Name: How Trump’s Strikes on Venezuelan Boats Could Spiral Into Hot Conflict
Uploaded: 2025-09-16T15:15:00Z
Duration: 6 min 11 s
Description: WSJ’s Vera Bergengruen explains how the heightened rhetoric and military moves by the Trump administration and Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro could escalate.

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WSJ’s Vera Bergengruen explains how the heightened rhetoric and military moves by the Trump administration and Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro could escalate. Photo: Martin Bernetti/AFP/Getty Images; Francis Chung/CNP/Zuma Press

https://m.wsj.net/video/20250916/c807a07e-9242-4a41-8688-c21c7d017e96/6/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

WSJ’s Vera Bergengruen explains how the heightened rhetoric and military moves by the Trump administration and Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro could escalate.

How Trump’s Strikes on Venezuelan Boats Could Spiral Into Hot Conflict

Reporter: Do you think we'll start doing strikes on mainland Venezuela?

We'll see what happens.

Narrator: Tensions between the US and Venezuela have reached a crisis point.

There's been a very rapid buildup in the region, which is pretty unprecedented in modern times.

Narrator: The Trump administration has shown it will use a lethal force to combat drug cartels, and it's repeatedly tied Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to drug trafficking.

The Maduro regime is not the legitimate government of Venezuela, it is a narco terror cartel.

The question is, how much of this is just a show of force or meant to be political theater, or how much does this actually risk a significant major confrontation with Venezuela?

Narrator: On Inauguration Day, President Trump signed an executive order, paving the way to label drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. 10 groups in total now have been designated, allowing the US government to cease their assets, blacklist anyone who does business with them and in the eyes of the administration, use force against them.

Narrator: In the past, that meant Coast Guard arrests, but today it means the full might of the US military.

He's able to use the whole playbook from the post 9/11 wars, for example, to target them as imminent threats to the homeland, which is what Secretary of State Marco Rubio and defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have said is basically why it's legal for them to be targeting whoever they want in the hemisphere with military lethal strikes.

It doesn't work. Interdiction doesn't work. What will stop them is when you blow them up, when you get rid of them.

Narrator: The DEA reported in July that the vast majority of cocaine seized by the US comes from Colombia. The UN says nearly 75% of it is smuggled throughout in the Pacific with less than 10% moving through the Eastern Caribbean, including Venezuela. But the White House is quick to tie Maduro to the drug trade.

I don't care what the UN says, the UN doesn't know what they're talking about. Maduro is indicted by a grand jury in the Southern district of New York.

Narrator: In August, the Justice Department doubled the reward for information leading to his arrest to $50 million, twice what was offered for Osama Bin Laden.

They're making him the face of the very drug cartels that they are now targeting as terrorists, which even though they're not intending as far as we know to go after the Madura regime, what that means is that, you know, anything that they do to go after drug traffickers can be transferred onto the Venezuela government itself.

Narrator: In mid-August, the administration deployed three US destroyers to the region, as well as an amphibious ready group identified here in this satellite image, along with the cruiser P-8 spy planes, and 10 stealth jet fighters.

The Trump administration has been laying the groundwork for months to go after drug traffickers and target the cartel specifically, and so far every indication is that that's what they're doing. At the same time, this is obviously ratcheting a pressure on Maduro.

Narrator: In response, Maduro accused the US of preparing to invade and try to topple his government, rallying Venezuelans behind him and even calling up militia members to defend the patria or Fatherland.

All of this is really kind of feeding into Maduro's narrative and allowing him to get his nationalistic message out.

Narrator: But tensions escalated sharply when the administration unleashed American firepower for the first time. They released a video of a US strike, and what they said was a fast boat, trafficking drugs from Venezuela, killing all 11 people on board.

There's more where that came from.

Narrator: Two weeks later, another strike killed three people aboard a vessel in international waters. The administration claimed they were also smuggling illegal narcotics from Venezuela without providing evidence.

Trump officials have said that they intend to keep striking boats like this, and this is only the beginning of a bigger front that they're opening against the drug cartels. What is unclear is how much they intend for this to destabilize Maduro's regime.

The only person that should be worried is Nicolas Maduro.

Under President Trump's leadership, Maduro will not escape justice.

Narrator: Despite the hope of some in Venezuela's opposition, US officials say There is no policy to overthrow his government.

Would you like to see regime change in Venezuela?

Well, we're not talking about that.

Narrator: In fact, both men are trying to use the tensions to their advantage.

Both of them benefit from the imagery and show of force and being able to look tough to their respective domestic audiences. For President Trump, he wants to show again that he is very serious about dismantling the drug cartels. He does not really want to deploy boots on the ground that would be required to actually depose Maduro or deal with whatever comes next.

Narrator: Recently, Trump has even been quietly cooperating with Maduro on two key domestic priorities, energy and immigration. In August, the first oil tankers left Venezuela for the US after Trump waived sanctions to allow Chevron to resume imports. And in recent months, the US has sent on average two deportation flights a week to Venezuela, according to data collected by a monitoring group. That requires close cooperation between the two governments.

For Maduro's side, he just wants to stay in power and he's not a popular leader, and he's trying to basically use this in order to stoke nationalistic fervor.

There's no indication that either side really benefits from this escalating into a larger conflict, so they may be careful not to step over that line. But again, there could be a miscalculation where if the tit for tat goes too far, we might be looking at an armed confrontation.

Narrator: Days after that first strike, two Venezuelan jet fighters buzzed the US warship in international waters.

If they do put us in a dangerous position, they'll be shut down.

It remains to be seen as they go after them, how closely they're going to link the future of these drug cartels with the future of Nicolas Maduro and how far they're willing to stretch their authorities to use military power to go after both.

News moves fast, and there's not always time to untangle the complex forces driving the day's biggest stories. WSJ Explains breaks down big market moves, business and economic trends, and scientific developments to help you stay ahead of the curve.