Name: Vinod Khosla Says He's Surprised by Silicon Valley's Embrace of Trump
Uploaded: 2026-07-10T15:50:00Z
Duration: 7 min 20 s
Description: How much of life boils down to skill versus good fortune? Billionaire venture capitalist Vinod Khosla says achieving the American Dream is mostly luck and surviving a tech bubble is the ultimate test of skill. Watch him explain why.

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How much of life boils down to skill versus good fortune? Billionaire venture capitalist Vinod Khosla says achieving the American Dream is mostly luck and surviving a tech bubble is the ultimate test of skill. Watch him explain why. Photo: Sean Havey

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How much of life boils down to skill versus good fortune? Billionaire venture capitalist Vinod Khosla says achieving the American Dream is mostly luck and surviving a tech bubble is the ultimate test of skill. Watch him explain why.

Vinod Khosla Says He's Surprised by Silicon Valley's Embrace of Trump

We're gonna play a really quick game of luck versus skill.

Achieving the American Dream is really mostly about luck.

100% luck?

Opportunity meets preparation is the right answer. I don't know how you want to interpret it as skill or luck, but there's a huge element of luck. I think I've been incredibly lucky.

A recent "Wall Street Journal" report showed that the number of Americans who believe in the American Dream has fallen to a record low. What do you say to those people?

Well, the American Dream isn't possible if you don't have agency, if you don't try and mold the world to your view, and most people give up and then give up this notion of the American Dream. But even if you have agency, even if you're working 80 hours a week, you might not be successful, and that's true.

Winning a feud on social media.

It's all about skill, all about skill.

You've been in quite a few of those.

Yes.

Including one with Elon Musk.

Well, my proudest is when I called Elon to the mat and asked him if the election was legal or not, and he agreed with me that the election was a proper election, legal election, and Trump lost. He may not say that today because it would upset Trump, but in fact, I'm proud of that.

So since we are on the topic of politics, in 2016, you signed a letter with other tech entrepreneurs warning that Trump would be disastrous for innovation. Since then, we have seen a boom in AI spending. Were you wrong about Trump?

Trump has had nothing to do with innovation. His view of the economy is big companies. Everything is about money, and so I think Trump has a very traditional view of business. Having less regulation for traditional business, he's done a good job. The innovation economy, I think is driving its own agenda.

Have you been surprised to see people in this neighborhood, in Silicon Valley, embrace Trump the way they have?

I've been surprised but a lot of it is embracing for convenience, not embracing because they have their own values and stick with them. So I do think it's sad how values have declined in service of Trump.

Should people vote with their morals or their wallets?

I hope people vote for their values, but that's not what has been happening.

Your net worth has soared since 2016 when Trump was first elected.

Trump is good for me financially, but frankly, I think Trump has very little to do with that. Turning a no into a yes, it's a lot of skill.

Okay.

I always tell entrepreneurs a no is a maybe and a maybe is a yes. It just takes a lot of persistence.

How do you keep being persistent without being annoying?

Most people, especially in Silicon Valley, respond to logical arguments. Even if they don't initially tell you why they made a decision that was a no, they say they prefer another job, they're not going to accept your offer, but it may be their wife is saying, "I like a safer, bigger company job." Then you have to talk to their wife or husband, convince the other party in their decision.

Okay, okay. Go to the family members.

I've done all of those things. A stellar performance review is generally about skill.

So you have said you prefer being candid with people rather than hypocritical politeness, as you call it.

It's generally not well received initially, but if you get known for that, then it's more appreciated. And I think it increases the level of trust people have in what you're saying. If they don't like it, it's their problem, not mine. The honest fact is I've never actually gotten a performance review because I've never actually worked for anybody in my whole life. So I've never had a performance review. Surviving a tech bubble, I think it's mostly about smarts. It's mostly about knowing when you're in a bubble and acknowledging it'll burst and not knowing when it will or will not.

People have been saying we're in a bubble right now, right, for years.

Yeah. If you're saying, will stock prices crash for AI companies? That's not only possible, it's likely. I'm not saying they won't go up further before they come down. I don't know the timing. Is there a bubble in the use of AI? The answer is absolutely not. I measure it by the number of calls, what are called API calls or uses of the model. The use of the model, which is the reality of AI will keep going up and up and up. Now, when the dotcom bubble happened, which most people remember, if you looked at stock prices, they went up, they went down, then they went up again. If you look at internet traffic, which was the use of the internet, there was no bubble. It didn't change. There was no dip. So if you design a bubble as the utility of the internet or the utility of AI, there is absolutely no bubble. If you look at stock prices, it's a perception thing between fear and greed of investors. I don't really care whether there's a bubble or not. I don't care whether investors suddenly get greedy or suddenly get fearful. They both are human emotions that'll happen, but they're not relevant to will AI develop. The definition of a bubble is important to get right. A strong network, it clearly makes the difference.

Luck or skill?

Mostly skill. I hate networking. I don't build a lot of networks. I do my thing-

You just said it's very important.

It is very important. And if you're a young person, your network will matter. If you go to Stanford, you'll have a valuable network. If you go to Harvard, what's the advantage? You have a great network. So you get an advantage in life if you start with the right network. In fact, that may be the bigger advantage of a place like Harvard, not the education you get. I don't enjoy building a network. I've built my time doing what I enjoy. Everything else is a derivative of those things. So I care more about enjoying what I do. I never want to retire. I hope 25 years from now, I'm doing the same thing. Like Warren Buffet sort of retired at 95, that's my role model currently. I always tell entrepreneurs, if there's 10 things that make a company or a startup successful, you control three or four. Your competitors control three or four, and just pure luck will control three or four. You can do all the right things and still fail. You can do the wrong things and still succeed. Your goal is to survive long enough to get lucky.