Name: Republican but Not for Trump: What Stats Show About Voters Who Could Sway the Election
Uploaded: 2024-02-01T05:00:00Z
Duration: 5 min 2 s
Description: Donald Trump may have won Iowa and New Hampshire, but nearly half of Republican voters there cast ballots for someone else. And many say they wouldn’t vote for Trump in November, either. Who are these Republicans? WSJ looks at the data. Photo illustration: Madeline Marshall

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Donald Trump may have won Iowa and New Hampshire, but nearly half of Republican voters there cast ballots for someone else. And many say they wouldn’t vote for Trump in November, either. Who are these Republicans? WSJ looks at the data. Photo illustration: Madeline Marshall

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Republican but Not for Trump: What Stats Show About Voters Who Could Sway the Election

Announcer: Donald Trump has started strong in the 2024 primary with wins in Iowa and New Hampshire.

We won New Hampshire three times now, three.

Announcer: Yet nearly half of primary voters didn't vote for him. When those non-Trump voters were asked how they'd feel if he were the nominee, some said they would be satisfied with it, some said they'd be dissatisfied but would still vote for him in November. But a good number seen here in orange said they would be so dissatisfied they wouldn't. So what can we learn about these voters? We've asked our demographics expert.

There are signs in New Hampshire and in Iowa that there's a schism in the party that's pretty meaningful.

Announcer: Here's what the data says about these voters that could be trouble for Trump in November. Let's break these into two, Trump voters on the left and the non-Trump voters on the right. In New Hampshire, we're really talking about Haley voters. In Iowa, we'll do a weighted average of the voters who voted for her, DeSantis, or Ramaswamy. If you look at some of their basic demographics, the difference doesn't lie in gender. Both the Trump and non-Trump voters have about equal amounts of men and women. It doesn't lie in age either. They're equally people with guns in their homes and just as likely to be evangelical Christian. But differences come up when you look at education. Non-Trump voters are more likely to have college degrees and at income most earn above 50,000 or even a $100,000, and they tend to be more suburban just like the Republican Party was before Donald Trump.

We used to have a kind of voter, we called the Country Club Republican, upper income and suburban, Donald Trump activated people who didn't vote very much before. We know that he's brought in a lot of working class people, but in the course of doing that he's alienated others. So what we're seeing in those states is who he's pushing away.

Announcer: To see who that is, there are two themes to look at. For one, the issues they care about. Trump and non-Trump voters equally care about the economy. But non-Trump voters care less about immigration, and two times more about foreign policy. They also care more about domestic issues like abortion and healthcare. Non-Trump voters also favor continuing aid to Ukraine, especially in New Hampshire where more independent voters weigh in. But more than half of Trump voters say that it's important to them to have a Republican nominee that's willing to break the rules to get things done, which hints at the larger theme separating these voters, Trump himself.

I'm gonna be a dictator for one day for drilling and for closing the border. And after that, I'm not gonna be a dictator.

Announcer: When asked about the charges against Trump, nearly all of his voters described them as political attempts to undermine him. While non-Trump voters were more likely to describe them as legitimate attempts to investigate important issues.

It's a witch hunt in the truest sense of the word, it's election interference.

Announcer: When it comes to his involvement in January 6th in particular, the majority of Trump supporters believe he did nothing wrong, but more non-Trump voters feel that Trump either did something unethical but not illegal or illegal. And with the 2020 election, the majority of Trump supporters feel Biden was not legitimately elected. Non-Trump voters believe Biden's win was legitimate.

So those are fundamental rejections of the Donald Trump proposition and the things that he's saying to win the voters who he's winning. And there's really not much in Donald Trump's rhetoric or behavior now that shows that he's trying to reach out to voters who think that the election was not stolen.

But if you're with us, they put you in jail. Look at what's happened with the J6 hostages. The hostages, that's a horrible thing.

Announcer: Despite these divides, Trump's wins are putting him in his strong position to win enough delegates to become the Republican nominee.

This really is Donald Trump's party. What we're talking about here is a November problem.

Announcer: It's unclear whether these non-Trump voters would vote for Biden instead or just not show up to the polls. But in a general election, you can't lose your base. Just look at 2020s voters. This is how many people voted who consider themselves Democrats and who consider themselves Republicans. 95% of Democrats voted for Biden, and only 91% of Republicans voted for Trump. That drop in base support was a major reason it cost him the election. In Iowa and New Hampshire, Republicans who said they would vote for Trump if he was the nominee in November came to only 80%.

Is there anybody in this room that's not going to vote for Trump, just say. Don't raise your hand, it could be dangerous stuff.

Announcer: Every election, candidates vie for these independent voters. But in 2024, there's signs that Trump is pushing away a significant portion of his base. So the campaign becomes about who can he pull in.