Name: Trump, Taiwan and the ‘Thucydides Trap’
Uploaded: 2026-05-19T22:23:00Z
Duration: 6 min 35 s
Description: An Editor at Large: A U.S.-China conflict would be perilous for both nations, and the ultimate outcome isn’t inevitable.

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An Editor at Large: A U.S.-China conflict would be perilous for both nations, and the ultimate outcome isn’t inevitable. Photo: Ann Wang/Reuters/Alamy Stock Image/Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

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An Editor at Large: A U.S.-China conflict would be perilous for both nations, and the ultimate outcome isn’t inevitable.

Trump, Taiwan and the ‘Thucydides Trap’

We've made some fantastic trade deals, great for both countries. He's a man I respect greatly.

Did President Trump just sell Taiwan to China's Xi Jinping in exchange for some high level flattery and an agreement to buy soybeans and jets?

Boeing wanted 150, he got 200.

Well, not so fast. Words in Mr. Trump's mouth are endlessly malleable and soon will be replaced by different ones.

On Taiwan, he feels very strongly. I made no commitment either way.

The president may have sounded accommodating after his summit with Mr. Xi, but officials said afterwards that nothing in the actual summit itself was surrendered. And despite the official readout from the Chinese with its warning about conflicts over Taiwan, Mr. Trump's conversation with Fox News Bret Baier on his return, was reassuringly vague.

Should the people of Taiwan feel more or less secure after your meetings with President Xi?

Neutral, neutral. This has been going on for years.

Has the policy changed at all?

No, nothing's changed.

US policy?

No, nothing's changed. I will say this, I'm not looking to have somebody go independent, and you know, we're supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I'm not looking for that. I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down,

But this won't stop everyone from watching nervously as Mr. Trump ponders new arm sales to Taiwan.

Well, I haven't approved it yet. We're gonna see what happens.

What are you looking for?

I may do it, I may not do it.

But even if Republican members of Congress continue their process of self-annihilation as an independent branch of government, the law, the Taiwan Relations Act, which requires such sales, may provide a convenient substitute for their spine. And Mr. Trump seems to have a better grasp of the US' long held policy of strategic ambiguity than did his predecessor.

Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?

Yes.

You are?

That's the commitment we made.

Taiwan's future looms larger in geo strategy today because China's rise threatens, not only that democratic country's freedoms, but also the fate of America's allies in Asia and the wider framework of American security. Question is, Mr. Biden's assertion aside, would Americans tolerate a nuclear war with a superpower that could end up being an extinction level event over the defense of an island that we don't even recognize as an independent nation? The apparent reluctance of Americans to tolerate the costs of war with Iran, higher gasoline prices, and perhaps a looming shortage of fertilizer and other products, suggests the answer is a firm no.

As far as I can tell, the US side has not offered any strategic concessions on Taiwan. And so the sort of principle of first do no harm applies when we're talking about Taiwan, and here, I think that's been satisfied.

But the other uncertainty has always been whether China would take the risk of an armed conflict over Taiwan. Beijing is watching the war in Iran closely too, and while it's surely happy to see the US ensnaring itself in another Middle East man trap, it will be focused on another lesson, the paradox of asymmetric warfare. Russia and Ukraine, the US in Iraq, Afghanistan and now Iran, it's a record of vastly superior militaries struggling against minnows. Meanwhile, the disruption to trade in the Gulf and its global effects are a reminder of the economic calamity that could accompany any war in the Taiwan Strait.

China is the most energy dependent country in the world, just the opposite of the US, which is the most energy dominant country in the world.

China recovered Hong Kong and Macau in the past 30 years without firing a shot and crushed them both under its repressive autocracy. Xi Jinping may be counting on the same dynamic with Taiwan, but there's no colonial power to hand the island over to without a fight. And China's ability to prevail by force is predicated on its confidence that it is the ascendant power in the world.

The world has come to a new crossroads. Can China and the United States overcome the Thucydides Trap and create a new paradigm of major country relations?

Mr. Xi's reference to the Thucidides Trap was revealing of that self-belief.

Thucydides was the founder and father of history. He wrote a famous book about 2000 years ago called "History of the Peloponnesian War." And in it, he explains that when a rapidly rising power like Athens, he was writing about, threatens to displace and establish ruling power, that creates a dynamic that typically ends in war.

It's clear that Mr. Xi sees China as Athens and America as Sparta, but the lessons learned don't point to inevitable rise or decline. The Peloponnesian War ended with the victory of Sparta, the incumbent power, and the capitulation of Athens, the rising one, after a series of catastrophic military errors by Athens, including, most notoriously, the Sicilian expedition, an attempt by Athens to extend its imperial footprint far across the distant sea.

Whatever Xi Jinping may have said, I'm confident President Trump delivered a message that the United States understands how important Taiwan is, not just to our our geopolitical interests, but to our commercial interests as well. The AI fight largely takes place there, and President Trump is not gonna permit Xi Jinping to do something that would jeopardize the American economy in that way.

The only reliable lesson is that there is no inevitability in great power rivalry. Wise leadership, prudent judgment, strategic patience, the careful maintenance of alliances, domestic cohesion, the promotion of economic dynamism, these are all choices that trump destiny in the pursuit of national greatness.

We've known each other now 11 years, almost 12 years. That's a long time. And we've settled a lot of different problems that other people wouldn't have been able to settle.

We have only to make the right ones.

WSJ Opinion: Trump, Taiwan and the ‘Thucydides Trap’

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