24676447c616/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

How Nintendo's Former President Disrupted the Gaming Industry

2050 Wealth Planners co-CEO Lazetta Rainey Braxton, Sequoia Financial Planners vice president Elizabeth Scheiderer, and MoneyZen founder Manisha Thakor offer tips on how to prepare for recession, inflation, caregiving needs.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20220617/a71025ce-518b-49b9-b098-21417863f8ce/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Financial Advice for the Inflation-Weary

Families and advisors have a lot to navigate when it comes to generational wealth transfer. Add sustainable investing to the list. Examine strategies to help close the generational divide. From the Dow Jones Energy & Sustainability event series.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20230210/85cbf3f9-b5ab-4bfa-93c6-f8e8a247d386/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Sustainable Investing and the Wealth Transfer

Barron's Events

Level Up

Barron's Explains

Back to Business

Great Investors

MarketWatch

Video Center - Barron's home

Donald Trump reinstates his naval blockade of Iran and pledges to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, with or without its help. Yet his initial talk of charging a 20% toll confused his message, and if oil prices rise will he make his case to voters? Photo: Christopher Arbisi

https://m.wsj.net/video/20260714/081c1362-25ca-44f8-91db-23e87e9de430/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Donald Trump reinstates his naval blockade of Iran and pledges to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, with or without its help. Yet his initial talk of charging a 20% toll confused his message, and if oil prices rise will he make his case to voters?

WSJ Opinion: Trump Blockades Iran Again, While Saying the U.S. Will Guard Hormuz 

President Trump reimposes the U.S. naval blockade of Iran while declaring that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all other traffic as the so-called Memorandum of Understanding negotiated by Vice President JD Vance continues to collapse.

From the Opinion pages of the "Wall Street Journal," this is "Potomac Watch."

Welcome, I'm Kyle Peterson with the "Wall Street Journal." We're joined today by my colleague on the WSJ's Opinion pages, Elliot Kaufman. The Hormuz Strait is open and will remain open with or without Iran. That was the message from President Trump on Truth Social on Monday. He added, "We are reinstating the Iranian blockade, so named because it is only stopping Iran ships or customers from entering or leaving." U.S. Central Command is now saying that during the two months that the initial blockade was in effect, CENTCOM forces redirected more than 140 compliant vessels, disabled nine non-compliant ships, and allowed over 50 commercial vessels supporting humanitarian aid to pass through. The resumption of the blockade is now supposed to begin at about 4:00 PM Eastern Time today. Here is President Trump in the White House today.

I gave them a chance. I wanted to give them a chance at making a deal. You know, we had a deal two days ago. It was done. And then all of a sudden they couldn't do it. They didn't like something about the deal. They couldn't do it. And they shot first and that was a big mistake that they shot first because we have been knocking the hell out of them. They're very difficult people. 47 years we put up with it. You go back all the way, thousands of people, thousands of Americans were killed, a lot of soldiers were killed. A lot of soldiers are walking around or not walking around. I mean, they've been so badly injured. What we've done to Iran is we've taken away almost all of their military capability.

Elliot, what do you make of this turn by the president? If plan A was diplomacy, the Memorandum of Understanding, this is plan B, it appears.

I think President Trump clearly wanted a deal and he threw at Iran's regime a whole lot of money, a whole lot of sanctions relief. And all they had to do was go along with the easy part of the deal, which was both sides end their blockades. Iran no longer stops commercial shipping from transiting the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. allows Iranian ships in and out as well. The U.S. ended its blockade, but Iran kept on shooting every few days at commercial vessels, one or two traveling through, as part of what became clear as an effort to conquer the strait, change all the rules in the strait, and really eliminate freedom of navigation there. And so if Iran wasn't abiding by the easiest part of the deal, let alone the hard part, the nuclear matters, I think it was only a matter of time before President Trump said, "Well, then our blockade is back on as well."

But do you suppose that Iran will be back asking for another deal? That seems to be the way that they've approached these situations in the past. Or do you sense maybe some hardening of President Trump's position here, that fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me? And it also comes in the context of some remarkable reporting about President Trump's recent trip to that NATO summit in Turkey and specifically his return. So this is from a piece of the "Wall Street Journal" story on it. A lack of defensive capabilities aboard President Trump's new luxury jet led him to fly home from Turkey aboard an older Air Force One plane this week after U.S. officials received Israeli intelligence about a possible plot to kill him, according to U.S. officials. He has also mused about this occasionally in public, including with reporters, saying that he's number one on the Iranian kill list. All of that suggests to me that maybe President Trump will be less willing now to give diplomacy another shot.

We don't know how actionable that specific assassination threat was, but Iran's regime hasn't exactly been hiding their intentions here. I mean, Iranian newspapers, state-run, are publishing assassination threats. Iran's Assembly of Experts, which selects the supreme leader, reiterated a religious assassination threat, saying it is religiously mandated, at the funeral for the late supreme leader. Carefully staged posters, billboards, murals, calling for President Trump's assassination. They are saying this loud and clear and I think President Trump hears it. Now, has he hardened? He seems to have gotten a taste, if he hadn't already, of what dealing with this Iranian regime is like. He says it. They lie, they cheat, they're sick people. He loves saying that now. He wasn't necessarily saying that at the start of these talks. He was saying they are more rational now. They are less radicalized now. I think he's been disabused of some of that. At the same time, he is keeping diplomatic options open, allowing talks to continue. But I think the big difference now is that they'll continue while Iran is under a blockade and possibly under fire.

