Name: The Fed Is Flying Blind at Its Next Meeting: Here’s What to Watch
Uploaded: 2025-10-28T14:00:00Z
Duration: 1 min 47 s
Description: An extended government shutdown has left the Federal Reserve in the dark over how far and fast to cut rates. WSJ’s Nick Timiraos explains the three things to watch during the central bank’s upcoming interest rate decision.

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An extended government shutdown has left the Federal Reserve in the dark over how far and fast to cut rates. WSJ’s Nick Timiraos explains the three things to watch during the central bank’s upcoming interest rate decision. Photo Illustration: Rachel Rogers

https://m.wsj.net/video/20251028/1bb29b3a-0747-44d1-aa90-6d138a2111a1/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

An extended government shutdown has left the Federal Reserve in the dark over how far and fast to cut rates. WSJ’s Nick Timiraos explains the three things to watch during the central bank’s upcoming interest rate decision.

The Fed Is Flying Blind at Its Next Meeting: Here’s What to Watch

The Fed is effectively flying blind right now, the government shutdown has turned off data releases. That's making it harder for them to reconcile this debate over how far and how fast should they be cutting interest rates. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates at it's meeting this week, but it's going to be a weirder meeting than normal. What I'll be watching on Wednesday is first, what does the Feds say about December? Did they come out of this meeting having any sense as to where the direction of travel is for another interest rate cut in December? At the Fed's last meeting, there was a split between officials who thought they would need to keep cutting interest rates because they were more worried about the labor market and those who didn't think further interest rate cuts would be needed because they're more worried about inflation. Since then, there hasn't been a lot of data to reconcile that debate. We did get last week, the consumer price index for September, and it showed that inflation pressures haven't been as bad as feared earlier this year, though they do show that inflation is still running well above the Fed's 2% target. Second, the Fed is expected to debate ending the runoff of their $6.6 trillion asset portfolio. These are bonds and securities that the Fed purchased during and after the pandemic. They've been slowly shrinking those holdings from a peak of $9 trillion in 2022. But recent signs of funding pressures in overnight lending markets have led analysts to think the Fed is gonna call an end to it. The economy's always uncertain for the Fed, but especially so right now when they don't have the data. And then on top of that, when you get into 2026, you're gonna have a new Fed chair in May. Is that person gonna wanna do even more aggressive interest rate cuts once they're in the big seat?