Name: September to Remember?
Uploaded: 2023-09-05T12:00:00Z
Duration: 9 min 52 s
Description: Baird’s Ross Mayfield makes the case for a better than expected September for stocks while Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities explains why big tech can rally another 15%.

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Baird’s Ross Mayfield makes the case for a better than expected September for stocks while Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities explains why big tech can rally another 15%.

https://m.wsj.net/video/20230905/156bf778-e13d-41ef-b750-55e2ef1c0162/1/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8

September to Remember? 

Welcome to Market Brief. Let's get you ready for the week ahead and for what could be a downbeat September for stocks. If history is a guide, September is the worst month for the market with the S&P 500 falling an average of 1.1% dating back to 1928. However, my first guest says it might not be so bad after all. Ross Mayfield is investment strategy analyst at Baird. Here's why.

So the market has really been trading on rates lately. So big spike in rates at the beginning of August, stock sell off, kind of a typical fall seasonal pattern, but then we've gotten some reprieve on that front over the more recent weeks and stocks have rallied a bit. You know, I think regaining some momentum is a positive thing. I think the spike in rates has paused a bit. So September typically is pretty bad, but might not be as bad this time around. There's also a stat that, if the market rally is strong heading into September, September isn't quite as bad as it is on the overall reading. So I think volatility, some chop is to be expected, but I don't expect kind of the historically bad September like we've become used to.

This is a market that's becoming increasingly optimistic about a soft landing scenario. Do you think that's too optimistic at this point?

You know, valuations are extended. Sentiment positioning have gotten a little offsides, although that has calmed down a bit given August's weakness. So I think, yeah, the market is priced for a soft landing at this point, which does probably skew some risk to the downside, because even if you have a re-acceleration of economic momentum from this point, all that does is bring the Fed back into play, keep rates restrictive higher for longer, you know, which all things equal is risk off for stock. So the market is priced for a soft landing. The market is priced for a re-acceleration in earnings in 2024 to the tune of double digit growth and a expansion of profit margins. Those estimates might need to come down a bit, you know, we're in the soft landing camp, but I would say the risks from here probably skew downside just given all of the headwinds in play with the consumer, with the fed, with inflation, with rates.

So what are the implications? How should investors navigate this market if risk is skewed to the downside and earnings estimates are too high?

Well, I think one thing you can do is add some fixed income to your portfolio, add some duration, the defensive sections of the market, you know, your utilities, your staples have given basically nothing all year. The technical side of things look awful there. So if you're looking for kind of the defensive hedge, I think high quality fixed income is the way to go. If we are at or near peak fed, you know, we would expect rates to continue down at some point in the future, in the near future actually. And so grabbing some yield, some duration while you can is probably a good idea. I think that hedges what still has to be a cyclically oriented equity portfolio. If it's not, you know, the tech and AI sectors working, then it's energy which has been ascendant over the last couple of months. Energy industrials, materials have had a lot of life lately. And so I think you can't get too far away from a cyclical tilt in your equity portfolio, but maybe pair that with some high quality fixed income to add a hedge.

Ross, I'm trying to get a better understanding of where you think this market is actually going. Between now and year end, do you think the market moves higher or lower from here?

If I had to put my money on it, I would say higher. You do have the seasonal challenges of September that we talked about, even if in momentum years like 2023, it's not been quite as bad. But you do also typically get the big rally into year end if you look at the historical seasonal data. So you have that. I do think estimates need to come down, but I don't think earnings estimates are offside by any means. And by and large, the base case is this is a cyclical bull market. We expect some pullbacks and some rough patches along the way. You know, we had a little 5% correction here in August. That's totally to be expected, but the cyclical sectors are what's working. The economic momentum is still to the upside. The fed is in play but is indicated they're at or near the end of their cycle. And so all of it sets up for us for being bullish over the intermediate term. You know, just expecting that volatility along the way and knowing that that might come in the next couple of months, given how strong the year's been through August.