And the point of the blockade is to impose economic pain on the regime. The Iranian response seems to be, their hope seems to have been that the U.S. public would get so tired of high energy prices, high oil prices, high gas prices, particularly as we get toward the midterm elections in November, that President Trump would cry uncle. Just to check in on the gas prices, this is a national average from AAA. It says that today it's about $3.86 per gallon, down slightly from a month ago, that was about $4.07 a gallon. But up from a year ago, that was $3.15 a gallon, and people feel that in their pocketbooks. Elliot, do you have a view on how that new blockade might affect these questions about the oil supply, the energy supply? Or does it somewhat depend on whether, if the U.S. is blockading the Iranian supplies, it is able to force open the strait for oil and natural gas coming out of other countries, not Iran?

Exactly right. Iranian oil was already sanctioned before this war and some of it was getting out and it was going to China, but really nowhere else. What matters far more is all the rest of the Gulf's oil and gas. And that is what Iran has been trying to limit. I think we can expect now Iran to step up its attacks on that shipping. And so all eyes turn to the U.S. Navy right now. Can it continue getting a few dozen or more commercial vessels, tankers, out of the strait every single day? That is the real question. Already we've seen the price of oil rise from, you know, $70 to the high 70s. I expect that to keep rising, but the U.S. has some room here. We're not at 90, 100, 110, 120 price of oil. And if the Navy can help guide or even escort commercial vessels and tankers out of the strait, it can keep this under control.

And in the meantime, it seems to me it is incumbent on the president and the Trump administration to make the case to voters that this is a worthwhile endeavor. I think that has been a... I think they have struggled to do that since the beginning of this war. And I think the American people are willing to make sacrifices in the national interest if they can understand what that national interest is. And President Trump, for example, on Thursday has said that he's now going to be planning a primetime address to the nation. That seems to me that could be a moment for him to say, "Listen, this is a regime that has been killing Americans and been at war with the United States for decades. And I am the first president who has stood up to do something about it in this way. And we need to finish the job." I mean, that speech almost writes itself to some extent, particularly after the failure of this Memorandum of Understanding and the fact that Iran was still shooting at commercial ships in an international waterway, the Strait of Hormuz. And yet we have reporting now today that President Trump is planning this Thursday address to go through, you know, new government files arguing that there's election interference and vulnerabilities. It's another example of, and who knows, that could change between now and Thursday. They could rewrite what he's going to say to the nation on Thursday afternoon, Thursday evening. But it seems like there have been places where the Trump administration and the president have had opportunities to, in a discrete way, make the case for what they are doing in Iran. And they keep being distracted by other things.

That's right, and that case hasn't been made in a sustained way. You know, it's been one-off. You would have a good speech from Marco Rubio about Iran's missile program, but then we wouldn't hear about that again. President Trump gave a good speech in the middle of the night on day one, explaining the history of the situation and what is needed now. But then we didn't hear much about that afterward. Instead, what we had was President Trump speaking to markets, typically on a Friday, on a Monday, trying to handle markets for the week and then see what he could get away with over the weekend. And he was remarkably successful at that, but only on a very short-term basis, handling prices from day-to-day, weekend to weekday. And I think what happened long-term is that Iran saw President Trump was really constrained by markets, by the price of oil, and wasn't willing to absorb the costs over weeks and months of this. And so even if it might've worked short-term, I think it held him back long-term. If he wants to really finish this job, I think he needs to make that case not just to markets, but to American voters and tell them what finishing the job actually means here. I think that focuses on the strait, but I want to hear it from him.

To that point, we also have this distraction over the idea from President Trump to charge a reimbursement rate for all the commerce that is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. This was part of his Truth Social post as well on Monday when he said that the U.S. blockade on Iran would be reinstated. Here it is. "The U.S.A will be from this point forward known as the guardian of the Hormuz Strait, but as such, and as a matter of fairness, will be reimbursed at a rate of 20% on all cargo shipped for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this volatile section of the world," unquote. Elliot, the White House, President Trump have now backed off on that, saying that, you know, instead there's going to be investment coming into the United States. To my mind, that looks like a way to back off this bad idea without acknowledging that it was a bad idea. But what's your read of this as another Trumpian controversy getting in the way of the message that the president, to my mind, ought to be sending about what he is doing in Iran and why?

