Name: Is Electric Vehicle Demand Cooling Off?
Uploaded: 2024-03-29T21:58:00Z
Duration: 5 min 11 s
Description: On the Barron's Streetwise Podcast, Barron’s senior writer Al Root sits down with Jack Hough to discuss Toyota’s recent success with hybrids, the coolest cars at the New York Auto Show, and what’s ahead for Tesla stock.

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On the Barron's Streetwise Podcast, Barron’s senior writer Al Root sits down with Jack Hough to discuss Toyota’s recent success with hybrids, the coolest cars at the New York Auto Show, and what’s ahead for Tesla stock.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20240329/f163bbd7-0cb6-4c6f-b7f9-a85ae5cd2553/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

Is Electric Vehicle Demand Cooling Off? 

I was talking a short while ago about how growth in electric vehicles has cooled off and how hybrid vehicles are taking off. What did you see in terms of the mix at the auto show? Do you feel like car makers are gonna have the right mix of vehicles for this moment, or are they over-electrified?

Think, you know, to answer the mix question in two ways, I don't think they have the right mix, because one of the big problems in the US is there's too many expensive electric vehicles, and depending on how you count Teslas and all these sorts of things, which is officially a luxury brand, 25% of all the luxury cars sold in America are all electric. So these are cars that are 50, $60,000. So that market is oversaturated, and some of the ones you see at the show and the ones that they're bringing out are still expensive cars. We sat in a Polestar 4, that's actually, they're lower priced SUV, that'll be more like $60,000. Volkswagen ID.7, very nice car, it'll be a little more expensive. So that is problematic for the US market. In terms of the mix of electric, hybrid and traditional vehicles. You know, automaker by automaker, it's a little different. Ford has a complete lineup. General Motors is a little light on the hybrids. Toyota way more focused on hybrids, not really focused on electrics, they do have a couple of models. So for, for the country at large, you know, the mix is fine, for each individual automaker, it's a little bit more of a nuanced story.

Al, if I understand correctly, Tesla has cut prices on its existing vehicles, but it has also said that it's reaching the sort of natural limit of how far it can bring down costs to manufacture those vehicles. So maybe the cost cutting is done for now, and we're waiting for that next cheap vehicle. Have I got that right?

Yeah, I think so. I mean their operating profit margins fell, you know, 10 percentage points year over year in the fourth quarter, and they're below 10%, they're below Toyota. So you would expect them to say, "Well, we're getting to the limits of pricing." But it's always like, another reason they say that is because, you know, you cut prices by 10,000 bucks, and, oh look, you sell, 100,000 more fly out the door, you cut prices by another 5,000 bucks, and you know, nothing happens, right? It becomes, and I think that's created this stir in the auto industry. Why would you do that? Car companies tend to do things, you know, in a little more measured way, and Elon started saying things like, "I can sell as many cars as I want. I just have to modify the price. Demand is infinite if my price is zero," you know? Like he was making these, you know, like I just went to economics 101 class, and I think he sort of learned that it's not actually exactly like he thinks. There's sort of a mix of pricing, and incentives, and even, dare I say, advertising that's better than just slashing prices every day.

Is it al.root@barrons.com for those angry emails?

Dow Jones. Tesla famously does no advertising, and these price cuts have cost it 25, 30 billion in sales revenue. You know, you could spend a lot on ads that is less than 25 or $30 billion

VW bus. The classic bus is coming back and what does it look like? What did you see? Tell us about it.

You know, so that stub nosed, you know, no hood VW bus is back in all electric form. It's on sale in Europe, it's coming on sale in the US this year. They brought it to the show. It's pretty cool, it's called the ID.Buzz. So now the Volkswagen bus is the ID.Buzz. I don't know why ID, ID, it means it's electric if you buy a Volkswagen, somebody came up with that. You know, so it's two-tone color, it has an electrochromic roof, so you can make, it's all glass, so you can make the roof clear, or you can make the roof opaque, you know, so it's this, you know, these sorts of cool features. The thing about from a business perspective, this is a different form factor for an EV. True seven-seater, very comfortably seat seven, huge seats. It's a van and it was a pretty cool car. So we'll see how it does. But that was a highlight, that's not in the hypercar range. It'll be more modestly priced, probably in the 40 to 50.

I wonder if that'll sell well do you think that that's, I mean, it's too weird maybe to sell well, right?

It's probably more of a niche vehicle, you know, tens of thousands of units a year. But you know, when people see 'em, they'll think they're cool and, you know, if it's really cheap, maybe it'll sell better.

It's quirky, and my sense is that a typical family doesn't wanna be quirky with their $40,000 vehicle. You know, maybe your socks, start with your socks, buy some quirky socks, and show those off at work, but your vehicle keep that more mainstream.

Is Electric Vehicle Demand Cooling Off?

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