Name: How Kamala Harris Stacks Up in a Race Against Donald Trump
Uploaded: 2024-07-21T19:35:00Z
Duration: 8 min 37 s
Description: Could Vice President Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? WSJ asks a Democratic strategist, a political scientist and a pollster what her potential pros and cons are going up against the former president.

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Could Vice President Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? WSJ asks a Democratic strategist, a political scientist and a pollster what her potential pros and cons are going up against the former president. Photo: Getty Images

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Could Vice President Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? WSJ asks a Democratic strategist, a political scientist and a pollster what her potential pros and cons are going up against the former president.

How Kamala Harris Stacks Up in a Race Against Donald Trump

Narrator: After ending his run for a second term, President Biden has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him as the Democratic presidential nominee.

No one knows better how to prosecute the case against Donald Trump than Kamala Harris.

She tried, remember, in 2020, in the Democratic primary. We'll see if she's able to come out strong and then maintain that success this time around.

It does put us in a position to have a significantly more competitive election had Joe Biden stayed in the race.

Narrator: Here's how Harris could stack up in a race against former president, Donald Trump.

Donald Trump simply does not have the character to be president of the United States.

Narrator: Experts say Harris could have a tough campaign trail ahead, but she does have some key advantages.

How do you win the presidency if you don't win the majority of white voters? You have to check off all of the other boxes. One advantage Harris has is her potential to win over more women, people of color and young voters.

We're gonna be able to effectively make the case about women's healthcare, their right in terms of choosing how they wanna live their lives.

This is a fight for freedom. The fundamental freedom of a woman to make decisions about her own body.

Narrator: A "Wall Street Journal" poll in April found that abortion was the most powerful issue by far driving suburban women in swing states. Over half of the women in the poll said Trump's policies on abortion were too restrictive.

Demonstrators: Ready to go.

Narrator: Some Democrats and political experts also expect Harris to invoke more excitement from Black voters.

Audience: Kamala, Kamala.

Narrator: A critical advantage at a time when support from that group was slipping for Biden.

As an African American woman, she's gonna have a unique opportunity in terms of how she communicates and has a conversation with voters in Detroit, Michigan, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. These urban centers are really where we're gonna need historic turnout to consolidate around Kamala, so that way, we win these critical swing states.

Narrator: Harris could stand to gain younger voters who had lost confidence in Biden's ability to beat Trump.

Kamala Harris gets to be the knight in shining armor here. She gets to ride in on the horse and be the candidate that is not Joe Biden, that can carry the policies and ideas of Joe Biden without some of the concerns that led to Joe Biden's decision to remove himself.

Narrator: A July poll by Emerson College conducted before the assassination attempt on Trump found that people between the ages of 18 and 29 were the least motivated to vote. Biden was still leading the Democratic ticket at the time of the poll.

It's the younger Democrats, which is, in my opinion, the base of the party. And it's more than just voting, it's about canvassing, it's about phone calling, it's about get out the vote efforts. We cannot do it without all of your help.

All of this is part of the campaign that I think was lacking with Biden, and that's why we have Harris to see if we can capture that energy that has been missing.

Johnathan: Harris actually channels a lot of the candidate characteristics and features of Obama that generated this excitement in 2008.

He was awesome, he was brilliant.

He was awesome.

Just what I was looking for.

This is a young candidate of color that is going to sell us on a vision of America that is multicultural, that is more unified, that is moving into a new future.

Narrator: At 59 years old, Harris is significantly younger than Biden, who's 81.

We get to go coast to coast without worrying about her energy level in terms of hitting critical media markets.

Narrator: Some political experts say Harris's background as a prosecutor helped her come off as a strong debater in her 2020 presidential campaign.

You know, there was a little girl in California who was part of the second class to integrate her public schools, and she was bused to school every day, and that little girl was me.

And this becomes a moment where Harris looks extremely strong. Suddenly, she goes from polling in the single digits to close to 20%.

Narrator: And after her vice presidential debate with Mike Pence, polls showed that more voters thought she won.

Well, let's get--

So I, no, but Susan, this is important, Susan.

Susan, I have to weigh in here.

And I wanna add, Mr. Vice President, I'm speaking.

I have to weigh in.

I'm speaking.

Narrator: Experts say that in a race against Trump, she needs to replicate that debate success.

You also have to be very careful because we've never seen someone survive an assassination attempt and then step onto the debate stage, talk about this openly as a signal of love of country. How will Kamala Harris handle the events that have catapulted Trump's popularity and favorability amongst his base?

Narrator: Recent polls like this one by Emerson College show Harris significantly trails Trump.

What we've seen over the last year when Biden was on the ticket is Trump had a ceiling of about 46%. Never does he really go above that number. Not before the conviction, after the conviction, post-debate, Biden was losing ground or gaining ground, but not being able to get over 45%. Can a Harris candidacy get over 45%, 48%? What she really needs to do is get closer to 50%, and that could give the Democrats the edge.

Narrator: But polls only capture voters' feelings at a specific moment in time. And these results came in before the assassination attempt on Trump. And before Biden dropped out of the race.

When we're looking at these polls prior to the announcement, these are hypothetical candidates, and we ask voters who really haven't taken much time to think about these individuals, so they give you a knee-jerk reaction, generally based on name recognition. With Harris, you see lower numbers in some of these demographics, but over the course of a few weeks, I expect to see them bounce back in her favor.

USA, USA.

But in a toe-to-toe race against Trump, experts say Harris would need to prove that she's a strong leader, something 44% of voters said they were looking for in a candidate, according to a poll by Monmouth University.

Donald Trump, this is a person that is not shy on confidence. Nobody knows the system better than me.

With people who are already sort of ideologically aligned and therefore also see Trump as an effective leader, he's in a prime position to demonstrate this idea of, "I am the leader of the free world." With Kamala Harris, what will be her, "I am the leader of the free world," moment?

The biggest concern for Harris will be immigration.

My trip to Guatemala and Mexico was about addressing the root causes.

She's gonna have to defend those policies.

Kamala had one job, one job. And that was to fix the border. Now imagine her in charge of the entire country.

Narrator: But at the end of the day, some experts say this is a race based on personalities, not policies. And Harris replacing Biden would force the Trump campaign to change its offensive strategy.

Trump has spent so much time, the last 3 1/2 years, on Biden.

Could you imagine if Biden was up here and the teleprompters didn't work?

And we'll see how he's able to make his case against Harris.

They can't decide which of their candidates is more unfit to be president. Sleepy, crooked Joe Biden, or laughing Kamala.

Narrator: Harris entering the race now would be the latest candidate has joined a presidential election since 1968. Biden had been the presumptive nominee since March.

This creates questions around how well organized the Democratic Party may be.

It's a very short onboarding process. Joe Biden, Donald Trump, they've been around. While Vice President Harris has had an extensive career, it's certainly not nearly as long as these other two candidates.

Narrator: But a big question remains, who would Harris pick to be her vice president?

This can be very important both regionally and demographically because she needs to shore up some of her base.

Narrator: That decision might be the key to what experts say is Harris's best path forward.

The Obama coalition that we saw in 2008, can you bring that group back together? That's a coalition of robust historical turnout, African Americans dominating amongst Latinos and really holding your own amongst white voters and rural voters, so that way, there's no more bleed to the Republican Party.

What the Democrats really liked was President Obama and his ability to articulate ideas and talk to groups of people and get them excited.

Yes, we can.

If Candidate Harris is able to speak with that confidence and be able to rally groups with her voice would be a exceptional game changer in this race.

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