Name: The Outlook for Oil
Uploaded: 2024-03-26T16:00:00Z
Duration: 2 min 32 s
Description: On the Barron’s Streetwise podcast, Rystad Energy’s Alexandre Ramos Peon discusses how U.S. oil producers have boosted profitability and production despite fewer wells.

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On the Barron’s Streetwise podcast, Rystad Energy’s Alexandre Ramos Peon discusses how U.S. oil producers have boosted profitability and production despite fewer wells.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20240326/0a4b30c7-379c-460f-abc3-838a7f1eb1a9/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

The Outlook for Oil

So right now, as things stands with oil in the 70s, even in the 60s, it's very profitable for most of the players that are active today. So everything that's unprofitable, all of the drilling in these areas that are not good, that's gone already. One way to put it is that the breakeven price, in order to generate returns on these investments, it varies a lot across the region and depending on many things, but on average, it's around 55 to $60 WTI for oil price. If you drop below 60, then activity will need to decline and production will drop, and the Middle East will open up, you know, will probably increase the production, and that will be very bad for the U.S. oil and gas industry. At 70 bucks, all of these companies are making a killing and they can probably keep going for the longest time. It's two things. There is small private companies, they are the ones growing the most. You know, running one or two or three rigs, smaller companies that you've never heard about. They're free to do what they want, and their business model is to sell out to the bigger oil companies. And if you've been following these earnings, everybody's obsessed right now with the topic of inventory and long-term plans, and what are we gonna do in 30 years with the country? So it's all about securing inventory, right? So there were huge acquisitions recently. Exxon acquired Pioneer, for example, two of the largest oil companies in the United States. And their stated objective with this is synergies and whatnot, but in reality, it's securing a large acreage, right? Piece of land where they will be able to keep drilling for the next century or so, because, you know, it's a finite resource. There's still a lot of it, but it will run out if you keep drilling at the current pace. So there's concerns about how far can you go in time and who is going to be relevant 20 years from now. A lot of these small private companies running three rigs fueled by private equity, they're not interested in 10 years down the road. They want to prove to the investors that they're sitting on good acreage, that they can grow production fast, that their wells are good, and that, therefore, this company is valuable. And then these private equity funds need to have an exit strategy, so they will be sold sooner or later.