Yeah, I think that the most important part of that statement came first, actually. President Trump saying the U.S. will be the guardian of the strait, committing American prestige to getting ships through there. We spent the length of the war mostly ignoring the matter of the strait. Then we thought we could solve it with a ceasefire in April. Iran reneged. Then we thought we could solve it with the Memorandum of Understanding in June. Iran has more or less reneged on that. President Trump is saying, "We're going to solve it now. We're going to guard it." That to my mind is the core message here. But when you say that you're going to add a 20% toll, what amounts to $15 per barrel of oil, extra toll, far larger than what even Iran was going to do, that's all anybody sees, that's all anybody talks about with that statement. And so I'm not surprised that he walked it back. It isn't a good idea for freedom of navigation, for the price of oil, for just about anything else. And instead, he's finding other ways for Gulf states, which really need our help here, to compensate us, support us. He says they will make investments in the U.S.. In fact, they've already committed to those investments in the past. It's just, most people think they weren't actually going to make good on the commitments. Maybe now they will, or maybe they still won't. It sounds like face-saving to me, and I really hope we can move past it and focus on the strait itself.

What about the future of the Republican Party, given that JD Vance was one of the lead negotiators of this Memorandum of Understanding, was out there in public making the argument that this is an opportunity for the leaders in Tehran to turn over a new leaf? Do you think that there has been any change in views? Do you think that this is a blow to his potential political ambitions after President Trump? Or do you think that there has been any new understanding of what kind of men they are facing across the negotiating table that is filtering now into the vice president's team?

Well, I know that Vice President Vance is not coming out of this looking good. I mean, he went out on just about every American television platform there is and assured the American people that Iran's regime, something has transformed. Their new leaders, even the IRGC, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hardliners, are now ready to turn over a new leaf with the U.S., have a new relationship with the U.S. after all of these years. He said it based on what was promised to him, he said, in back channel conversations. And while none of those promises made it into the deal on paper, he said, "Don't worry, they told me." And it turns out it really looks like they played him. And everybody can see that now. Vice President Vance also said if it wasn't true, if they weren't ready to change their ways, Iran would get nothing. It would be given absolutely nothing. But we've already seen billions of dollars worth of oil exports make it out of the strait on its way to buyers. So I don't think he can say that either. One other point though, I think much of this for him hinges on how President Trump feels about this deal, about how it all went down. Because President Trump could say, "Listen, the deal bought us lower oil prices. It brought them way down from 100 to 70 and got us breathing room to test out how Iran's regime would actually play this." Now, the regime has clearly failed that test and we have to see if the vice president and his team can adapt to that and change its thinking, or are they still, there's only one option, make the deal and just settle for Iranian cheating.

Part of the context here is that many of the people in the Tucker wing of the Republican Party, let's say, I think have overread their views onto President Trump when he is less of an isolationist and more willing to use U.S. power abroad than they imagined he would be when they were supporting him again in 2024. The flip side of that coin, what about Secretary of State Marco Rubio? Where has he been on these questions? I mean, he receded to the background a bit while Vice President JD Vance was out there pitching the Memorandum of Understanding. Does he come out of this looking like he has a more firm grasp on the reality of this foreign policy question than the vice president did?

Well, I would say Secretary Rubio receded a lot when the deal was being talked about. He was nowhere to be seen. And while Vice President Vance was making extravagant claims, extravagant promises about it, I think Secretary Rubio wisely kept his silence on that. A few comments here and there when he had to, but he did not invest his own personal prestige in this deal. He also didn't negotiate the deal as Vice President Vance did. Now, Secretary Rubio was speaking much louder about the justifications for the war itself. And so how does this end up looking for him? I think it matters greatly how we think about this war a month from now, six months from now, a year from now. Many people have been saying Iran won. If they still think that a year from now, Secretary Rubio does not benefit from that. But if circumstances change dramatically in the Strait of Hormuz, which is where Iran planted its flag, I think Secretary Rubio comes out looking like he has much sounder judgment.

But it seems to me, and I don't know if you have a different view, the sense I get from President Trump and his tone lately is that he wants to ensure now that those critics cannot say that Iran was the winner, which many were when he initially announced this Memorandum of Understanding. Now, Iran has been the party that has ripped that up. We will have to see how the U.S. Navy does enforcing open the strait. I assume they can do a competent job as they did with the blockade in those past two months of closing the strait to Iranian vessels. But any other sense of where this might be heading? I mean, I know we've talked about it in the past, options President Trump might be considering, including taking Kharg Island. I don't know if that might still be on the table, or are we just waiting here now for the blockade to begin and President Trump to make his next move on the chessboard?

I think President Trump still wants a deal. He still thinks he can get what he wants, but the problem was the Memorandum of Understanding gave up all of his leverage in advance. Iran thought you're never going back to war. You probably never will go back to the blockade either. And so we don't even have to talk nuclear. Instead Iran tried to take over the Strait of Hormuz. And so President Trump right now is trying to take back the leverage that he gave up, but also take some of Iran's leverage. Because if Iran cannot stop commercial vessels and tankers from getting out, from getting all of that oil out to market, it doesn't have a leg to stand on in negotiations. And so I think that's still his goal. And he thinks he can win this and get the answers he wants on the nuclear file by using pressure instead of by giving pressure up.

Thank you, Elliot. Thank you all for listening. You can email us at pwpodcast@wsj.com. If you like the show, please hit that subscribe button and we'll be back tomorrow with another edition of "Potomac Watch."

Political videos providing critical perspective and analysis that goes beyond the “what” of Donald Trump’s Washington, and also explains the “why.”