Name: Cuts on the Horizon?
Uploaded: 2023-09-18T14:00:00Z
Duration: 2 min 3 s
Description: Chris Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, explains what would make him more bullish on stocks and when he sees a Fed rate cut coming.

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Chris Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, explains what would make him more bullish on stocks and when he sees a Fed rate cut coming.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20230918/1f534ddf-5da9-4d1d-9926-fda63e90468e/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Cuts on the Horizon?

So you're keeping an eye on IG spreads, weekly jobless claims, what else is it that you're going to be looking for? What would make you more bullish?

That's a great question. What would make us more bullish is so 10 year yields have gone up significantly. If we believe that ten year yields are going to come down and continue to come down, not because we're going to go into recession, but because we've tamed inflation, inflation will slowly come down, then that's your nirvana, that's the place where equities can really work, where growth stocks can really work, and where you can have a significant, where we would get a lot more bullish because the other thing that likely would happen in that environment, as inflation comes down, the Fed would need to start to moderate their tone. They would need to probably start to cut rates to a small degree, and that's going to help a lot. So what would make us more bullish is inflation coming down, not sharply, but steadily. And that growth was holding up reasonably well.

And finally, Chris, when do you expect the Fed to start cutting rates?

It's probably second quarter of next year or second half of next year. We're listening to their words. We're gonna believe them at what they're saying. One of the things that we will watch and we continue to watch as we look at the spread between Fed funds and the two year. There's an inversion there where there is an inversion between twos and tens, but we think it's a much more timely indicator. And if that inversion becomes something more the lines of about 1% or a hundred basis points, then we think the Fed has to, the market's telling the Fed you need to accelerate the pace. You need to be more aggressive here on the cutting side and start easing. But until we see that, we really do believe the Fed's gonna take their time. And so it maybe is second quarter but probably second half of next year.

Cuts on the Horizon?

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