Name: Trump Is Attracting Young Male Voters. Can Harris Change That?
Uploaded: 2024-08-16T23:00:00Z
Duration: 5 min 14 s
Description: For over 20 years, young voters have supported Democratic candidates. But WSJ polling from 2024 shows a growing number are supporting the Republican party, especially young men. WSJ’s Aaron Zitner explains why.

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For over 20 years, young voters have supported Democratic candidates. But WSJ polling from 2024 shows a growing number are supporting the Republican party, especially young men. WSJ’s Aaron Zitner explains why. Illustration: Annie Zhao

https://m.wsj.net/video/20240816/2f42b70d-ea21-41f9-84ec-ee8446ce5a44/3/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

For over 20 years, young voters have supported Democratic candidates. But WSJ polling from 2024 shows a growing number are supporting the Republican party, especially young men. WSJ’s Aaron Zitner explains why.

Trump Is Attracting Young Male Voters. Can Harris Change That?

Narrator: In 2008, 58% of young people leaned Democratic. 2012, 53%. And in the last two major election years, that percentage held steady at 55%. But in 2023, that number dipped below 50% for the first time since 2005. And you'll notice right here, they started to lean more Republican. And that's partly because of one specific group, young men. Young men have increased their support of the Republican Party from 35% to 48%, a 13 percentage point increase in just seven years. And this is a new trend. While 2020 exit polls show that young men backed Biden by 15 percentage points, a February, 2024 Wall Street Journal poll found they favored Trump by 14 percentage points. And this loss of young male voters is a major issue for the Democratic party going into November. The question now, can Kamala Harris brings some back? Here's what's driving young men to support Republicans, and what it could mean for the presidential election to come.

Make America great again!

When we ask young voters, "What issue is most important to you" "when you go to cast a vote?" Among young men, it's the economy. Among young women, it's abortion.

Narrator: 17% of men say the economy is the most important issue, followed by democracy and immigration. Whereas for young women, the top issue is abortion, by a lot.

Why is this happening? Well, we put the reasons into two different buckets. One is the life experiences that young men and young women are having. Those life experiences are diverging.

Narrator: Young men without a college degree have seen the greatest decline in labor force participation. Meanwhile, a record 87% of college-educated women are in the workforce. And today, women make up 60% of college graduates.

Aaron Zitner: This division that we're seeing between young men and young women, it goes beyond who they're gonna vote for for Congress or president. It goes to a range of policy issues. So then, let's look at what the government is offering. The Biden administration has moved to forgive federally funded student loans, that affects young women more than young men.

Narrator: During the 2019, 2020 school year, 49% of female undergraduate students took out loans, compared to only 42% of male undergraduates. And 66% of all student debt is carried by women.

Aaron Zitner: The young women favored for giving student loans by 45 percentage points. The young men were about equally divided. I mean, that's a big difference.

Narrator: Meanwhile, young men support extending Trump's tax cuts by 23 percentage points, which cut the corporate tax rate and reduced some individual income tax.

And now, because of our tax cuts, you can keep more of your hard-earned money.

Narrator: But women oppose the proposed extension by 20 percentage points, a full 43 point difference.

That's data that goes like this. young men headed in one direction, and young women in the other. That's a big difference. Data does not usually segment young voters that remarkably, this is something new,

Narrator: Which brings us back to this chart. 22% of young female voters say abortion is their number one issue in this election, a key aspect of Harris's campaign.

We trust women to make decisions about their own body.

Narrator: Only 3% of young male voters said the same. And young men and women stacked up differently on other issues as well. With immigration, Trump's policies are much more likely to be supported by men than women. Men support deploying troops at the border by 10 percentage points, whereas women oppose this policy by 15 points. And when it comes to building the wall, one of Trump's key immigration policies, men are only slightly leaning towards opposition, but women overwhelmingly oppose it. These gaps are hard to explain just by differences in lived experience. Which brings us to the second thing that explains the gap between young men and women.

What are the candidates and what are the parties saying to young voters? Donald trump and the Republican Party are putting out a lot of messages expressly intended to appeal to young men. Donald Trump has gone to Ultimate Fighting Championship matches.

Commentator: And the president getting a standing ovation.

Aaron Zitner: He recently appeared on the podcast of Logan Paul. He went to a sneaker convention to sell his own brand of sneakers.

We gotta get young people out to vote.

Aaron Zitner: These are audiences that are overwhelmingly male, and overwhelmingly filled with young men, and it's a way that Donald Trump and his campaign have been saying, "Hey, young men, I'm with you." "I'm on the same page as you." "I understand you."

Narrator: Meanwhile...

Aaron Zitner: A lot of the messaging from the Democratic Party has been towards issues that are more salient for women.

When I'm president of the United States, I will sign into law the protections for reproductive freedom.

Narrator: So what does this mean for November? Young women historically vote at higher rates than young men. But experts say that with a tight election, the Democratic Party will need to draw in as many votes as possible. The next challenge for the Republican Party will be figuring out how to turn these young male supporters into actual voters.

News moves fast, and there's not always time to untangle the complex forces driving the day's biggest stories. WSJ Explains breaks down big market moves, business and economic trends, and scientific developments to help you stay ahead of the curve.