Name: Assad Is Out, Rebels Are In: What’s Next for Syria and the Middle East
Uploaded: 2024-12-11T05:01:00Z
Duration: 7 min 2 s
Description: It took just over a week for the 54-year Assad regime to fall in Syria and the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel group to take control. WSJ breaks down how it happened—and what comes next for Syria and the Middle East.

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It took just over a week for the 54-year Assad regime to fall in Syria and the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel group to take control. WSJ breaks down how it happened—and what comes next for Syria and the Middle East. Illustration: Madeline Marshall

https://m.wsj.net/video/20241211/c73df5fc-a399-4bae-99d7-30fa26656c53/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

It took just over a week for the 54-year Assad regime to fall in Syria and the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel group to take control. WSJ breaks down how it happened—and what comes next for Syria and the Middle East.

Assad Is Out, Rebels Are In: What’s Next for Syria and the Middle East 

Narrator: The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad just over a week. It's the end of a 54 year long regime in Syria, but it's just the beginning of a re-shifting of power, not just in Syria, but in the whole region.

Right now, most Syrians are in a state of euphoria that there is an end to this brutal repression, corruption, exploitation, but what lies ahead is certainly very uncertain for many Syrians.

Narrator: Here's how Syria got to this point and what might happen next with a group the US designates as a terrorist organization now in charge. The civil war against Assad began during the Arab spring in 2011, where countries throughout the Middle East saw uprisings and revolutions against authoritarian regimes. Syria was no exception.

The Assad regime's immediate response was brute force, even torturing children that had written graffiti on a wall. And this kind of deep humiliation really angered the entire population. And you saw protests just spontaneously rise up throughout the country. And the regime unfortunately doubled down on that brute force. And so, eventually, you saw many of those protestors form their own armed groups to defend their communities.

Narrator: Rebels even captured the largest city at the time, Aleppo. It took four years, but Assad eventually recaptured it using chemical weapons against his own people, and largely because of the backing and direct military support of Iran and Russia.

Syria has actually historic ties to Russia, but I think what Putin saw during the war is an opening to become a great power. The Iranians, on the other hand, have long had an alliance with the Assad regime. It's an essential element of the so-called Shia Crescent in which Tehran wants access through Iraq, Syria, and into Lebanon and the Mediterranean through its proxy militias in Iraq, and of course, in Lebanon with Hezbollah. Assad was a key to that route.

Narrator: Over the last 13 years, dozens of groups fought against the Assad regime and each other, but today, there are three main ones who hold territory within Syria. There's the Syrian National Army or SNA.

Which is basically a hodgepodge of different rebel groups that had fought the regime all over Syria, but had been displaced to northern Syria in recent years. And they have become this somewhat undisciplined army that is backed by Turkey and unfortunately often has to do Onkur's bidding for that reason rather than face off with the regime.

Narrator: Then there's the Syrian Democratic Forces, another hodgepodge of rebel groups of primarily Kurdish fighters, an ethnic minority. They're backed by the US and often clash with the Turkish backed SNA.

And quite critically, they guard the prisons in the Northeast that have ISIS fighters in them. So they're a really critical component to stability as well.

Narrator: And then there's the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS. This is who ultimately led the offensive to capture Damascus. They were originally established as an Al-Qaeda affiliate, led by a man who later led ISIS. They broke ties with Al-Qaeda in 2016, but are still considered a terrorist organization by the US, Turkey and others.

It was in firm control of Idlib city and much of the province beforehand and had ruled that area with an iron fist. But it is one of the more disciplined and independent armed groups in Syria.

Narrator: In late November, HTS advanced from Itlib to Aleppo, which they seized in just a few days, with not just military and violence, but governance.

They immediately went into Aleppo and they tried to prevent looting, protect government institutions. They told former soldiers and government employees to stay in their posts as long as they renounced any kind of, you know, allegiance to Assad. They went around and tried to reassure minorities that they would not be harmed.

Narrator: Assad and Russian forces launched airstrikes in Aleppo and Idlib. At least 12 civilians were killed, but it didn't slow HTS who quickly took Hama, Homs, and eventually moved onto the capitol, Damascus. Assad fled to Russia and Syrians celebrated across the country and across the world.

I think what was most shocking is the abandonment of Assad by his stalwart allies, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in particular.

Narrator: Experts believe these allies were too entangled in their own conflicts with Israel and Ukraine to have been much help to Assad.

To see the the Russians abandon Assad in the way that they did in recent days was actually quite shocking. They certainly at least wanna maintain their naval base and their air base in Syria, and yet when the rebels fell Aleppo, messages out of the Kremlin seem to be, "Assad, deal with it. We're busy." Turkey seems to be the winner in all of this. They have potentially green-lighted this offensive in the first place. They will be able to essentially carry out whatever they want in Syria in the next couple of months as we wait for the new US president to come in. And that is a really terrifying future for the Kurdish population in Syria.

This is a historic day for the Middle East, the collapse of the Assad regime. The tyranny in Damascus offers great opportunity, but also is fraught with significant dangers.

Narrator: Besides the conflicts between Turkish and Kurdish forces, we could see Russia assert power in other countries, or Iran, too.

Many people are wondering if they will simply accelerate the nuclear program, which it seems like they're doing as a different sort of deterrent strategy or even a chemical weapons program for that matter.

Narrator: And within Syria, the occupying forces are still labeled as a terrorist organization, which could make cooperation and humanitarian aid difficult.

We know that they have some bad behavior in Idlib, but that they're also a very pragmatic group and desperately want to get off of the terrorism designation list. So there is a vulnerability that was there to exploit. If people are not allowed to invest, if aid is not allowed to get into the country, it's gonna be a real disaster. Likewise, if the designations are lifted without getting any kind of promises or reassurances of what HTS behavior will look like in the future and other groups as well, it could equally be a disaster for Syria's future.