Name: Inflation in the Spotlight
Uploaded: 2023-09-11T13:45:00Z
Duration: 3 min 6 s
Description: Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, discusses how market moving the August inflation data could be.

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Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, discusses how market moving the August inflation data could be.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20230911/50b8c6b4-8fd3-4d6f-adff-dd0a024a57d7/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Inflation in the Spotlight

Liz, this is a market that's been very focused on the Fed. There's this renewed fear of possibly higher rates weighing on stocks over the past few days. How market moving could the upcoming inflation data be?

Well, first and foremost, I think it's important to look back at what happened in summer. We did have a really nice rally in July and everybody got so excited because everything was broadening out. Small caps were participating, cyclical sectors were participating, and it looked like this was a classic bull market scenario. And then into August, things got much softer. And obviously as we sit here roughly early September, S&P and NASDAQ down and stocks have given a little bit of that back. But it's been very orderly and I think it's been very rational. So coming into the CPI report, I think the market is in a more rational place. And what I mean by that is we've seen yields rise again. We've seen the 10 year go up maybe because of growth expectations being stronger than before, perhaps because the Fed indicated, again, that they would keep raising rates if they needed to. Regardless, we've seen the 10 year yield rise again and stocks have sold off in response and that is the rational way to do it. That is the rational response by investors. So I think that giving back some of this multiple expansion was healthy. That all being said, I think the CPI report and probably the following few months of CPI reports are going to weigh heavily on markets both in the positive and the negative. But the trouble with it is that we already passed the peak of year over year comparisons, right? The peak was last June. So that's behind us. And now the comparisons are going to get more difficult. Also, we're looking in the face of oil prices that have gone up tremendously over the past month or so. That could increase CPI as well. So I think the market is set up to be perhaps surprised in a way that it doesn't want to be with a hotter CPI report.

And how does that play out then? Do you expect this market to be less orderly and less rational?

I don't know that one CPI report would be a big enough catalyst to send things in a really, really volatile direction. I would expect a sell off in the face of that, basically on the expectation that the Fed would continue raising because we're still sort of in this weird period where we're not sure if they're done yet. They may be done, they may raise again, they may just pause for another month. So we're unsure about whether or not the hiking cycle is actually over. I think we're sure that we're closer to the end of it than the beginning of it, but we don't know that it's done. If we get a hotter than expected CPI report, I would expect Fed Funds futures to show increased likelihood of another hike. I would expect yields to go up again. And I would expect that the market, particularly the NASDAQ or the NASDAQ 100 to sell off. I don't, again, I don't think that one report would be enough to really send things in a different direction or scare investors entirely. But I think it would be met with a negative reaction in the market, at least for a few days.

Inflation in the Spotlight

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