Thanks to Ross Mayfield. Sticking with investment strategy, despite an impressive runup so far this year, my next guest is optimistic the tech bull market rally has more steam. In fact, he's calling for double digit gains between now and year end. Dan Ives is managing director and senior equity analyst at Wedbush Securities. Here's where he draws his optimism from.

I think the reason the bears continue to go into hibernation mode, it's 'cause of growth. I mean, in our opinion, it's transformational growth that we haven't seen in 30 years, not since 1995, start of the internet. In terms of the AI tidal wave, we see a trillion of spending over the next decade. And also then I think street numbers are low, and going into next year, we believe the fed waves a white flag, starts cutting rates, and in my opinion the new tech bull market has already begun.

So Dan, how much more room is there to grow in terms of stock prices?

I think we need 12 to 15% in terms of tech rally rest of the year. And I think going into next year, we could be looking at 20-25% gains for tech, and that could be conservative, Caroline, because when I look across software, across cloud, chips in terms of inventory starting to be worked out, and then you really put cherry on top of the sundae, the biggest transformational tech trend we've seen in 30 years. That's why we're just uber bullish. And I'm not saying that it's not gonna be all winners. There will clearly be losers, but when I look across tech, I view it as probably just a golden opportunity with many that continue to focus on black swan events and a lot of the bears that have called 10 of the last two downturns the last 20 years.

How much of that 12 to 15% will be driven by AI? Because so many of these stocks have already ridden the AI tidal wave as you call it.

But I think when it comes to the AI tidal wave, Nvidia is really the only one where you've actually seen the growth. That's now it hits the rest of the shores of tech, especially when an inflection going into 1Q, 2Q 2024. Actually, a big part of the 12 to 15% increase this year is just many underestimating what the IT spending environment looks like. I mean, if you saw from earning some Palo, CrowdStrike, Okta, and of course bending off in Salesforce with another flex to muscles moment. I think it shows we're seeing stabilization to an increase in IT spend. I think many, at least from an institutional perspective, are underweight tech. And I think ultimately they're gonna have to be forced into buying these names.

When do we start to see Nvidia type of numbers from the rest of big tech? Because Apple, for example, is still posting revenue declines.

Yeah, and I think, look, when it comes to Apple, especially even when you take out currency, they are growing. There's a renaissance of growth in Cupertino. Services, double digit growth. You're going into what I view as what's gonna be a mini supercycle upgrade in terms of iPhone 15. And a lot of the declines you're seeing, not just for Apple in terms of iPads Max, but across the board, just super soft PC environment. But where's the growth? It's cloud, it's AI, high, multiple type of growth. And I think that's something that the street is underestimating going into next year. Something that I've used as an AI gold rush.

Are there any stocks that are flying under the radar right now or that look reasonable based on current valuations, given the runup that we've seen in so many of these names?

I think Oracle. I think Oracle is an example of a name having renaissance of growth in terms of what we're seeing with AI and install base. I think salesforce.com has been under the radar, even though stocks had a huge move. I think we're still in the early innings of where I think this name could go. And then there's some other names, and there's names maybe off the grid that are actually kind of tangential AI place many of us are not talking about. PEGA, Pega Systems is an example. SoundHounds and other, I think, C3 AI is another sort of AI name. And I think, look, we're just in the midst of what I view as an AI revolution. The names like Palantir as well. And I think this is just tip of the iceberg.

Dan, we love to talk about winners with you, but as you said, there will be losers as well. What would you avoid right now?

Some of the legacy names that are just not well positioned, HP, I'd be staying away from SNAP and I think it just shows there's gonna be share losers, there's gonna be ones in the wrong side of things. I think when you look at a name like Cisco, they've been able to actually pivot in terms of what Robinson has done. But to me specifically, it's software, semis, cybersecurity, and I think big tech continues to lead us higher.

Thanks to Dan Ives. Turning to this week's earnings calendar, a few companies are left to report quarterly results including RH, DocuSign and Kroger. Meanwhile, the economic calendar is relatively light, but expect reports on the services sector, wholesale inventories, as well as the Fed's beige book. That concludes this week's market brief. Thanks so much for watching. I'm Caroline Woods and I will see you next week.

September to Remember?

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