Name: How Tensions With China Threaten the Tech Sector
Uploaded: 2023-10-10T18:42:00Z
Duration: 7 min 30 s
Description: At this year's CIO Summit, U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commissioner Jacob Helberg spoke with the WSJ's Christopher Mims about the relationship between China and the U.S. They talked about how a significant amount of the world's technology hardware is built in China. Photo: Florence Lo/Reuters

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At this year's CIO Summit, U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commissioner Jacob Helberg spoke with the WSJ's Christopher Mims about the relationship between China and the U.S. They talked about how a significant amount of the world's technology hardware is built in China. Photo: Florence Lo/Reuters

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How Tensions With China Threaten the Tech Sector

Zoe: Welcome to "Tech News Briefing." It's Tuesday, October 10th. I'm Zoe Thomas for The Wall Street Journal. China is a country where a significant amount of the world's technology hardware is built, including for U.S.-based companies. But a potential decoupling, or split, between the U.S. and Chinese economies is threatening to upend supply chains and customer bases. Jacob Helberg, a member of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, says there's even a real possibility of war, one that could pull in and shake up the global tech sector. At The WSJ's CIO Summit, Helberg sat down with our tech columnist, Christopher Mims, to discuss these issues. Here are highlights from their conversation.

So there's a lot of animosity. There's escalating tensions. But the U.S. and China are still, especially in terms of tech, very interdependent. When you think about like how does one build an iPhone without China, for example? I mean, it raises the issue of, does the U.S. do it on its own? Like does decoupling mean deglobalization?

I think what you're seeing overwhelmingly is that the answer's no. You saw this with the Biden administration hosting the Trilateral Summit with South Korea and Japan. You see this with the deepening of America's relationship with the UK and Australia through AUKUS. There's a lot of efforts going on in the administration as well as through Congress to actually deepen relationships with a lot of other countries, including India, which is a very large, fast-growing market. The issue is that China poses unique political and geopolitical risks to the United States, and so you're seeing a lot of, in my view, justified concerns by policymakers and an enormous impetus to recalibrate that relationship.

Now, the government can only do so much of that on its own. What are businesses doing? Are they responding by attempting to decouple, or are most of them sort of proceeding business as usual?

I think a lot of business people are actually very savvy and they're seeing the direction of travel. They're seeing that in Washington, we're headed towards a climate where you're gonna see more regulation, more scrutiny on anything that involves transactions with China. But you're also seeing a business climate in China that's becoming really, really difficult to operate in.

Let's talk about the elephant in the room, which is that so much of what's driving this talk of decoupling is China's, seems, very credible threat to retake Taiwan where the overwhelming majority of the world's most advanced microprocessors, including for Apple and all the custom chips now that are powering a lot of the AI revolution, are all manufactured. I feel like when I talk to business people, there's a disconnect between their feeling about the odds of that and how the national security types that I talk to feel about it.

Yeah, so interestingly in the U.S., we've kind of seen a tale of two cities between Washington and our other economic hubs around the country. Where you're right that national security people in Washington actually see probably a more than 50% chance of a hot conflict with China breakout potentially in the next five years. Xi Jinping said that he wants to reunify Taiwan by 2027, which a lot of people think really means 2025. And the United States is the main country that stands in his way with a smooth re-annexation of Taiwan. And so obviously this is a potentially cataclysmic event, and our business community has been very, very slow to catch onto this reality. And to your point, ultimately if this happens, if decoupling happens to you, it's gonna be really painful and it's probably gonna mean that you're gonna see billions of dollars in assets get frozen or nationalized overnight.

What happens to the kind of companies that we've been talking about at this conference on day one of that conflict? Like, does Tim Cook just call up Samsung and be like, "I need to move 100% of my production "of cutting-edge A whatever chips "to your fabs in South Korea," and you're gonna start air freighting them the other way around the world?

You're right that it would have significant impacts on large trillion-dollar companies like Apple. And what you would probably see very quickly is China cut off its supply chains to large American companies like Apple. It would probably attempt its domestic companies like Huawei and Xiaomi to fill the void in global demand for cell phones with its domestic companies to try to use that window to gain market share and basically try to decimate American companies.

So economic warfare as well?

Economic warfare. During World War II, there was this concept called total warfare, which is war on all fronts, financial, military, and so forth. It would very much be that way in a war with China except the aperture of war would be so vast just because our technology today is just so expansive and reaches into so many parts of our life.

So just to step back for that brink for a moment, I mean, that's an outcome that sounds so catastrophic that I think the sort of logical fatalist in any of us is like, "Well, what do we all need to be doing to prepare?"

Well, it's especially cataclysmic if you're a hardware company that relies on supply chains in China, or if you're a fund that has billions of dollars in investments tied up in illiquid assets in China. It's really not that cataclysmic if you have already started reshoring operations, whether it's in Vietnam or in India.

But to be clear, it's a really big world out there, but the rest of the world doesn't have the supply chains, the materials, the expertise, all of that institutional knowledge that China now in some ways has sole possession of.

Well, it didn't 20 years ago. So it wasn't always this way. I mean, the iMac was made in Elk Grove, California up until the early 2000's. So when we think about, "Oh gee, it would be so impossible "to make these phones elsewhere," it really wasn't that long ago that the the map looks very, very different.

Zoe: That was Jacob Helberg, a member of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission speaking with The WSJ's tech columnist, Christopher Mims. And that's it for "Tech News Briefing." Today's show was produced by Julie Chang with supervising producer Melony Roy. I'm Zoe Thomas for The Wall Street Journal. We'll be back tomorrow. Thanks for listening.

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